JPMorgan Adds Bitcoin to Its Long-Term Forecasts
For three decades, JPMorgan's annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report has helped guide how the bank and its clients allocate investment capital. The research draws on more than 90 investment professionals, covers over 200 asset classes, and underpins the bank's portfolio planning tools. In October, the 31st edition introduced Bitcoin return scenarios for the first time in the publication's history.
The base case puts Bitcoin at 10% a year over the next decade, the highest projected return in its comparison with core investment assets. U.S. large-cap stocks come in at 7.5% and gold at 5.5%. The forecast rests mainly on monetary expansion and Bitcoin gaining a share of the wealth held in gold. The authors still leave Bitcoin outside their main allocation models, citing high volatility and its inconsistent correlation with other assets.
Our Take
In 2017, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, warned Bitcoin buyers: “If you're stupid enough to buy it, you'll pay the price for it one day.” By 2023, he wanted the government to shut it down. Today, his bank models Bitcoin outperforming stocks and gold. We’re pleased to see JPMorgan and its CEO evolve from such a combative stance on Bitcoin.
We see significantly more upside than JPMorgan's 10% base case, and the bank’s questionable technical analysis record gives us little reason to doubt ourselves. Their equity desk expected an 8% gain in 2008; the S&P 500 fell 38%. It was bullish again before the 2022 selloff and bearish before the 2024 rally. More recently, its initial 2022–2025 targets missed year-end levels by 19% on average.
We instead read this report primarily as a measure of Bitcoin's acceptance within traditional finance. Advisers and investment committees can now use research from the country's largest bank to debate an allocation. We expect that recognition to carry weight with investors who have spent years taking their cues from Bitcoin's critics. While JPMorgan's forecasts will likely change over time, we expect Bitcoin's place in institutional portfolios to prove more durable.
Citi Sees Aave Financing Tokenized Markets
Citi Research published a 24-page report this month positioning Aave as potential lending infrastructure for tokenized capital markets. The bank argues that making investments usable as collateral could be one of tokenization's most important applications. Aave's opportunity is to connect those investments to lenders, allowing owners to borrow without selling.
Aave’s Horizon market already lets qualified investors borrow stablecoins against tokenized funds. Aave also accepts Coinbase-issued stock tokens representing Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla as loan collateral. These stock tokens are available to eligible investors outside the U.S.
Our Take
BlackRock launched its first tokenized fund on Ethereum in 2024, and JPMorgan followed in 2025. The network now hosts nearly $16 billion of tokenized assets, excluding stablecoins. We see borrowing against these investments as the next stage of institutional adoption.
Aave's equities market reached $11.5 million of stock collateral backing $5.2 million of loans in its first month, supported by launch incentives. Investors are using tokenized shares to borrow while keeping their stock positions, a business Aave can extend as more assets become eligible collateral.
Horizon shows how that expansion can work. Fund issuers retain control over who can own and transfer shares. Eligible investors can use those shares as collateral to borrow stablecoins from an open pool of lenders. We expect this model to make Aave a major provider of credit for tokenized portfolios.
Binance Suffers the Largest Crypto Hack in History
On October 29, hackers stole an estimated $6.3 billion from Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange. That is more than four times the previous record, held by the $1.5 billion theft from Bybit in February 2025. Binance's initial investigation traced the breach to an engineer's compromised laptop, which gave the attacker enough access to push through unauthorized withdrawals. Blockchain analytics firms TRM Labs and Chainalysis have both attributed the attack to a North Korean state-backed hacking group, and the FBI and Secret Service have joined the investigation.
Fortunately, the industry response was fast. Stablecoin issuers Tether and Circle, along with other partners, froze about $3 billion of the stolen funds within hours. Two days later, Binance said it had replaced roughly 90% of the stolen assets using its emergency reserve fund, insurance funds, and corporate treasury.
Our Take
This hack raises a somewhat uncomfortable question: how will stocks, bonds, and funds ever move onchain if a single compromised laptop can lead to a $6 billion theft? Interestingly, the hackers' own behavior offers some clues.
First, as soon as the funds left Binance, the hackers raced to swap the stolen stablecoins into ether (ETH). This is because Tether and Circle can freeze their issued stablecoins, but no one can freeze ETH. Most tokenized assets are being built like stablecoins, such that the issuer can freeze and reissue a lost or stolen asset to its rightful owner.
Second, while ETH's neutrality worked in the hackers' favor this time, it's also what makes Ethereum valuable to institutions. Banks in different countries can coordinate on one shared ledger and settle around the clock, without relying on each other's government or infrastructure. Each issuer still answers to its own regulators for the tokens it issues, but no single bank, company or country can block the network itself.
That brings us back to the uncomfortable question. If you’re new to crypto, it’s easy to assume that hacks must stop before institutions can move onchain. The reality is institutions can prepare for that risk by building recovery tools into the assets they issue. Those tools give them a way to recover lost or stolen assets while settling transactions on a network no single bank, company or government can switch off.
