# Triple Point Strategy: Expanded Public Content Canonical homepage: https://triplepointstrategy.com/ Content last updated: 2026-08-04T00:00:00.000Z ## July 2026 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/july-26-recap/ Published: 2026-08-04 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Robinhood Puts Its Business on Ethereum On July 1st, Robinhood launched Robinhood Chain, its own blockchain network. Rather than build a standalone system, the company built it as an Ethereum Layer 2. This means a network that processes its own transactions but settles them back to Ethereum, which supplies the underlying security. Robinhood chose not to issue a token for the network, so transaction fees are paid in ETH, Ethereum's native currency. What set the launch apart was that the network arrived with a working ecosystem already on it. Uniswap deployed a trading venue, Morpho supplied lending markets where users borrow against assets they deposit, and Chainlink provided the price data those applications rely on. Robinhood built none of it. Deposits reached $497.8 million by July 21st. ### Our Take Robinhood is a public company with the balance sheet to launch a fully independent blockchain and the customer base to fill it. It chose an Ethereum Layer 2 instead, then handed the financial plumbing to outside protocols already running in production. That tells us what a business actually values when it comes onchain: the liquidity and the audited, battle-tested software sitting on the network before it arrives. Building either from scratch takes years. ETH the asset benefits at both ends of that decision. It is the currency users spend to transact and the collateral those lending markets are built on. As companies move onchain, the trend we keep seeing is that organizations evaluate every option available, choose Ethereum for the liquidity and security already in place, and in doing so make ETH both the asset they spend to operate and the reserve their markets settle against. ## Japan and Russia Write Their Crypto Rules Two governments with very different intentions passed comprehensive crypto legislation within a week of each other. On July 15th, Japan's parliament approved a bill moving roughly 105 digital assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, out of the law governing payment services and into the statute that covers stocks and bonds. Crypto in Japan will now be regulated as an investment rather than as a payment method, which brings insider trading rules, disclosure requirements, and a legal path to exchange-traded funds holding crypto directly. Six days later, Russia's parliament recognized cryptocurrency as property, giving holders standing in court. Exchanges, brokers, and custodians must be licensed by the Bank of Russia, the country's central bank, and retail investors face an annual purchase cap per licensed firm. ### Our Take Japan and Russia want opposite things from these laws. Japan is trying to move household savings into regulated investment products and establish itself as Asia's hub for digital assets. Russia is building a settlement channel for international trade that functions despite its restricted access to the global banking system. What stands out is that two governments with unrelated goals reached for the same tool in the same month: a licensing system in which one financial regulator decides who may operate. This also reframes the conversation in the United States. Across global markets, the open question has become what the rules look like rather than whether there will be rules at all. On that question, the United States is answering later than most, with its own market structure bill still waiting on the Senate floor vote. ## DTCC Moves Wall Street's Settlement Backbone Onchain On July 15th, the DTCC began limited production trades of securities tokenized through the DTC's new tokenization service. This marked the first time the institution that custodies over $114 trillion in U.S. securities settled real assets on blockchain rails. Notable events included JPMorgan tokenizing the Invesco QQQ Trust. The tokenization processes created a digital twin on the blockchain that preserves all the rights, liquidity, and investor protections of the original ETF product. Once tokenized, the assets were then immediately used to satisfy real margin requirements with CME Group. This is the first time a central counterparty had ever accepted tokenized assets as collateral. The full service launches in October 2026, when it opens broadly to all eligible DTCC participants and begins expanding across additional asset classes and use cases. ### Our Take Today, institutions must pre-position collateral across the financial system because moving assets between counterparties takes time. Tokenization and near-instant settlement removes that friction, freeing hundreds of billions to be redeployed productively. JPMorgan's QQQ margin post with CME Group proves this works in a production environment, and the breadth of who showed up (NYSE, Nasdaq, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, and Citadel alongside Circle and Ondo) is a signal that this concept is no longer an experiment the industry is watching from the sidelines. The DTCC has already announced its tokenization service will support integration with multiple public blockchains. Once the service goes live in October, we'll be monitoring where these assets migrate to. The flow of capital will be another signal of TradFi's near-term confidence in public blockchain infrastructure, and will give clues as to where activity and value will coalesce. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## June 2026 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/june-26-recap/ Published: 2026-07-08 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Project Pangea Modernizes the $9.6 Trillion FX Market Unveiled at the Point Zero Forum in Zurich, Project Pangea is a new institutional blockchain initiative consisting of over 50 banks across 16 countries. The effort aims to move the $9.6 trillion-a-day FX market from a legacy T+2 settlement timeline to near-instant finality. This change would eliminate the two-day counterparty exposure window that has defined global FX for decades. Banks will continue to interface using their existing SWIFT infrastructure, however those SWIFT instructions will now be executed onchain via a combination of smart contract actions and regulated stablecoins. The project will use Chainlink for orchestration and Ethereum, Polygon, as well as a purpose-built blockchain, Pangea, for stablecoin settlement. Initial testing will pair the Euro and South Korean Won directly, bypassing the US dollar as an intermediary. This direct currency pairing is a significant departure from how most cross-border corridors operate today. ### Our Take Project Pangea is yet another example of how traditional finance can benefit from the adoption of crypto-based solutions. Collapsing FX settlement from two business days to near-instant finality unlocks balance sheet capacity that compounds across thousands of daily interbank transactions. Additionally, the smart contract settlement eliminates counterparty risk entirely as both legs of a transaction must execute simultaneously or not at all. Removing this risk frees up capital that banks must currently hold in idle intraday liquidity buffers. Furthermore, one of the more underrated design decisions is that participating banks don’t need to change the front end interfaces they use for this to work. SWIFT instructions are sent as usual, and everything that needs to happen onchain is run in the background. This is meeting traditional finance where it is at and a means of adoption we expect to continue in the near-term as banks evaluate other crypto-based solutions. ## ETHLabs Launches to Expand Ethereum Research ETHLabs launched in June as a new nonprofit research organization focused on Ethereum and ETH. Its five co-founders previously worked as senior researchers at the Ethereum Foundation, where their work covered Ethereum’s design, security, scaling roadmap, and economic structure. The lab is backed by BitMine, SharpLink, Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin, Anchorage, Octant, SNZ, and other ecosystem contributors. Its work is aimed at the practical problems Ethereum must solve as more institutions use public blockchains for payments, tokenized assets, lending markets, and automated commerce. ### Our Take The Ethereum Foundation has long been the main research anchor for the network. ETHLabs adds funding and technical talent as Ethereum prepares to support more users, more assets, and more transaction volume without sacrificing reliability or neutrality. BitMine and SharpLink hold large ETH treasuries, so their incentive is tied to Ethereum’s usefulness. Funding ETHLabs gives them a way to support the network behind those treasuries while keeping the research in an open nonprofit structure. For ETH holders, the launch connects ownership with stewardship. Large corporate holders are beginning to fund the public goods that support Ethereum’s long-term value. The model will work best if ETHLabs adds research capacity while preserving the open development culture that made Ethereum valuable in the first place. ## BitMine and SharpLink Join Major Russell Indexes Two Ethereum treasury companies are entering into widely followed U.S. equity benchmarks. BitMine (BMNR) joined the Russell 1000 Large-Cap Index and SharpLink (SBET) joined both the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes. BitMine’s placement is especially notable because of the size of its treasury. The company reported 5.70 million ETH as of June 28, representing 4.7% of total ETH supply. A public company with one of the largest ETH treasuries in the world now sits inside a large-cap benchmark used by passive and benchmark-aware investors. ### Our Take BMNR and SBET’s Russell additions echo Michael Saylor’s Strategy (MSTR) entering the Nasdaq-100 in December 2024. MSTR gave investors amplified bitcoin exposure because the company could raise capital through public equity and credit markets, buy more BTC, and measure progress in bitcoin per share. When the stock traded above the value of its BTC holdings, that premium became part of its accumulation engine. Ethereum treasury companies are trying to build a similar loop around ETH. mNAV measures equity market value relative to the ETH held on the balance sheet. A premium can let BMNR or SBET issue shares, buy more ETH, stake it, and potentially increase ETH per share. Russell inclusion can strengthen that loop in the same way Nasdaq inclusion helped MSTR: by adding index-linked demand, liquidity, and institutional ownership. June’s ETHLabs funding by BMNR and SBET shows the broader upside. Public equity demand can support ETH accumulation and Ethereum infrastructure, but only while investors value these companies as operating platforms rather than passive ETH wrappers. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## The CLARITY Act: What It Means for Investors URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/clarity-act/ Published: 2026-06-15 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - The CLARITY Act splits oversight of digital assets between the SEC and the CFTC. It ends the jurisdictional fight that pushed builders and capital offshore for most of the past decade. - Its central mechanism is the “mature blockchain system” test. A token can start under the SEC as a security and move to the CFTC as a commodity once certain criteria are met. Bitcoin and Ethereum clear the bar today, while many newer tokens do not. - The bill pairs the custody and disclosure standards institutions require with carve-outs for non-custodial developers and self-custody. How far oversight of decentralized finance should reach is the one major question the Senate’s two versions still answer differently. - The shape of the law has broad bipartisan support, while its timing does not. The House passed its version in July 2025, the Senate Banking Committee advanced its own in May 2026, and the obstacles that remain are political rather than structural. For investors, the direction of travel is clearer than the timeline. ## The Last Time We Wrote These Rules The last time the United States wrote foundational rules for a new kind of market, the year was 1933. The country was climbing out of a crash that had wiped out a generation of savings. The stock market had no agreed definition of a security, no disclosure standards, and no single authority policing any of it. Congress answered with the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Those two laws did three things: defined what counted as a security, required issuers to disclose, and created the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to enforce both. That framework has governed American markets for the ninety years since. Digital assets have waited most of a decade for a comparable moment, and the CLARITY Act is the closest the industry has come. The bill amends those same two Depression-era statutes, along with the Commodity Exchange Act. It sets out to do the same three jobs for crypto that the 1930s laws did for stocks: define the asset, require disclosure, and assign a regulator to enforce the rules. The legislation goes by a few names. The House version is the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, known as the CLARITY Act, which passed last year. The Senate has been writing its own through two committees, the Banking Committee and the Agriculture Committee. A final law will have to merge those two Senate versions, then reconcile them with the House bill. CLARITY follows the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin law signed in July 2025, which makes market structure the second chapter of crypto’s regulatory build-out. The first job of any such framework is to settle the question that has done the most damage to crypto by going unanswered: who is in charge? ## Drawing the Line Between the SEC and the CFTC For most of crypto’s history, the legal status of a token was a matter of opinion, and the opinion that counted depended on which agency was asking. The SEC treated most tokens as securities, the investment contracts that demand registration and disclosure. The CFTC treated the largest assets as commodities, closer to gold or oil. Both agencies claimed overlapping ground, and the boundary between them was never set in statute. The CLARITY Act draws that boundary. It sorts digital assets into categories and assigns each to a single regulator. A token sold to raise money, where buyers are backing a team to build something, stays with the SEC as a security. A mature, decentralized network that no longer depends on any one company falls to the CFTC as a commodity. Stablecoins keep their own lane under the GENIUS Act, and the bill directs the two agencies to coordinate where their authority overlaps. For an allocator, the first effect is the removal of reclassification risk from assets that are already widely held. A token that might be ruled a security tomorrow trades at a discount today, a regulatory risk premium that has quietly weighed on the whole category. Assigning each asset to one regulator lifts that premium. Knowing which agency oversees an asset is the starting point. The next question is how that agency makes its rules, and whether a company can read them before it is sued under them. ## From Regulation by Enforcement to Written Rules For years, a crypto company could not learn which rules applied to it until a regulator decided after the fact. The SEC set the boundaries case by case, through enforcement actions brought after a firm had already launched. A founder learned where the line sat only after crossing it and facing a lawsuit. The CLARITY Act replaces that pattern with rules written into statute. It creates registration paths for digital commodity exchanges, brokers, and dealers. It lets those firms operate under provisional registration while the agencies finalize the details. It also puts the SEC and the CFTC on deadlines to write those details, rather than leaving the market waiting indefinitely. A business can read the requirements, build to them, and know in advance whether it complies. The effect reaches the supply of investable projects. Founders who incorporated offshore to escape the ambiguity gain a reason to build in the United States, where the rules are now legible. That deepens the pool of credible, domestically regulated projects an investor can underwrite. A written rulebook tells an operating business how to behave. However, it leaves open the question that has followed the asset class since the first token sale. Must a token remain a security for its entire life? ## How a Token Moves From Security to Commodity This is the part of the bill that does the most original work, because it addresses a problem with no equivalent in traditional finance. A share of stock is a security for its entire life. A token can change. Early on, when a small team controls the code, the treasury, and the roadmap, a token resembles a bet on that team. Once thousands of independent participants run the network and no single party controls it, the same token behaves more like a commodity, an input the network consumes. The CLARITY Act writes that distinction into law through what it calls a “mature blockchain system” test. A token can begin under the SEC as an investment contract asset, sold through a fundraise with the disclosures that implies. It can then transition to a commodity under the CFTC once its network meets the test for maturity. That test turns mainly on control. No single person or affiliated group can hold 20 percent or more of the token supply or its voting power. The code must be open, and the token must have a working use beyond speculation. Bitcoin, controlled by no one, has sat in the commodity category from the start. Ethereum began with a public sale and grew into a network no company commands, which makes it the clearest example of an asset that would complete the journey. Many newer tokens would not clear the bar yet, and would face a project-by-project review. To make the early stage workable, the bill also creates a lawful way to raise capital. A U.S.-organized issuer can raise a capped amount each year under a token registration exemption, currently set in the tens of millions of dollars. The issuer must file an offering statement with the SEC and cannot let any single buyer take more than 10 percent of the supply. The law gives a project up to four years to reach maturity and requires disclosure every six months until it does. For investors, the consequence shows up in how the next generation of projects gets funded. A defined, disclosed path to raise channels early capital into the open, where it can be evaluated, rather than into private deals and offshore vehicles. A token can leave securities treatment behind, but that only matters if the venues and custodians around it can be trusted. The framework pairs the maturity path with the standards that make the market safe to enter. ## Custody Rules, DeFi Carve-Outs, and Who Can Invest A market that wants institutional money has to cover three things at once: how customer assets are held, how the open and permissionless side of crypto is treated, and who becomes eligible to invest. The CLARITY Act addresses each. Start with custody. For years, exchanges mixed customer assets with their own, disclosures were thin, and a run of high-profile failures kept conservative capital away. The bill requires customer assets to be held by qualified custodians and kept separate from a platform’s own funds. It mandates disclosure about how those assets are handled. It extends clear anti-fraud and anti-money-laundering authority across the market. These are the conditions a regulated institution needs before it can hold the asset class for clients. The bill also protects the open side of crypto. Sections 309 and 409 carve out decentralized activity. People who write open-source software, run validators, or operate non-custodial infrastructure are not treated as financial intermediaries. The bill also protects the right to hold your own assets in a self-hosted wallet. This is the part that matters most to the lending protocols and oracle networks that decentralized finance runs on. The carve-out is not settled. The Senate’s two versions disagree on how far oversight should reach. The Banking Committee’s draft would extend anti-money-laundering obligations to some DeFi protocols. The Agriculture Committee’s version defers the question, and the treatment of non-custodial developers stays open as the two get merged. This is the one place the industry is still reading the text line by line. The third effect is on who can invest. Pensions, registered investment advisers, and bank balance sheets can allocate to an asset class only once qualified custody and clear disclosure exist. The standards that protect customers double as the eligibility criteria that admit a much larger pool of capital. Taken together, the custody rules, the DeFi carve-out, and the new eligibility standards form a coherent and largely investor-friendly framework. ## The Politics Holding It Up For all its progress, the CLARITY Act is not law, and the obstacle has little to do with how crypto is regulated. The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on May 14, 2026, by a vote of 15 to 9. All thirteen Republicans were joined by Democrats Ruben Gallego and Angela Alsobrooks. Part of what remains is mechanical. The Senate’s two versions still have to merge. The combined bill then needs sixty votes on the floor, and the House has to accept the result or send it to a conference committee. The harder part is political. A group of Senate Democrats will not support the bill without language barring government officials from profiting off the crypto industry while they regulate it. The dispute centers on the current administration’s crypto holdings. Republicans argue that existing federal ethics rules already cover the problem, pointing to Office of Government Ethics standards and section 208 of the federal conflict-of-interest statute. Democrats want the protection written explicitly into this bill. The provision also sits outside the committees’ formal jurisdiction, which complicates where it can be added at all. Most observers expect a compromise before any floor vote. The White House has set a target of a signed bill by July 4, though the fight could push final passage past the 2026 midterms. Even in the best case, enforceable rules would not arrive until 2027, since the agencies need time to write them after the bill is signed. For an investor, the useful line to draw is between what is settled and what is still moving. The market-structure design has broad bipartisan support. The open fights are political. That makes the eventual shape of the law far more predictable than its timing. ## Our Perspective The provisions point in one direction. Clear jurisdiction lifts the discount that has hung over the asset class. A written rulebook brings builders back onshore. A lawful path to raise capital funds the next wave of projects in the open. Custody and disclosure standards open the door to institutional capital. Each change pushes toward more capital entering a maturing market and the United States reclaiming activity it had been exporting. The framework is kindest to the assets that already meet the test for the commodity category. Bitcoin and Ethereum, the large and decentralized networks, gain the cleanest standing. We view Ethereum as the clearest beneficiary of the maturity path, since it made the full transition from a funded project to a network no company controls. Our read is that direction now matters more than date. The GENIUS Act settled stablecoins in 2025. Market structure is being settled now. The arc points one way, toward a defined and durable place for digital assets in American law, even if this particular bill stalls on a political fight unrelated to its substance. The investors who position for that direction, rather than waiting for the headline that calls it final, are the ones most likely to benefit. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## May 2026 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/may-26-recap/ Published: 2026-06-01 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## The CLARITY Act Clears Senate Banking Committee On May 14, 2026, the Senate Banking Committee advanced H.R. 3633, the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, in a 15-9 vote that broke four months of legislative deadlock. All 13 Republicans were joined by Democratic Senators Angela Alsobrooks and Ruben Gallego after a last-minute deal was struck minutes into the hearing. The bill gives the CFTC jurisdiction over decentralized digital commodities, the SEC authority over digital securities, and continues GENIUS Act treatment for stablecoins. It also creates safe harbors for DeFi developers writing open-source code and a certification pathway for token issuers. The path forward involves merging with the Senate Agriculture Committee's parallel version, a 60-vote Senate floor vote, and final reconciliation with the House bill that passed last July. The White House is targeting a July 4 signing. ### Our Take Clearing the Senate Banking Committee was the single hardest gate this legislation faced. With Ranking Member Elizabeth Warren as crypto's most vocal Senate opponent, and months of stalled negotiation, a party-line outcome was the consensus expectation. The bipartisan 15-9 vote shifted that calculus. With the toughest structural barrier behind it, passage probability has improved meaningfully, even with floor fights on ethics and illicit finance still ahead. Beyond the procedural significance, passage is a major unlock for institutional capital. Banks and asset managers have largely stayed on the sidelines because regulatory ambiguity made the legal risk hard to underwrite. CLARITY removes that. Once law, banks gain a federal pathway to custody, trading, and payments, and asset managers gain a stable framework to build products against. JPMorgan and other major analysts now see meaningful H2 2026 institutional inflows as their base case if the bill clears. ## Japan Opens Its Payment System to Foreign Stablecoins Japan is opening its payment system to foreign-issued stablecoins for the first time. On May 19, 2026, the Financial Services Agency finalized rules allowing certain overseas stablecoins to circulate inside Japan as legally recognized payment instruments, effective June 1. Until now, only Japan-based banks, trust companies, and licensed money-transfer firms could issue stablecoins for domestic use. The opening comes with strict conditions. Only "trust-type" stablecoins qualify, meaning tokens fully backed by reserves held in a trust structure and redeemable at face value. Foreign issuers must also clear Japan's equivalence standards on regulatory oversight and AML controls, and distribution still routes through registered Japanese intermediaries. Circle is best positioned through its existing joint venture with SBI Holdings and is already preparing USDC services ahead of June 1. ### Our Take Asia is where the stablecoin opportunity is structurally largest. The region has the world's biggest remittance corridors, deep dollar-denominated trade flows, and rising treasury demand for tokenized cash. Each of these works better on stablecoin rails than on legacy banking infrastructure. Japan's June 1 opening matters as the first usable regulatory template for capturing that opportunity. Tokyo is one of Asia's most tightly regulated crypto markets, and other regulators routinely study and adapt frameworks that work there. By codifying an equivalence-based pathway for foreign-issued stablecoins, Japan has created a model that others can reference and issuers can plan against. The June 1 effective date could mark the start of a regional unlock. ## DTCC Puts Tokenized Securities on a Live Timeline At the beginning of May, the DTCC announced it will begin limited production trades of tokenized real-world assets starting in July 2026. A full service launch will follow in October. The service covers assets already held in DTC custody, including Russell 1000 stocks, major index ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries. More than 50 firms, including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Circle, have joined the DTCC's Industry Working Group to advise on the service’s roll out. On May 27, the DTCC went one step further and announced a partnership with the Stellar Development Foundation to bring tokenized assets to the Stellar network by H1 2027. This marks the first commitment to bring DTC-custodied securities to a fully public blockchain. ### Our Take For years, a central debate within the crypto industry has been whether legacy financial institutions would ever actually deploy on public blockchains. The Stellar announcement addresses this head on, demonstrating that compliant, regulated trading can happen on open infrastructure. What’s equally notable is the DTCC's multi-chain approach. Rather than picking a single blockchain, it is building the capabilities that will allow these assets to span both permissioned and public networks. Support for other public blockchains, like Ethereum, are expected to follow. We’ve said before that traditional finance and crypto are converging. A $114 trillion institution has just announced it agrees. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## Crypto Is For Humans And Machines: How AI Expands Crypto's Opportunity URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/crypto-ai/ Published: 2026-05-15 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - The investment case for crypto has always been built around human adoption. That framework is about to expand. AI agents are emerging as a new class of economic participant, and they need financial infrastructure that the traditional banking system cannot provide. - For people, crypto offers a better financial system. For AI agents, crypto offers the only financial system that scales to the full range of machine commerce. That distinction between improvement and necessity changes how the opportunity should be sized. - Both human users and AI agents are converging on the same crypto infrastructure. Protocols that serve both audiences benefit from compounding demand, and the combined addressable market is larger than any human-only model reflects. ## A Familiar Pattern In the nineteenth century, America's railroad networks were built to move freight and military resources across long distances. That was the original use case, and it justified the enormous capital required to lay track across the continent. What the original investors and engineers did not anticipate was how dramatically the user base would expand once the infrastructure was in place. Passenger travel emerged as a major second market, and entire real estate economies eventually reshaped themselves around rail access. More than a century later, Apple followed a similar pattern. In January 2007, Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone as three products in one: a widescreen iPod, a revolutionary mobile phone, and a breakthrough internet communications device. In doing so, Apple delivered infrastructure for products that did not yet exist. Uber, DoorDash, Airbnb, Instagram, and Venmo all arrived once the right builders and users found the platform. This pattern, where infrastructure is built for one audience and then finds a second, much larger audience, has played out across centuries and industries. The investors who benefit most are typically the ones who recognize the expansion early, before the market has fully adjusted its models to account for the new demand. The crypto industry appears to be approaching one of these moments right now. For over a decade, the entire investment case for digital assets has been built around human adoption: how many people hold Bitcoin, how many institutions have allocated to crypto, how fast stablecoin usage is growing among consumers and businesses. These are valid metrics and they reflect material progress. But they share a premise that has gone largely unexamined. These metrics are built on the assumption that the only users of crypto infrastructure will be humans. That assumption is about to become incomplete. ## An Upgrade for People, a Necessity for AI The case for crypto as a financial system for human users is well established and continues to strengthen. However, adoption has followed a gradual curve precisely because it is a choice between competing systems. The incumbent system, for all its limitations, has decades of infrastructure and trust behind it. The picture looks fundamentally different for AI agents. An AI agent is software that can make decisions and transact on behalf of a user or on its own. These agents are already operating in the real world through products like OpenClaw and Hermes Agent. As their capabilities grow, so do the volume and complexity of economic activity they generate. The challenge these agents face is that the traditional financial system was designed for humans, and it requires human identity at every layer. Opening a bank account requires government-issued identification and Know Your Customer verification. Payment processors will not touch an account that is not tied to a verified individual or legal entity. Credit card networks typically require a cardholder to have a credit history. Crypto has no such requirements. A wallet can be generated from a cryptographic key pair in seconds, with no identity verification or approval from a financial institution. Once that wallet exists, it can send and receive payments, interact with smart contracts, and participate in decentralized financial protocols anywhere in the world, at any time. For AI agents operating at machine scale, there is a practical necessity for permissionless access. Crypto is the only financial system that supports the full range of agent commerce, from autonomous activity to micropayments to agent-to-agent transactions. The infrastructure to support this is already being built. Coinbase launched wallets designed specifically for AI agents in February 2026 and developed an open payment standard called x402 that lets agents pay for services automatically using stablecoins. In April 2026, the Linux Foundation stepped in to govern x402 as an open standard, with backing from more than 20 major companies. The following month, Amazon Web Services launched Bedrock AgentCore Payments with Coinbase and Stripe, becoming the first hyperscaler to embed crypto micropayments natively into its own managed AI agent platform. Warner Bros. Discovery is among the early enterprises testing it. The institutions building this infrastructure are treating agent commerce as a legitimate and growing market. ## Two Economies, One Infrastructure What makes this expansion particularly relevant for crypto investors is that human users and AI agents are converging on the same financial infrastructure. Ethereum offers the clearest example. A person depositing into a lending protocol and an AI agent paying for compute resources move through the same systems and use the same tokens. This reality also applies to stablecoin payments, lending markets, and onchain exchanges. Agent activity layers new demand onto the human economy already running through these protocols, compounding their value. The scale of the human crypto economy is already notable. According to Crypto.com's 2025 Market Sizing Report, global cryptocurrency ownership reached 741 million people last year, against a total market cap of roughly $3 trillion. The AI agent economy is much earlier but growing fast. MarketsandMarkets projects the global AI agent market will grow from roughly $8 billion in 2025 to over $50 billion by 2030. McKinsey estimates that agentic commerce could account for up to $1 trillion in U.S. retail revenue by 2030, with global projections ranging from $3 trillion to $5 trillion. These two economies are developing on separate tracks, but they converge on the same rails, and that overlap is what makes the combined opportunity larger than either one alone. ## The Year of Product-Market Fit We have been watching the intersection of AI and crypto closely since 2024, when the first signals of product-market fit began to emerge. Experimental projects like Truth Terminal and Virtuals Protocol demonstrated that autonomous agents could interact with crypto rails in ways that generated real economic activity and community engagement. These were early prototypes, but they pointed clearly toward a future where software agents would need financial infrastructure to function, and where crypto was the natural fit. Since then, the pace of development has accelerated significantly. The trajectory from proof of concept in mid-2024 to institutional infrastructure in early 2026 has been remarkably fast, even by technology standards. It follows a pattern that is familiar from how fintech innovation typically progresses: experimental use cases emerge, infrastructure providers take notice, standards form, and institutional capital follows. ## Our Perspective Those early signals in 2024 shaped how we think about capital allocation at Triple Point Strategy. We came away from that period with a conviction that AI agents were going to become meaningful users of crypto rails and that their activity would contribute to long-term growth across the protocols we invest in. That conviction became a core part of how we evaluated opportunities, and it shifted our investment lens from a purely human-centric view of crypto adoption to one that accounts for both. Where we underestimated the situation was the pace. We expected the AI-to-crypto convergence to unfold over several years. The speed at which AI capabilities have advanced, and the speed at which agents have begun generating material economic activity that requires financial infrastructure, have outrun our original timeline by a significant margin. That acceleration has also placed new demands on the underlying blockchains. Networks that want to capture both human and agent financial activity need higher throughput at lower cost than the human economy alone requires. Ethereum's ongoing progress on the blockchain trilemma, balancing security, decentralization, and scalability through its Lean Ethereum roadmap and Layer 2 ecosystem, is encouraging on this front. We believe the networks that solve this scaling challenge most effectively will be the ones that capture the largest share of the combined human and AI financial economy. However, caution is warranted. Agent reliability remains inconsistent, regulatory frameworks for agent-driven commerce are largely nonexistent, and questions around liability, tax reporting, and sanctions compliance remain open. For long-term investors, though, the direction matters more than the exact timing. The institutional commitments already in place signal that the market for agent-native financial infrastructure is a question of when, not if. And because this stack is being built on top of existing crypto protocols, early positioning in those protocols captures optionality on the agent economy without requiring a bet on a specific timeline. Although crypto was built for human finance, it is now becoming essential infrastructure for machine finance as well. The opportunity is compounding, and we firmly believe the market has not yet fully accounted for what that means. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## April 2026 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/apr-26-recap/ Published: 2026-05-04 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Morgan Stanley Enters the Bitcoin ETF Race On April 8, 2026, Morgan Stanley became the first Wall Street bank to launch its own Bitcoin ETF. Under the ticker MSBT, the fund drew approximately $34 million in net inflows on its first day and surpassed $100 million within its first week. This made MSBT the firm's most successful ETF launch to date. Morgan Stanley is looking to compete on cost by undercutting BlackRock’s dominant IBIT Bitcoin ETF. MSBT charges a 0.14% expense ratio compared to IBIT which carries a 0.25% expense ratio. Morgan Stanley's wealth management arm, with approximately 16,000 advisors, has also recommended clients allocate 2% to 4% of their portfolios to crypto. While not yet approved, the bank has also filed for Ethereum and Solana trusts which are the beginning signals of more ETFs to come. ### Our Take Since launching in January 2024, BlackRock’s IBIT has dominated the spot Bitcoin ETF category. Morgan Stanley's entry changes that dynamic. The fee undercut matters at the margins, but in our opinion the distribution angle is what’s worth focusing on. When 16,000 financial advisors begin recommending an allocation to crypto, even if it's small, a very real structural inflow is set in motion. With Ethereum and Solana trust filings in motion as well, two things are clear. The first is digital assets have cleared Morgan Stanley’s internal compliance, legal, and reputational hurdles. Secondly, MSBT is not a one-off product launch. Morgan Stanley is showing their plans to commit to the broader digital asset category. ## Visa Expands Stablecoin Settlement to Nine Blockchains Visa first experimented with stablecoin settlement in 2021, and by late 2025 was running a pilot with integrations across the Ethereum, Stellar, Solana, and Avalanche blockchains. The pilot capability allows Visa's issuer and acquirer partners, the banks and fintechs on both sides of a card transaction, to settle their obligations to Visa's network in stablecoins rather than through traditional banking rails. On April 29, 2026, Visa added five more blockchains, Arc, Base, Canton, Polygon, and Tempo, bringing the total to nine supported networks. This will push the annualized settlement run rate to $7 billion, a 50% increase in live transaction volume compared to the prior quarter. ### Our Take This announcement is yet another example of the “DeFi Mullet” in action: a traditional finance business in the front, with the benefits of crypto-based infrastructure in the back. By taking this path, Visa can offer several benefits to its banking and fintech partners including: settlement that is available 24/7/365, near-instant funds movement, and a more predictable liquidity management environment. All this is being achieved without changing anything at the consumer layer. Our thesis is that over the next 5+ years, we’ll see a meaningful portion of payments move from traditional banking rails to crypto-based infrastructure. We’re positioned accordingly, and this announcement gives us further conviction in that view. ## Strategy Overtakes IBIT BTC Holdings Strategy (MSTR) now holds 818,334 BTC after a $2.54 billion purchase in mid-April and a subsequent $255 million purchase, surpassing BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) to become the world's largest single Bitcoin holder. Funding the accumulation is STRC, Strategy's variable-rate perpetual preferred stock launched in July 2025. STRC is a yield-bearing security designed to trade near $100, pays 11.5% in monthly dividends, and has raised over $6 billion since launch. STRC-funded purchases account for roughly 77,000 BTC in 2026, versus 8,000 BTC across all spot Bitcoin ETFs combined. It also marks the first time since Q2 2024 that a corporate treasury holds more BTC than the largest spot ETF. ### Our Take Strategy increasingly operates as a Bitcoin investment bank. STRC, STRK, STRD, and STRF make up a product shelf engineered to convert distinct slices of TradFi capital into BTC accumulation. STRC has been the breakout because it gives fixed-income buyers a stable, yield-bearing instrument they can hold inside a familiar wrapper. That opens up a pool of capital outside the reach of spot ETFs. We view this as a meaningful expansion of Bitcoin's addressable demand base. As BTC keeps getting adapted to capital markets infrastructure, more investor mandates can carry Bitcoin exposure inside vehicles they already understand. However, there are risks. STRC's funding flywheel depends on continued issuance demand, a healthy MSTR equity premium, and disciplined management of the dividend rate. The model has yet to be tested through a deep, sustained drawdown. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## Why “Bitcoin, Not Crypto” Misses The Bigger Picture URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/bitcoin-not-crypto/ Published: 2026-04-13 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Bitcoin is simple and the obvious entry point, however it has real protocol risks, and its architecture can't capture crypto's biggest opportunities. - Stablecoins and tokenization are trillion-dollar trends built on programmable blockchains. A Bitcoin-only portfolio misses out on them entirely. - NFTs, memecoins, and ICOs are features of early-stage innovation and not a reason to dismiss large parts of a whole asset class - Sophisticated allocators build frameworks, not tribal allegiances. Bitcoin, ETH, AAVE, and LINK solve different problems. The work is knowing what role each plays and sizing accordingly. ## Intro "Bitcoin, not crypto" is a narrative we’ve seen pushed countless times on LinkedIn and other online forums. It's a simple yet effective pitch: Bitcoin is digital gold, a pristine non-sovereign monetary asset. Everything else connected with crypto is either speculation or a scam. For a lot of people, crypto can seem complex, abstract, and rife with fraud. If you’re trying to convince an institution or high-network-worth individual to invest in crypto, it makes a lot of sense to simplify things by separating Bitcoin out as the only legitimate digital asset. While an allocation to Bitcoin has its merits, if you are allocating capital with a multi-decade time horizon, you’d be making a huge mistake to disregard the innovation that other digital assets can offer. ## Simple Doesn’t Mean Flawless Bitcoin is the obvious place to start if you’re investing in crypto for the first time. It's the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has been around the longest, and it is the simplest to understand. However, Bitcoin’s simplicity and size doesn’t make it flawless. The quantum threat and Bitcoin’s security budget problem are unavoidable, existential risks that will require the Bitcoin Core developers to make hard decisions about the future of the protocol. Not only does Bitcoin have its fair share of real risks, but grouping Ethereum, stablecoins, and revenue-generating DeFi protocols with NFT projects, memecoins, and ICO scams is intellectually lazy. In fact, to focus solely on Bitcoin is to ignore some of the largest trends in finance that are gaining traction. ## Trillion-Dollar Trends Bitcoin Isn’t Capturing Stablecoins and tokenization are two mega-trends that Bitcoin is not architected to benefit from. Trillions of dollars in annual transaction volume now run through USDC and USDT, the two largest stablecoins. Stablecoins offer dollar-denominated settlement that's faster, cheaper, and more accessible than traditional banking options. 55% of all stablecoins live on Ethereum, with ETH being the “digital oil” that must be used to mint new stablecoins and facilitate transactions. As the demand for stablecoins grows, ETH along with other general purpose blockchains, stand to benefit based on the transaction volumes each network can attract. For reference, there is currently ~$300B in stablecoins with institutions like Citi estimating they will grow to $1.9T - $4T by 2030. Asset tokenization is arguably an even larger opportunity that will bring real-world assets like treasuries, private credit, real estate, and equities onto blockchain rails. This represents a fundamental restructuring of financial market infrastructure. Tokenized treasuries alone have crossed $11 billion, and major institutions from BlackRock to JPMorgan are actively building in this space. Just like stablecoins, asset tokenization enables traditional financial institutions to transact in ways that are not possible with today’s financial infrastructure. The trend also means heightened demand for the native cryptocurrencies of the blockchains that can attract the most activity. While there may not be a single blockchain to win the space, there is a good chance there will be a “winner takes most” scenario. Unfortunately, Bitcoin is not set up to take advantage of that opportunity. ## Innovation Requires Experimentation, Including Failure While NFTs, memecoins, and Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) deserve their fair share of criticism, their existence shouldn’t invalidate crypto any more than the dot-com bubble should invalidate the internet. Excess and experimentation are features of early-stage technological innovation, not bugs. Family offices and institutional allocators should recognize this pattern. The venture capital model exists precisely because breakthrough innovation emerges from portfolios where most experiments fail. Dismissing an entire category because it includes speculative excess means missing the signal within the noise. NFTs demonstrated consumer demand for digital ownership and provenance. Most profile picture projects will go to zero, but the infrastructure enabling digital property rights has permanent applications. Memecoins are largely worthless, but they've stress-tested transaction throughput and demonstrated retail crypto adoption at scale. Many ICOs were overwhelmingly fraudulent, but they catalyzed the development of new decentralized fundraising mechanisms that will continue to mature. ## A More Sophisticated Framework Institutional and multi-generational allocators deserve a more nuanced framework than "Bitcoin, not crypto." The appropriate question isn't which single tribal narrative to align with, but rather: what role do different digital assets play in a portfolio, and what risks and opportunities does each represent? Bitcoin may function as digital gold, but other crypto assets provide exposure to: - Decentralized computation and smart contract platforms (Ethereum) - Decentralized credit and lending protocols (Aave) - Decentralized trading venues (Uniswap) - Emerging infrastructure and middleware (Chainlink) These protocols aren't competing with Bitcoin, they're addressing different use cases entirely. Lumping them together as "crypto" and dismissing them wholesale means leaving significant opportunity on the table. The "Bitcoin, not crypto" narrative offers simplicity. However, sophisticated capital allocation has never been about choosing the simplest story. It's about understanding the full landscape, balancing risk with opportunity, and building positions accordingly. Institutional allocators and high-net-worth individuals should demand better than a false choice between one asset and undifferentiated speculation. The digital asset ecosystem is complex, evolving, and includes both signal and noise. The work is separating them, not pretending only one signal exists. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## March 2026 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/mar-26-recap/ Published: 2026-04-06 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## SEC and CFTC Issue First Joint Crypto Asset Taxonomy On March 17, 2026, the SEC and CFTC issued joint interpretive guidance establishing a formal taxonomy for crypto assets. This framework organizes assets into five categories: digital commodities, digital collectibles, digital tools, GENIUS-compliant stablecoins, and digital securities. Only digital securities fall fully under SEC jurisdiction; the remainder are subject to the CFTC. The guidance further clarified that activities like mining, airdrops, and staking services fall outside securities regulation when service providers act simply as technical facilitators. This marks the first time both agencies have aligned on a single classification standard, providing the industry with a long-awaited regulatory map for domestic operations. ### Our Take For over a decade, regulatory ambiguity was a primary barrier to the institutional adoption of crypto. This taxonomy significantly lowers that hurdle, providing banks and asset managers with a clear framework to work within. Beyond just defining rules, this joint guidance is yet another signal that U.S. regulators want the traditional finance industry to embrace crypto and blockchain technology. While it’s a massive step forward, this remains interpretive guidance and not law. The next milestone is the CLARITY Act, which will codify this stance in law and introduce additional benefits, such as developer protections. Once law, these legislative guardrails should help crypto and DeFi flourish, cementing the U.S. as the leader in digital assets. ## Stripe and Paradigm Launch Tempo Most new Layer-1 blockchains are a dime a dozen, but some are worth noting. This is especially the case for Tempo, which is a new purpose-built payments network that went live in March and is backed by Stripe and Paradigm. Unlike traditional public networks, such as Ethereum, Tempo settles all transaction fees directly in stablecoins, eliminating the volatility and friction that can come with native gas tokens. The network also debuted alongside the Machine Payments Protocol (MPP). This new open standard enables AI agents to pay for data and other services via stablecoins. MPP was co-designed with Visa, demonstrating yet again that crypto is vying to play a significant role in the future of financial infrastructure. ### Our Take Tempo’s significance is defined by its architects and its timing. Stripe’s involvement validates our thesis that stablecoins are the inevitable future of payments. While permissioned corporate blockchains have historically struggled to gain traction, Tempo has a unique distribution moat, as Stripe already powers payments for millions of businesses globally. What’s more interesting however is MPP. Coinbase’s x402 already serves as an open, crypto-native standard for agentic payments. The decision to build MPP suggests there is something to be won as the standard for how AI agents transact. The decision to launch Tempo as its own L1, versus an Ethereum L2, was a surprise for many in the crypto industry. We’ll be watching Tempo closely to see if it can succeed as a payments-focused blockchain, or if it will fall like many proclaimed “Ethereum Killers” of the past. ## Bitcoin's Quantum Threat Gets Closer As Defenses Take Shape Google's Quantum AI team published a whitepaper on March 31st showing that future quantum computers may be able to crack Bitcoin’s encryption as soon as 2029. These findings add urgency to quantum defense efforts that advanced throughout March. BTQ Technologies launched the first live testing environment for BIP-360, a proposed upgrade that would allow users to store bitcoin in quantum-safe addresses. The proposal targets the same vulnerability Google's paper warns about. Separately, Blockstream Research published a new potential solution to make bitcoin transactions quantum-resistant without degrading the blockchain’s performance. ### Our Take The Google paper is shocking, and the findings warrant genuine attention. But the full picture from March tells a more balanced story. The progress on BIP-360 and the unexpected signature scheme proposal from Blockstream Research show that post-quantum planning is accelerating. Furthermore, Google coordinated its disclosure with Coinbase, the Ethereum Foundation, and Stanford rather than simply sounding an alarm. This signals that the institutions closest to quantum development believe the industry has time to prepare. We wrote in February that the hard part of Bitcoin’s quantum defense is coordination, not cryptography. The developments since have reinforced that thesis, with the cryptographic tools and institutional infrastructure advancing faster than prior upgrade cycles would have predicted. As we said before, the cost of preparing early is modest compared to the cost of being late. Fortunately, preparation from the Bitcoin community is what we are starting to see. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## February 2026 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/feb-26-recap/ Published: 2026-03-01 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## BlackRock Lists Fund On World's Largest Decentralized Crypto Exchange BlackRock's BUIDL fund is a tokenized money market fund backed by U.S. Treasury bills, cash, and repurchase agreements. Each token is pegged to $1, pays daily dividends, and can be transferred onchain around the clock. The fund has grown to approximately $2.4 billion in assets since launching in March 2024, making it the largest tokenized institutional fund on public blockchains. On February 11th, Uniswap Labs and Securitize announced that BUIDL is now tradable through UniswapX, a trading system built by the team behind the world's largest decentralized exchange. Whitelisted investors can swap BUIDL shares for USDC stablecoins at any time, with trades routed through an automated request-for-quote system that pulls prices from approved market makers and settles instantly onchain. The integration combines institutional compliance with the speed and transparency of decentralized settlement. This is BlackRock's first direct use of DeFi trading infrastructure for a tokenized product. The firm also purchased UNI governance tokens, giving it a stake in the strategic direction of a major decentralized protocol. ### Our Take The significance of this integration is in who chose it and what they chose. BlackRock manages over $11 trillion in assets. Uniswap is the largest decentralized exchange in crypto. The decision to connect a tokenized Treasury fund to DeFi trading infrastructure is a strong endorsement of decentralized protocols as viable settlement and liquidity venues for institutional products. The UNI governance token purchase reinforces that signal. By taking a position in Uniswap's governance, BlackRock has moved toward participating in DeFi infrastructure development. That commitment from the world's largest asset manager carries weight for every institution evaluating similar moves. And for Ethereum, this is another entry in a growing list. BUIDL launched on Ethereum, Fidelity's stablecoin is built on Ethereum, and the SEC's recent capital guidance (more on that below) makes it easier for broker-dealers to hold the stablecoins that settle on Ethereum. ## SEC Eases Capital Rules For Stablecoin Holdings Broker-dealers must maintain minimum net capital to absorb losses and protect customers. As part of that calculation, regulators apply "haircuts" that discount the value of a firm's assets, with riskier holdings receiving steeper discounts. A 100% haircut means an asset contributes nothing to a firm's capital position. Until now, because the SEC's net capital rule was never written to address stablecoins, most broker-dealers took the conservative route and applied a 100% haircut to their stablecoin holdings. In practice, this meant that every dollar held in stablecoins was a dollar the firm had to hold additional capital against elsewhere, making stablecoins far more expensive to carry on a balance sheet than economically similar instruments like money market funds. This past month, the SEC's Division of Trading and Markets updated its crypto FAQ to clarify that staff would not object if broker-dealers applied just a 2% haircut to qualifying payment stablecoins, the same rate applied to money market funds. A firm holding $100 million in stablecoins would now deduct only $2 million rather than the full amount, with the remaining $98 million counting toward its capital requirements. ### Our Take The conversation around institutional crypto adoption has focused on products and legislation, but neither matters if the operational plumbing doesn't support them. A broker-dealer cannot efficiently settle tokenized securities with stablecoins if holding them forces it to lock up equivalent capital elsewhere. The 100% haircut was exactly that bottleneck, and removing it changes the math for every regulated firm evaluating stablecoin infrastructure. Broker-dealers that adopt stablecoins can settle trades faster, reduce counterparty exposure, and operate outside banking hours, all while counting those holdings toward capital requirements. Once a few firms capture that efficiency, others face pressure to follow. That adoption curve benefits the networks facilitating stablecoin transactions, and as we noted in January, Ethereum continues to strengthen its position as the default infrastructure layer for institutional crypto activity. ## CFTC Appoints Crypto Leaders To Innovation Advisory Committee In January 2026, the CFTC announced the formation of its Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC), a rebranded version of the agency’s long-standing Technology Advisory Committee. The committee’s responsibility is to help the CFTC “keep pace with how breakthrough innovations, such as artificial intelligence and blockchain technologies, are transforming markets, enabling the agency to develop adaptive regulations and maintain robust financial oversight in a world where change is constant.” On February 12, 2026, the CFTC announced the 35 members who would be included on the IAC. The full list can be found here, but it is worth noting that the committee has broad representation. Members come from crypto-native companies like Coinbase, traditional finance institutions like Intercontinental Exchange, venture capital firms such as a16z, and prediction markets like Polymarket. ### Our Take This is further proof that regulatory agencies are actually embracing the Trump administration’s call to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” The announcement specifically has two things worth noting. The first is that almost half of the members either come from crypto-native companies or have strong ties to the crypto industry. Secondly, these pro-crypto members are being given the opportunity to help shape CFTC policy at the same table as traditional finance incumbents. These two groups working together ensures the rules written for digital assets are credible and it supports our long-term thesis that crypto and traditional finance will converge. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## The Quantum Threat: A Tale of Two Blockchains URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/quantum-threat/ Published: 2026-02-12 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - The quantum threat is real, but finding a technical solution to address it isn’t the hard part. The much tougher task is coordinating a decentralized network to agree on how and when to make a significant protocol upgrade. - Ethereum and Bitcoin's responses reveal deeper governance differences. Ethereum's culture and structure support early action, where as Bitcoin’s lack of a central coordinating institution makes proactive action more difficult. - The private sector is not waiting for protocol-level consensus. Coinbase and VC-backed startups are building quantum defense infrastructure now, which will serve as a new institutional pressure to upgrade the network. ## Same Facts, Different Conclusions Charles Dickens opened A Tale of Two Cities with one of the most famous lines in English literature: “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness.” Set against the upheaval of the French Revolution, the novel follows London and Paris as they face the same existential pressures and choose fundamentally different paths forward. The line endures because it captures something unique about how people can see the same facts, experience the same pressures, and yet arrive at opposite conclusions about what to do. The crypto industry is living through its own version of that duality right now over a technical question with enormous consequences: what to do about quantum computing. The threat is well understood in broad terms. Quantum computers, once they become powerful enough, could break the cryptographic math that secures virtually every blockchain in existence. Private keys could be derived from public ones. As a result, wallets could be drained and trust in the entire system could unravel. But “powerful enough” has not arrived yet, and estimates for when it might range from a few years to several decades. Most coverage of this topic focuses on how soon quantum machines could break encryption and which mathematical techniques might replace the ones we rely on today. These are important questions; however, they obscure what may be the more consequential challenge: coordination. The cryptographic tools needed to defend against quantum computers already exist. Government standards bodies have certified several. But these alternatives come with real engineering tradeoffs: larger key sizes, slower transaction verification, and less battle-testing in production environments than the cryptography they would replace. The underlying math is well understood, and the tools work, but implementing them across live networks requires careful testing and upfront performance compromises. What is missing is a plan for getting millions of users, thousands of nodes, and dozens of infrastructure providers to agree on when and how to switch, and then actually executing that migration across live networks holding trillions of dollars in value. For centralized systems, quantum proofing is hard. For decentralized systems, it is even harder. And that difficulty has split the industry into two camps, most visibly across its two largest blockchains, that see the same facts and draw very different conclusions. ## Ethereum: Moving Early and Moving Publicly At Devconnect in November 2025, Vitalik Buterin warned that quantum computers could break Ethereum's underlying cryptography before the 2028 U.S. presidential election, citing forecasting models that place roughly a 20% probability on that happening before the end of this decade. Shortly after, in January 2026, the Ethereum Foundation made post-quantum security a top strategic priority. After years of quieter research, the Foundation created a dedicated Post-Quantum team, allocated $2 million in funding for research and community education, and launched a regular schedule of open developer calls focused specifically on quantum defense. Today marks an inflection in the Ethereum Foundation's long-term quantum strategy. We've formed a new Post Quantum (PQ) team, led by the brilliant Thomas Coratger (@tcoratger). Joining him is Emile, one of the world-class talents behind leanVM. leanVM is the cryptographic cornerstone of our entire post-quantum strategy... — Justin Drake (@drakefjustin) January 23, 2026 What makes Ethereum's response notable is that both its culture and its coordination model support this kind of proactive action. Ethereum's community has always treated the protocol as a living system, one that evolves through iterative upgrades and a publicly shared development roadmap. That orientation toward change is reinforced by the Ethereum Foundation, which provides institutional capacity that most decentralized networks lack: the ability to fund dedicated teams and organize developers around shared timelines. There is also precedent. In 2022, Ethereum successfully executed the Merge, transitioning its entire consensus mechanism from proof-of-work to proof-of-stake. That was one of the most complex upgrades in blockchain history, involving thousands of validators and billions of dollars in value, and it went smoothly. The community has demonstrated that it can execute large-scale technical transitions when there is alignment on the goal and a credible institutional structure to coordinate the effort. Ethereum's decision to prioritize quantum defense also carries an opportunity cost. The network's development roadmap is already one of the most ambitious in the industry, with planned upgrades to data availability, state management, and scaling infrastructure each representing significant engineering efforts. Developer attention is a finite resource, and elevating quantum preparedness to a top priority inevitably means that other items on the roadmap receive less of it. The Foundation will need to be deliberate about what it deprioritizes in order to make room, because the risk of spreading developer focus too thin across too many concurrent priorities is itself a form of implementation risk. Ethereum's approach reflects a belief that the cost of acting early is small compared to the cost of being caught unprepared. A development culture that embraces change and an institutional structure built to coordinate it are both working in the same direction here. But not every network has those advantages. For Bitcoin, the picture is more complicated, and more contentious. ## Bitcoin: A House Divided The philosophical split over quantum risk does not just run between Ethereum and Bitcoin. It runs through the Bitcoin community itself. And over the past several months, the debate has been playing out in public. On one side stands Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and one of the most prominent figures in Bitcoin’s development history. Back has argued consistently that the quantum threat is real but distant, estimating that meaningful quantum attacks on cryptography are likely 20 to 40 years away, if they arrive at all. He has pushed back sharply against what he calls “uninformed noise,” arguing that Bitcoin developers are working on quantum readiness behind the scenes without needing to broadcast it. In his view, public alarm creates unnecessary market panic, serves the interests of competitors and opportunists, and distracts from the quiet research already underway. Back has also pointed out that Bitcoin’s security model is often misunderstood in this debate: public keys are only exposed when coins are spent, which means much of Bitcoin’s value may be less immediately vulnerable than critics suggest. On the other side, voices like Jameson Lopp and Nic Carter argue that the community needs to start preparing now precisely because Bitcoin’s governance makes large-scale changes painfully slow. Lopp, the CTO of self-custody company Casa, published a formal proposal in July 2025 for a phased migration to quantum-resistant addresses. The proposal includes a controversial provision: if holders do not migrate their funds to new, quantum-safe address formats within a set window, those addresses would eventually be frozen to prevent quantum theft. The stakes are significant. Roughly 25% of all Bitcoin, around four million coins including the approximately one million believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, sits in addresses with exposed public keys that could be vulnerable to a future quantum attack. The tension between these two camps erupted publicly in December 2025, when Back and Carter clashed on social media. Back accused Carter of trying to “move the market” with alarmist rhetoric. Carter, whose venture firm Castle Island Ventures has invested in a quantum-defense startup, responded that too many Bitcoiners remain in “total denial.” The exchange revealed a genuine rift about how urgent the threat is and what the appropriate response looks like. Bitcoiners are in denial about quantum risk so they are accusing me of a conflict of interest. - Yes CIV invested in Project 11 @qdayclock - more to come on that soon - This has been clearly disclosed on the Castle Island portfolio page (https://castleisland.vc/portfolio) since we made the initial investment - I disclosed this in the first sentence of my main article on quantum. Can't get more transparent than that - I led the investment in Project 11 because @apruden08 "quantum pilled" me and I became extremely concerned about quantum threats to blockchains. I put capital behind my convictions, always have. That's why CIV exists - P11 is not trying to "sell" anything to Bitcoin (obviously). More to come on their plans soon, but their objective is to help blockchain users prepare for quantum threats — nic carter (@nic_carter) December 19, 2025 What makes Bitcoin's situation uniquely difficult is that both its culture and its structure work against rapid coordinated action. The community has always been deliberately conservative about protocol changes, treating stability and fidelity to Satoshi Nakamoto's original design as core values rather than constraints. That cultural conservatism is reinforced by a large, dispersed network of node operators and miners and the absence of any central coordinating body like the Ethereum Foundation to fund dedicated research or organize developers around a shared timeline. Bitcoin’s Taproot upgrade in 2021, which faced little meaningful opposition, still required a multi-year process of review, signaling, and activation. A quantum migration would be orders of magnitude more complex, potentially requiring every Bitcoin holder to move their funds to new address types on a defined timeline. These are the same qualities that give holders confidence that the rules will not change on a whim. But what functions as a strength in stable conditions becomes a liability when the network faces threats that demand early, coordinated action. The very thing that makes Bitcoin trustworthy also makes it slow to adapt. This tension has created space for outside actors to step in, and that is exactly what is happening. ## The Private Sector Filling the Gap In January 2026, Coinbase announced the creation of an independent advisory board focused on quantum computing and blockchain security. The board includes some of the most respected names in cryptography, quantum computing, and blockchain research, drawn from institutions like Stanford, the University of Texas, the Ethereum Foundation, and Coinbase’s own cryptography team. Coinbase described the effort as “non-hype based,” signaling an intent to cut through both the panic and the dismissiveness that have characterized the public debate. As an infrastructure player with exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and dozens of other crypto assets, Coinbase cannot afford to pick sides in the philosophical divide between the “prepare quietly” and “migrate early” camps. Its incentive is to ensure the entire ecosystem is resilient, which means helping coordinate preparation across networks and communities that may not coordinate well on their own. The advisory board’s first position paper, expected in the coming months, will focus on how quantum computing could affect the fundamental security layers of blockchain networks. Depending on the rigor and credibility of that paper, it could set the tone for how institutional players assess quantum risk going forward. Alongside Coinbase’s effort, a new wave of VC-funded startups has emerged to build the migration tools and infrastructure that decentralized networks may struggle to produce internally. The fact that well-capitalized investors are putting real money behind these efforts now is itself a signal worth paying attention to. Capital follows conviction, and the conviction here is that quantum defense infrastructure will be needed whether the threat arrives in five years or twenty. The firms backing these ventures are not making philanthropic bets. They are positioning early to build the tools that the industry will eventually require, and they are doing so because they believe the market for those tools is a matter of when, not if. What these investments and institutional efforts share is a willingness to act without waiting for protocol-level consensus. Coinbase is not waiting for Bitcoin or Ethereum to tell it what to do. Startups are not waiting for governance debates to resolve before building migration tools. The preparation is happening, but it is distributed across multiple layers: at the protocol level for Ethereum, in the startup ecosystem for Bitcoin, and at the infrastructure level for the industry as a whole. ## Our Perspective The quantum threat to crypto is real, but the timeline is uncertain. We believe the asymmetry of outcomes here favors preparation. If the quantum threat materializes later than expected, the cost of having prepared early is modest: research spending, developer time, and network upgrades that in many cases improve privacy and security independent of quantum risk. If it materializes sooner than expected and a network is not ready, the consequences could be severe and, for individual holders, irreversible. What we find most encouraging is not just that preparation is happening, but how it is happening. The Ethereum Foundation is funding dedicated teams and running open developer calls. Bitcoin researchers are publishing formal migration proposals for public review. Coinbase has assembled an advisory board that draws expertise from across institutional lines. Startups are raising capital to build tools that serve multiple networks, not just one. This is a free market of ideas operating in the open, with competing approaches being tested transparently and capital flowing toward the solutions that institutions and developers find most credible. That process, messy and contentious as it sometimes is, represents exactly the kind of cross-ecosystem coordination that complex, long-horizon threats demand. The industry does not need to agree on when the quantum threat arrives to agree that preparation is prudent. And it does not need to resolve its internal philosophical divides to make meaningful progress. The work is already underway across communities, across institutions, and across the traditional boundaries that often separate competing networks and their supporters. In our view, we would rather see the protocols we are invested in act too early than too late. The cost of being early will be measured in resources, but the cost of being late will be measured in trust. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## January 2026 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/jan-26-recap/ Published: 2026-02-02 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Fidelity Launches Its Own Digital Dollar On Ethereum Fidelity Investments, the $6.4 trillion asset manager, is launching its first stablecoin. Called the Fidelity Digital Dollar (FIDD), the token will run on Ethereum and is expected to go live in early February. Fidelity Digital Assets, a federally chartered national bank, will issue FIDD. The stablecoin will be redeemable at one dollar across Fidelity's crypto platforms and will also be supported on third-party exchanges. Because it operates on Ethereum mainnet, FIDD can also be sent to external wallets and used in DeFi applications. Fidelity confirmed that reserves backing FIDD will include cash, cash equivalents, and short-term U.S. Treasuries, in line with the reserve standards established by the GENIUS Act. The company plans to publish daily disclosures of coin issuance and reserve values, along with periodic third-party attestations. In announcing the launch, Fidelity framed the stablecoin as a building block for future onchain financial products, noting that it positions the firm to offer broader services built on blockchain infrastructure. ### Our Take Fidelity's stablecoin launch is a vote of confidence in Ethereum and a signal about where institutional crypto adoption is heading. Fidelity did not have to choose Ethereum. It could have launched on Solana for lower fees, opted for a permissioned chain, or waited for a purpose-built institutional network. Instead, it picked the public blockchain that underpins most of DeFi. That choice reflects how traditional finance now evaluates crypto infrastructure: liquidity, security, and composability matter more than speed and cost. Ethereum leads on all three. The pattern here is consistent. BlackRock's tokenized fund launched on Ethereum. Franklin Templeton's tokenized money market fund runs on Ethereum. Now Fidelity's stablecoin joins them. Each new entrant reinforces the network's liquidity advantage and makes it more attractive for the next issuer. For regulated stablecoins backed by major financial institutions, Ethereum is consolidating its lead, and Fidelity's entry accelerates that trend. ## NYSE & Robinhood Announce 24/7 Tokenized Trading Platforms January brought two major announcements signaling the end of traditional market hours. On January 19th, the New York Stock Exchange announced plans for a blockchain-based venue enabling around-the-clock trading of tokenized stocks and ETFs. The platform will combine the NYSE's existing matching engine with blockchain post-trade infrastructure, supporting instant settlement, fractional shares, and stablecoin-based funding. The NYSE's parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, is also working with BNY and Citi to support tokenized deposits across its clearinghouses for transfers outside banking hours. Ten days later, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev unveiled his own vision for blockchain-based stock trading, framing it explicitly as a response to the 2021 GameStop crisis. By eliminating settlement delays through tokenization, Tenev argued that "the trading restrictions of 2021 will never happen again." Robinhood already offers over 2,000 stock tokens for its European customers via Ethereum L2 “Arbitrum,” providing exposure to price movements and dividends for U.S.-listed equities. While currently operating on a 24/5 schedule, the company plans to roll out full 24/7 trading and self-custody in the coming months. This will allow users to withdraw tokenized stocks to their own wallets and potentially use them as collateral within decentralized finance applications. ## Our Take For crypto investors, the signal here is validation rather than immediate opportunity. The core value propositions that crypto has championed for years, 24/7 markets, instant settlement, programmable assets, are now being adopted by legacy institutions and FinTechs as competition increases. That's meaningful directionally, but the benefits to specific crypto holdings will depend on which infrastructure gets selected. Robinhood's choice to use Arbitrum is notable. If tokenized equities drive meaningful volume through Ethereum L2s, that creates sustained demand for Ethereum blockspace and could strengthen the economic case for ETH as a settlement layer. While the potential impact from Robinhood’s announcement seems clear, the same can not be said for the NYSE. The NYSE’s technology stack has not yet been disclosed, and there's no guarantee that public blockchains will be the winners here. It's possible the NYSE will select a permissioned blockchain or a hybrid solution like Canton Network. Until we get more details, the takeaway is that traditional finance is building toward a future that looks a lot like crypto's present. With the right bets, crypto allocators stand to gain from investing in tokens that will accrue value from these new sources of network activity. ## SEC Issues Framework For Tokenized Securities On January 28th, the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance, Division of Investment Management, and Division of Trading and Markets jointly released guidance clarifying how federal securities laws apply to tokenized securities. The statement defines a tokenized security as any financial instrument under existing securities law that is represented by a crypto asset. The SEC outlined two primary categories: issuer-tokenized securities (created by or on behalf of the original issuer) and third-party tokenized securities (created by unaffiliated parties). For the latter, the agency distinguished between custodial and synthetic models. The custodial model is where the token represents actual ownership of the security. On the other hand, the synthetic model represents where tokens provide price exposure without conveying ownership. The SEC emphasized that holders of synthetic tokens face additional risks, including bankruptcy exposure to the third-party issuer. This guidance builds on a December 2025 no-action letter to the Depository Trust Company (DTC), granting three-year relief for the DTC to offer tokenization services for highly liquid assets. This includes Russell 1000 stocks, major ETFs, and U.S. Treasuries. The DTC plans to pilot offering tokenized securities in mid to late 2026. ## Our Take Regulatory ambiguity for digital assets has long been one of the biggest barriers keeping traditional institutions on the sidelines. This guidance directly addresses that. By clarifying that tokenized securities fall under existing securities laws, and by distinguishing between custodial and synthetic structures, the SEC has given compliance teams something concrete to work with. This guidance should be yet another tailwind for institutional crypto adoption. BlackRock and J.P. Morgan have already launched tokenized money markets on Ethereum. We expect to see new entrants now that the regulatory framework is better defined, along with an expansion of product offerings from incumbents who have been waiting for clearer rules before scaling. As was mentioned in the NYSE and Robinhood article, this announcement builds our overall conviction that crypto and blockchain technology will have a significant role in the future of finance. The question simply remains where will these new venues be created and which tokens, if any, stand to accrue the most value as Wall Street transfers trillions of dollars onchain. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## Crypto Staking: How To Earn Dividend-like Income With Crypto URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/staking/ Published: 2026-01-24 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Staking turns crypto into an income-generating asset. Token holders can earn rewards for performing valuable network services like transaction validation or providing insurance. - Unlike dividends, staking rewards are opted into, paid in native tokens (like ETH), and tied to network activity rather than company profits. - Staking rewards come with real risks. Volatility and the loss of collateral, via slashing, can offset potential yields. - Access to staking varies by investment vehicle, making managed DeFi funds like the Marietta DeFi Fund an efficient entry point for diversified staking exposure. ## Intro “You can earn dividends with crypto?” is a clarifying question we hear all the time when talking to investors who are new to digital assets. While crypto protocols don’t offer dividends exactly as equities do, some cryptocurrencies have a mechanism called “staking” that allows holders to earn income on their assets. In this research brief we discuss what staking is, why staking income is different from traditional dividends, and how investors can take advantage of it in their portfolio. ## What Is Staking? At its core, staking is the process of a token holder performing a service for a crypto network. A classic example of a crypto network that leverages staking is Ethereum. The Ethereum protocol needs transactions between parties to be validated, just like other crypto networks such as Bitcoin. For correctly validating transactions, the Ethereum network is willing to pay a reward. That reward is paid in ETH, the Ethereum network’s native currency, and for all intents and purposes can be thought of like a dividend distribution for performing the service. If a token holder wants to verify transactions for the Ethereum network, they will need to put some ETH at stake. This effectively means putting ETH up as collateral, and it is the economic incentive for the token holder to verify transactions as the Ethereum network expects. So long as transactions are validated correctly, the Ethereum protocol will pay the reward and the collateral will remain untouched. If a token holder performing the service decides to act maliciously, for example trying to pass invalid transactions off as authentic, then part of the collateral they put at stake is automatically taken by the network. This process of taking collateral from a staker is called slashing. Verifying transactions is just one example of staking. Aave, a decentralized crypto lending platform, decided to create an insurance fund in the event there are a significant number of bad loans and borrowers cannot repay lenders. While Aave has mechanisms in place to prevent these repayment shortfalls from happening during normal market conditions, black swan events could trigger the need to dip into the insurance fund. Aave offers the ability for token holders to stake their AAVE in the insurance fund. For every day the insurance fund doesn’t need to be drawn upon, stakers earn a reward. If the insurance fund did need to be drawn from, the staked AAVE could be sold (i.e. slashed) to repay lenders. When deciding to stake, it is critical to understand how much the network is willing to pay for the service being performed (i.e. the yield) and whether that reward justifies the slashing risk. ## How Is Staking Different Than Dividends? Now that you understand the core idea behind staking, it is much easier to see why it is different from traditional dividends. Here is a table summarizing a few key differences: | Attributes | Crypto Staking Income | Traditional Equities | | :---: | :---: | :---: | | Source of Yield | Rewards for providing the protocol a service, driven by network activity and fees | Excess cash from profits as voted by the Board of Directors | | Income Mechanism | Active decision to stake | Passive feature of ownership | | Income Frequency | Typically Daily | Quarterly | | Form of Distribution | Native Token (e.g. ETH) | Cash (e.g. USD) | | U.S. Tax Treatment | Ordinary Income | Qualified or Non-Qualified Dividend Income | | Primary Risks | Asset volatility, slashing and smart contract risk | Asset volatility and company solvency | For traditional income investors, the dividend yield is a key metric when building a portfolio. The same concept applies for cryptocurrencies. Below is a chart showing the staking yield of a select group of cryptocurrencies, versus the dividend yields of some established equities. The equities are colored in dark green. # ## Ways To Stake Your Crypto Unfortunately, staking is not yet available across investment platforms and vehicles. For example: - Coinbase and Robinhood offer staking for spot Ethereum, while Fidelity does not. - Ethereum ETFs don’t currently offer staking income, although BlackRock has filed for a new ETF which would offer that feature. It is important to note, however, that liquidity requirements for redemptions mean the ETF may not be able to stake 100% of the assets under management. This hurts the overall yield. - Staking AAVE or LINK is not currently available through any U.S. investment platform or ETF. To gain exposure to AAVE or LINK staking, an investor must interact directly with that protocol on the blockchain or use a private crypto investment fund like the Marietta DeFi Fund. ## Wrap Up Crypto investment strategies have expanded significantly beyond the “buy and hold” mantra that Bitcoin first established. Today, investors can earn income by providing a real service to a variety of crypto protocols. Unfortunately, these income strategies are not always accessible through traditional means, and the income doesn’t come without risk. Investors should strongly consider the yield, relative to the slashing risks, and whether it makes sense for their portfolio. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## December 2025 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/dec-25-recap/ Published: 2026-01-06 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Vanguard And Charles Schwab Expand Crypto Access Vanguard, which has historically been one of crypto’s biggest skeptics, reversed course in early December. The $11 trillion asset manager now allows its 50 million customers to trade select third-party crypto ETFs and mutual funds through a Vanguard brokerage account. At roughly the same time, Charles Schwab signaled it is preparing to go beyond ETFs and toward native access for digital assets. At the Reuters NEXT conference on December 3, Schwab CEO Rick Wurster said Schwab plans to launch spot crypto trading in the first half of 2026. The rollout will be incremental, starting with employee testing and then a limited client pilot. Schwab has also publicly said it expects the regulatory environment to change and that it is getting ready for that shift. ### Our Take For years, many investors had to treat crypto as “outside” of the rest of their portfolio, with different custody, reporting, and operational risks. Allowing crypto ETFs on a platform like Vanguard compresses that gap, while Schwab’s plan for spot trading suggests crypto will soon sit next to stocks and bonds for Gen X and Baby Boomer investors. Robinhood already does this today, and Coinbase has announced plans to move toward a similar multi-asset model that includes equities. It is also worth noting what this does to competitive dynamics. Brokerages are adding crypto because client demand leaks elsewhere when access is constrained. Platforms tend to start narrow, and the early winners are usually the assets that map cleanly to liquid, regulated products. That likely keeps the center of gravity on the most institutionally legible digital assets, while the long tail remains harder to access through mainstream rails. ## Bitwise Launches First Crypto Index Fund Bitwise Asset Management made news last month by launching a first-of-its-kind ETF on the NYSE: The Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (Ticker: BITW). Originally launched as a private trust in 2017, BITW now trades publicly and is designed to give investors exposure to the ten largest crypto assets by market cap. At the time of its uplisting, the fund’s holdings included major assets like Bitcoin (BTC), infrastructure plays like Chainlink (LINK), and newer alt-L1s like Sui (SUI). Bitwise mandates that 90% of the portfolio be allocated to assets that already have existing single-coin ETFs, while capping all other "long-tail" assets at a combined 10%. A full list of the holdings and allocations can be found here. ### Our Take We fully support new ways for traditional investors to get crypto exposure and can appreciate the value a fund like this offers at face value. Unfortunately though, the ETF has structural flaws and it’s hard to argue how it’s a good deal for investors. To start, approximately 75% of the fund is accounted for by Bitcoin, making it effectively a Bitcoin-only ETF that is 3X more expensive than popular options like Blackrock’s IBIT. While the remaining 25% allocation includes promising cryptocurrencies like Ether (ETH), many holdings are older crypto projects that have failed to find product-market fit. Their high market cap is the result of hype from past cycles. While today BITW isn’t as robust as the S\&P 500, we remain optimistic about the future of crypto indexing. The market is clearly maturing. As new protocols driving real revenue find their footing, we expect to see a shift toward 'quality-weighted' indices. Until then, we prefer a more surgical approach to crypto exposure rather than paying a premium for a basket of legacy digital assets. ## Crypto Regulation Shows Real Signs Of Momentum U.S. crypto policy moved forward on two fronts in December: leadership and legislation. First, on the leadership side, the CFTC officially transitioned to Chairman Michael Selig, who was confirmed and sworn in in December. Commentary from industry legal observers has consistently flagged crypto as likely to sit at the top of his agenda. Notably, he has praised bipartisan market structure efforts and signaled the agency would move quickly to implement new crypto legislation if enacted. Second, Senate market structure work appears to have a concrete near-term waypoint. Reporting from Crypto in America indicates the Senate Banking Committee landed on Thursday, January 15, 2026 for a markup of crypto market structure legislation that has been under negotiation for months. This follows earlier attempts that stalled over items like DeFi treatment, token classification, and stablecoin reward features. The market structure legislation builds on the House-passed Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (CLARITY Act), which cleared the House this past summer and was later referred to the Senate. ### Our Take A useful way to frame all of this is that crypto is transitioning from “regulation by enforcement” to “regulation by framework.” December’s milestones support that view: - A confirmed, pro-crypto CFTC chair matters because a large share of what market participants experience as “regulation” is how leadership prioritizes guidance, examinations, and enforcement posture. - A markup date matters because it converts negotiations into an executable legislative process, even if the outcome still depends on votes and bipartisan compromise. - The CLARITY baseline matters because it provides a House-passed reference point that Senate drafts and committee work can build from, rather than starting from a blank slate. Our base expectation is that market structure progress will continue to arrive in steps. However, we can confidently say that progress is accelerating. The market impact will likely be most pronounced once agencies publish implementable rules and market participants can build to those standards with confidence. At that point, regulatory clarity becomes an enabler rather than a constraint, unlocking broader institutional participation and allowing larger pools of capital to move into crypto markets. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## The Debasement Trade: How Crypto Offers Shelter From A Diluted Dollar URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/debasement-trade/ Published: 2025-12-13 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Some analysts argue the U.S. is pursuing a “stealth default” by using inflation to erode the real value of its debt. - The dollar ultimately runs on trust in institutions, and history shows that trust can break quickly when fiscal discipline weakens. - Digital assets offer an alternative trust model: transparent ledgers and rule-based supply set by code, not policymakers. - Holding assets outside the banking system can diversify counterparty risk and provide a hedge against financial repression or capital controls. ## Why Investors Fear A Debased Currency The United States is spending far more than it earns. Trillion-dollar deficits have become routine, and the national debt now exceeds $38 trillion. Servicing that debt is getting painfully expensive. In 2025, interest payments on the debt are projected to climb to roughly $1 trillion, rivaling the largest single line items in the federal budget. With debt still rising and interest rates no longer near zero, those costs are soaring. If you are an investor, you might ask, “How will we pay for all this?” The United States’ answer appears to be to inflate the debt away. In other words, let the dollar’s value erode through higher inflation so that past debts become easier to handle. Some economists view this approach as a prolonged and stealthy default: paying creditors back in currency that is worth less. Respected investors in traditional finance are also sounding the alarm and hedging against currency “debasement.” One of the most influential is Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates. He has publicly warned that rapid borrowing and persistent deficits are devaluing fiat money and advises holding a modest share of a portfolio in gold and bitcoin as a hedge against the dollar losing value. Dalio is known for pragmatic investing, and his view is that serious investors should own at least some “sound money” assets as protection. ## History’s Cautionary Tales: When Money Dies History offers many clear cases of governments weakening their own money to escape heavy debts. Let’s look at three well-known examples and the consequences of currency debasement. ### Roman Empire (1st to 3rd Centuries CE) In Ancient Rome, emperors gradually reduced the silver content of coins to fund wars and public spending. Nero began this process by lowering the purity of the denarius. Over the next two centuries, later emperors continued to dilute the currency, replacing silver with cheaper metals such as copper and tin. As silver content fell, prices rose and trust in money declined. Markets functioned less well as tax collection weakened and trade slowed. By the mid-third century, the Roman currency had lost most of its value. The economic ripple effects were severe. Savings evaporated and merchants demanded payment in goods rather than coins. Even the military felt the strain as soldiers’ pay lost value and loyalty shifted toward whichever general could actually afford to pay them. Economic instability spread through the empire and the currency became close to useless. ### Weimar Germany (1920s) After World War I, Germany struggled with heavy reparations and a damaged economy. The government resorted to printing money to meet its financial obligations, which pushed the country into hyperinflation. By 1923, prices rose at extreme speed. Savings collapsed, wages fell behind rising costs, and businesses could not plan beyond a few days. Many families lost everything they had stored in bank accounts. The broader economy became chaotic. Trade slowed, foreign suppliers refused to accept the German mark, and social tensions increased. The currency ultimately collapsed and became functionally worthless, destroying the middle class and wiping out generational wealth that had taken decades to build. ### Zimbabwe (2000s) During the 2000s, Zimbabwe faced a deep economic crisis with falling production, high unemployment, and growing government debts. To cover its expenses, the government created more money. This triggered one of the most extreme episodes of hyperinflation in modern history. Inflation reached astonishing levels. Prices doubled within hours, and banknotes with massive numbers appeared in circulation. Businesses stopped accepting the local currency, workers demanded foreign money, and ordinary people were forced to use barter or U.S. dollars to buy food. In the end, the Zimbabwean dollar failed completely. The currency was abandoned because it could no longer serve any useful purpose, and the wealth stored in it was wiped out. ## Echoes of Today: Is The U.S. On A Similar Path? Throughout these historical cases, we see that excessive debt leads governments to expand the money supply. The dilution of currency weakens trust and raises prices. When this continues long enough, the currency collapses and the wealth tied to it is destroyed. This raises a natural question: Is the United States headed down the same path? So far, confidence in the U.S. dollar endures. Investors still flock to it in times of crisis. Yet confidence is fragile. Debt is at record highs and climbing faster each year. Interest costs are rising sharply, consuming nearly a trillion dollars annually. Political gridlock makes meaningful deficit reduction difficult. The temptation to rely on inflation to lighten the debt burden is growing. In recent history, the British pound held the same privilege that the U.S. dollar does today. Over time, chronic deficits and overextension eroded that dominance. The same forces could someday challenge the dollar’s supremacy if discipline continues to slip. Market analysts have started using a phrase to describe how investors are reacting to this situation: the debasement trade. It refers to investors gradually shifting their portfolios away from government-issued currencies and government debt toward hard assets such as gold, real estate, and crypto. ## Why Crypto Belongs In The Debasement Trade Gold has long been the classic hedge against reckless policy and weakening currencies. In the twenty-first century, crypto has emerged alongside it. Assets such as bitcoin and ether offer a way to step outside the potential blast radius of a failing U.S. government or Federal Reserve. Four qualities make them particularly relevant in that context. ### Separation of money and state The U.S. dollar is managed by human institutions. Congress runs deficits, the Treasury issues debt, and the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates and expands or shrinks its balance sheet. In practice, this means the supply of dollars can grow quickly when political or financial pressures demand it. There is no fixed cap on how many dollars can exist. Bitcoin was built as a direct contrast to that model. Its monetary policy is set in code, with a maximum supply of twenty-one million coins. That limit does not change if the United States runs larger deficits or if the Fed needs to stabilize markets. Ethereum follows a similar idea, with issuance rules defined and updated by its network rather than by a single government. This creates a clear distinction. The dollar is tied to U.S. fiscal and monetary decisions. Bitcoin and Ethereum exist outside that process. For investors who worry that future U.S. policy could erode the value of the dollar, this separation is the core reason crypto appears in the debasement trade. ### Trust but verify The U.S. financial system is built on trust in data provided by institutions. Dollar users rely on data from the Federal Reserve, commercial banks, regulators, and government agencies. Money supply figures, bank balance sheets, and inflation statistics are all reported after the fact. Most people cannot independently verify what is happening inside the system. They accept that the numbers are accurate and that the rules will be applied fairly. Crypto takes a different approach. Every transaction and every unit of bitcoin or ether is recorded on a public ledger. Anyone can verify total supply, movement of funds, and the rules that govern the system. There are no special reporting windows or privileged insiders who see a different set of books. In a world where the value of the dollar depends on the judgment of a few key institutions, this level of transparency matters. It gives investors a way to hold part of their wealth in a system where monetary facts can be checked directly rather than inferred from official reports. ### Technology that mitigates counterparty risk Dollar assets usually sit inside the banking and capital markets system. They depend on intermediaries such as banks, brokers, and custodians. These intermediaries can fail, restrict withdrawals, or face political pressure. The United States has strong legal protections, but recent history still includes bank failures and targeted account freezes. Crypto assets work differently. Ownership is controlled by private keys and secured by cryptography and distributed consensus. There is no single authority that can arbitrarily inflate the supply, rewrite balances, or decide that certain holders no longer have access. The network itself enforces the rules. For investors who worry that rising U.S. debt might lead to more aggressive financial repression, capital controls, or stealth taxes on dollar savings, this structure offers a form of insurance. Crypto cannot remove all risk, but it shifts a portion of wealth into a system that is less exposed to the same policy tools that affect the dollar. ### Store of value qualities The U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency, backed by the “full faith and credit” of the United States government rather than by a fixed supply of money or a direct claim on real assets. That backing has been powerful for decades, but it is still a political promise made by a single nation-state. Like empires before it, that promise can be strained by rising debts, political gridlock, or a loss of fiscal discipline. The dollar is not designed to be scarce, and over long periods inflation reduces its purchasing power. U.S. bonds and savings accounts can offset some of this, yet real returns often fall when rates stay below inflation or when policy leans toward supporting borrowers over savers. Bitcoin and Ethereum approach the store-of-value problem from a different angle. Both are global assets with no central issuer and no dependence on the creditworthiness of a single government. Bitcoin emphasizes programmed scarcity. Its supply is capped, its monetary policy is enforced by open-source code, and its security comes from a distributed network of participants rather than a central bank. This makes it akin to digital gold that is hard to create, easy to store, and simple to move across borders. Ethereum functions more like digital infrastructure. Ether powers a worldwide network of applications that handle payments, lending, trading, and other services onchain, secured by validators distributed across many jurisdictions. Owning ether is closer to holding a stake in a growing global computational economy than to holding cash or a claim on one country’s balance sheet. Beyond bitcoin and ether, other digital assets support specific parts of this new onchain economy. Each one derives value from verifiable scarcity or real utility inside its own system. Together, they give investors tools to diversify away from exclusive reliance on the U.S. dollar and the promises of any single nation-state at a time when concerns about debt and monetary debasement are rising. ## A Hedge, Not A Short Owning crypto in the face of monetary debasement is about prudence. You do not need to believe the dollar will fail to see the logic in holding an asset that operates under a different set of rules. Crypto can serve the same role that gold and real estate do: a modest allocation that hedges against policy mistakes and long-term inflation. The difference is that crypto exists entirely in digital form and can be audited, transferred, or stored anywhere in the world at any time. Access has become easy. You can now buy bitcoin and ether through regulated spot exchange-traded funds, institutional custodians, or direct ownership. Allocations can be small. Even a few percentage points of exposure can serve as an insurance policy against the erosion of purchasing power. Diversification is ultimately the heart of the debasement trade. By holding assets that function under different assumptions, you are protecting yourself from the possibility that one system’s assumptions fail. ## Conclusion Currency debasement is one of the oldest tricks in the book. It has rescued governments in the short term and ruined them in the long term. From Rome’s fading silver to Weimar’s printing presses and Zimbabwe’s runaway notes, history shows what happens when money becomes a political tool. While it is unlikely that the United States is on the verge of hyperinflation, the incentives to dilute the currency are real. In a world where money is increasingly subject to politics, holding assets governed by code is one way to ensure that part of your wealth remains outside the danger zone of fiat collapse. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## November 2025 Crypto Market Recap URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/nov-25-recap/ Published: 2025-12-02 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Aave Announces Its Savings App Aave, the largest decentralized crypto lending and borrowing protocol, launched a consumer savings app that more people should be excited about. Up to 9% APY on your cash, $1M in deposit insurance, and a balance that updates every second are some of the key features to look forward to. Aave’s app is powered by crypto infrastructure on the backend but does away with the seed phrases, wallet management, and other friction points that make onboarding to crypto so challenging. Packaged in a slick UI, users will be able to fund their savings account by simply connecting an existing bank account or card. You can join the waitlist here. ### Our Take Aave’s savings app embodies the “DeFi mullet,” an idea that crypto advocates have talked about for years. The concept is simple: an intuitive, consumer-friendly app front-end with a serious crypto infrastructure back-end. Consumers get something that looks like a normal high-yield savings account, but with features and rates that beat most banks and money market funds. We expect the “DeFi mullet” will apply beyond new apps from crypto-native companies. Banks and other traditional financial institutions will likely integrate products, like stablecoins, in the same way. Your bank account will look and feel as it does today, but on the back-end, your bank will be hooked into crypto rails that allow for money to move in seconds rather than days. ## Texas, Harvard, And The UAE Announce Bitcoin Purchases November marked another month of Bitcoin’s growing institutional adoption. The State of Texas, Harvard University’s endowment fund, and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council all added Bitcoin to their balance sheets. Texas made history by becoming the first U.S. state to purchase Bitcoin for its newly legislated Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The state made an initial $5 million purchase out of the $10M it is authorized to spend on acquiring Bitcoin. In the same month, SEC filings revealed Harvard University’s endowment fund had tripled its Bitcoin exposure in Q3. The $326 million in new holdings is a massive vote of confidence from a traditionally conservative asset manager. Lastly, the Abu Dhabi Investment Council (a UAE sovereign wealth arm) reportedly tripled its Bitcoin exposure, pushing its holdings to over $500 million. ### Our Take Historically, reputational risk has been one of the primary barriers to entry for institutional allocators. If an investment manager bought Bitcoin and it crashed, they were fired. If they ignored it and it rallied, they were "prudent." When stewards of multi-billion dollar investment funds start buying Bitcoin, it suddenly grants implicit permission for every other investment committees to do the same. Slowly but surely, we expect the narrative will shift from “owning Bitcoin is reckless” to “not having Bitcoin exposure is risky.” ## J.P. Morgan Launches JPMD Token On Base J.P. Morgan has launched its new deposit token “JPMD” on Base, an Ethereum Layer 2. JPMD represents a 1:1 claim on a U.S. Dollar deposit, and it is exclusively for institutional clients (i.e. corporations, asset managers, etc.) who have completed extensive KYC/AML checks. Unlike a stablecoin, JPMD is a direct bank liability. This means it is subject to the same strict regulatory, capital, and liquidity requirements as a traditional bank deposit. The deposits are also eligible for FDIC insurance, a protection that non-bank stablecoins (like USDC or USDT) simply do not offer. The launch on Base allows these institutional clients to move dollars between each other 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, with settlement in mere seconds. This is opposed to the limitations of traditional bank wires which have cut-off times and are unavailable on weekends. Clients can use the token to directly interact with the growing ecosystem of Tokenized Real-World Assets (RWA) and other compliant onchain DeFi applications. ## Our Take This is a big deal because it validates: - There is value for institutions to use public blockchains, benefiting assets like ETH, and that their onchain activity won’t be limited to private and permissioned blockchains alone. - Financial institutions see the efficiencies that come with 24/7 settlement via a public blockchain versus legacy financial infrastructure. We see this as a strong signal that institutions will continue to adopt public blockchain infrastructure. - Tokenized real-world assets and DeFi have staying power. While it's too early to tell which trading and liquidity venues will win (we have some ideas and are positioned accordingly), it's clear DeFi has a path to broader adoption within the financial services industry. We’ll be keeping an eye out to see if other large institutional players follow suit in 2026 and beyond. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## Project Crypto Decoded URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/project-crypto/ Published: 2025-08-09 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Clearer Rules for Crypto Assets – The SEC is moving away from vague “regulation by enforcement” toward a transparent framework that classifies digital assets and gives builders legal certainty. - Modernized Regulations – Outdated custody rules will be updated, a single “super-app” license will simplify compliance, and both traditional and decentralized markets will be accommodated. - Innovation-Friendly Approach – The new “Innovation Exemption” will create a regulatory fast lane for new products, encouraging experimentation while protecting investors. - Catalyst for U.S. Crypto Leadership – With clarity and support, the U.S. aims to attract global talent, spur institutional investment, and accelerate adoption of blockchain-based products and services. ## Intro So far, 2025 has been a landmark year for the crypto industry. The President of the United States has declared he wants to make the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” stablecoin legislation has been signed into law, and now SEC Chairman Paul Atkins is launching “Project Crypto.” Those who were around crypto during the Gary Gensler era know the damage that “regulation by enforcement” did to the industry. Crypto talent innovated overseas, U.S. customers were restricted from participating in certain onchain activities, and institutional crypto adoption grinded to a halt. With the launch of Project Crypto however, the SEC is making a major pivot towards global crypto dominance. In this research brief, we discuss 5 key takeaways from the SECs newest initiative and what it could mean for crypto markets moving forward. ## Project Crypto: 5 Key Takeaways Chairman Atkins opened his speech acknowledging that U.S. financial markets have innovated and transformed over the last two centuries. We went from the Buttonwood Agreement in 1792 which laid the foundation for the New York Stock Exchange, to paper stock certificates that were physically traded up and down Wall Street in the 1960s, to the fully electronic experience we know today. Looking forward, Chairman Atkins believes crypto is the next evolutionary step for U.S. financial markets, offering improvements in speed, efficiency, and transparency. He believes leaning into crypto’s innovative potential is critical for attracting “a nation of builders,” and ensuring U.S. financial markets remain the cornerstone of the global economy. As we move through the key takeaways, there is one theme that we want to make clear. The SEC is embracing crypto and wants reasonable, accommodating regulation that keeps investors protected. ### 1. Clarity on Asset Classification Old SEC: Use the subjective Howey Test to determine if the crypto asset you want to launch is subject to federal securities laws. If the SEC decides you are subject to securities laws and are in violation of them, we’ll sue and shut you down. New SEC: Here’s a clear framework detailing different crypto token categories. Let’s work together to ensure you have clarity on where your asset fits in the framework, so you can operate with confidence. Under Gary Gensler, the SEC did a poor job of providing clarity on whether a digital asset is a security or not. Chairman Atkins stated that most digital assets are not securities and wants the agency to provide clear categories (such as digital collectibles, digital commodities, or stablecoins) for market participants to slot into. If a digital asset does qualify as a security, he wants the SEC to have a clear regulatory framework that allows crypto asset securities to flourish within U.S. markets. Chairman Atkins wants builders to choose the U.S. for its legal certainty and an accommodating regulatory environment, rather than exclude Americans to avoid complexity and unclear rules. Decentralized finance (DeFi) offers exciting ways for token holders to benefit from a protocol’s success, and Chairman Atkins wants to make sure Americans can take advantage of the opportunity if they wish. ### 2. Modernization Outdated Custody Rules Old SEC: The current custody laws didn’t consider crypto, but we don’t plan to overhaul them. You’ll need to jump through hoops to be compliant. New SEC: Let’s not overburden intermediaries with outdated custody regulations. Let’s give you options based on the type of business you are trying to run. One of crypto’s unique attributes is the ability to self-custody your digital assets. As Chairman Atkins explains, “the right to have self-custody of one’s private property is a core American value.” The current custody laws and regulations weren’t built with crypto or self-custody in mind. Project Crypto will aim to modernize the SEC’s custody requirements for registered intermediaries, ensuring they have options which are efficient for their line of business while adequately protecting investors. ### 3. Support For "Super-Apps" Old SEC: You’ll need 50 state licenses and multiple federal licenses if you want to offer financial services across the U.S. New SEC: We should just have “one license to rule them all,” it simplifies things for everyone. Embracing crypto means being able to support a wide variety of financial products and services (i.e. stablecoins, trading, lending, etc.). The SEC wants to make it simple for companies and institutions to offer all those services under a single license. Under the “Super-App” vision, users should be able to trade traditional securities, security digital assets, and non-security digital assets next to one another on the same platform. The goal here is to not constrain innovation to just the large institutions that can bear the regulatory burden. To Chairman Atkins, a greater choice in venues means more competition, which ultimately benefits the consumer. ### 4. Making Room For Decentralized Finance Old SEC: All financial markets require intermediaries, let’s exclusively build rules and regulations based on that assumption. New SEC: Crypto has shown us that you don’t always need an intermediary to operate financial markets. Let’s make sure traditional and decentralized markets can operate efficiently and fairly. Federal securities laws have always assumed that an intermediary is present and requires regulation. Decentralized finance (DeFi) has shown us that this doesn’t have to be the case through technologies like automated market makers. Chairman Atkins wants to ensure there is room for both traditional and decentralized financial markets. Acknowledging that there are multiple ways for financial markets to succeed is key, and it serves as the foundation for traditional financial institutions to eventually move onchain. ### 5. Creating An "Innovation Exemption" Old SEC: Be careful about what new products and services you decide to launch. We won’t work with you to provide regulatory clarity, and if we think you’re violating securities law, we’ll shut you down. New SEC: Want to try something new that doesn’t neatly fit within current security laws? Great, let’s make sure your product aligns within some guardrails to protect investors, and we’ll finalize more formal rules and regulations over time. In his introduction, Chairman Atkins noted “the future is arriving at full speed—and the world is not waiting.” With this in mind, he wants the SEC to develop a regulatory fast-lane that would allow new products and business models to come to market, even if they don’t fully comply with existing rules and regulations. The “Innovation Exemption” would be there to encourage new products, while ensuring principles-based conditions are met to meet the goals of federal securities laws. ## Wrap Up: Where The Puck Is Heading In plain english, Project Crypto is a big deal. It sets the tone for the SEC’s posture towards crypto going forward: one that embraces its innovative potential rather than stifling it. As progress on Project Crypto moves forward, we believe we’ll see the following: - Greater Institutional Capital Inflows: Regulatory clarity has been the biggest hurdle for institutional investors. With a clear rulebook, we should expect a significant influx of capital from traditional finance players who have been waiting on the sidelines. This should drive up market valuations and increase liquidity across the board. - New Innovative Products: By making the U.S. a more welcoming and predictable environment, Project Crypto will encourage entrepreneurs to build here rather than abroad. Capitalism will ensure the products which add the most value will thrive, and the U.S. will attract human and monetary capital as the leader in blockchain-based innovation. - Accelerated Crypto Adoption: The roll out of new products, services, and “super-apps”, will make crypto more accessible to the average person. Increasing accessibility will shine a light on crypto’s benefits and make people more comfortable with the technology. Growing consumer adoption will encourage more companies to build blockchain-based applications, which will cement crypto’s role as critical societal infrastructure. Overall, we are very bullish on Project Crypto’s potential. It aims to set clear rules of the road, while embracing innovation and ensuring investors are protected. Project Crypto has the potential to significantly boost onchain activity with both consumers and institutions. For the investor who understands which protocols will be critical in this transition, the rewards could be massive. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## Fixing Bitcoin's "Pet Rock" Problem URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/pet-rock/ Published: 2025-08-02 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Bitcoin isn’t limited to “digital gold”—it can generate income: By tapping into DeFi protocols, holders can turn idle Bitcoin into a yield-bearing asset. - We discuss four proven strategies for earning yield: Lending, liquidity provisioning, stablecoin minting, and Layer 2 staking, each offering unique risk/reward profiles. - DeFi rewards the informed investor: Understanding smart contract risk, volatility, and platform credibility is key to safely converting your "Pet Rock" into a productive income engine. ## Intro The Pet Rock phenomenon was a brief yet bizarre moment from August 1975 to February 1976. In that time, Gary Dahl, the inventor, sold an astonishing $5.9 million worth of Pet Rocks (that's approximately $34.5 million in today's dollars). Marketed as the ultimate low-maintenance companion, the Pet Rock required no feeding, walking, or vet bills—it simply was. Despite its initial charm as a novelty, the Pet Rock quickly revealed its lack of real value or utility. Today, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon argues a new Pet Rock exists. This time, it's digital, permeating financial markets, and known as Bitcoin. Beyond peer-to-peer transfers, Bitcoin's utility, according to Dimon, is limited. Unlike gold, Bitcoin isn't a physical commodity; unlike a dividend stock, it's not yield-bearing; and unlike Ethereum's native token ether, it doesn't power a decentralized application ecosystem. Bitcoin, in his view, merely appreciates based on its "digital gold" narrative. But what if Bitcoin could be more than a Pet Rock? What if it could become a productive, income-generating asset? The good news: it can. The not-so-good news is accessing this productivity isn't as simple as buying an ETF or holding bitcoin on Coinbase. Unlocking Bitcoin's true productive potential requires a deeper dive into the complex, yet rewarding, world of decentralized finance (DeFi). When you’re working with DeFi, a strong understanding of blockchain protocols, smart contracts, and associated risks is key. For the investor willing to navigate this frontier, here are 4 ways to turn your Bitcoin into both an appreciating and income-generating asset. ## How To Turn Your Pet Rock Into An Income Engine Before jumping in, it's crucial to understand that the Bitcoin network doesn’t natively support the most common ways to earn yield on your bitcoin. To leverage DeFi's full potential, you'll often need to “wrap” your bitcoin into a tokenized version for use on other networks. This “wrapping” process exchanges your bitcoin for a 1:1 representation, known as wrapped bitcoin (WBTC). Think of it like trading in $100 cash for a $100 chip at a casino. WBTC can be used to earn yield on networks like Ethereum, just like casino chips can be used to play games at the Bellagio. When ready, you always have the flexibility to swap the WBTC back to bitcoin. Many platforms and apps provide their own variation of WBTC. For example, Coinbase allows you to wrap your bitcoin into Coinbase BTC (cbBTC). CbBTC follows the same principles as WBTC, just with a different platform facilitating the tokenization process. With that topic covered, let’s review four ways you can earn yield on your bitcoin using DeFi. ### 1. Lending on Decentralized Lending Protocols How it works: You deposit your wrapped bitcoin into a decentralized lending protocol like Aave or Compound. Borrowers take out collateralized loans, and you earn interest (expressed as APY) on your deposited wrapped bitcoin. Typical Yields: Less than 1% APY on popular platforms, although yields can spike during periods of high demand. Risks: * Liquidation Risk: While borrowers are typically required to over-collaterize their loans, extreme market volatility could lead to a cascade of liquidations, and a loss of funds for the lender. * Smart Contract Risk: The underlying code of the lending protocol could contain bugs or vulnerabilities that hackers could exploit, leading to a loss of funds. This is a common risk throughout DeFi protocols and with crypto in general. Smart contract risk applies for all the methods we detail below too, so we won’t repeat this risk for brevity sake. The most reputable DeFi protocols mitigate this risk by having robust testing, third-party smart contract audits, and even bug bounty programs to address vulnerabilities found after release. ### 2. Providing Liquidity to Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) How it works: You deposit a pair of assets into a liquidity pool on a decentralized exchange like Uniswap or Curve. A decentralized exchange enables trading to happen peer-to-peer rather than through a centralized intermediary like Coinbase. The liquidity you provide facilitates trading between those assets, and you earn a share of the trading fees on that asset pair. Take an example where you deposit the following asset pair into a liquidity pool: WBTC and cbBTC. Any time someone trades cbBTC for WBTC or WBTC for cbBTC, you earn a share of the trading fees. Typical Yields: Just like decentralized lending, liquidity pool yields are dynamic and will depend on the asset pairs you provide liquidity for on the platform. In the example above (WBTC/cbBTC), yields might fluctuate between 0.5% \- 2% APY. Pairing WBTC or ETH with a stablecoin like USDC can offer significantly higher yields (10-25% APY), though this introduces higher "impermanent loss" risk (see more on that below). Risks: * Impermanent Loss: This is a unique risk when providing liquidity to a DEX. If the price of your two deposited assets diverges significantly after you deposit them, you might withdraw less total value than if you had simply held the assets separately. The loss is impermanent because it goes away if the asset prices return to their original price ratio before you withdraw your funds. Providing liquidity for two assets pegged to the same cryptocurrency (ex: WBTC/cbBTC) should see little to no price divergence. An asset pair like WBTC/USDC has a much higher chance of price divergence since Bitcoin’s price is highly volatile relative to dollars. If you want to go deeper on how impermanent loss works, refer to this article from Binance, a leading crypto exchange. * Rug Pulls: Newer or unaudited DEXs carry the risk of developers abandoning the project and absconding with user funds. We recommend you only consider established DEXs like Uniswap. ### 3. Providing Collateral for Stablecoin Yield Farming How it works: You can lock up your wrapped bitcoin as collateral in protocols like MakerDAO to mint decentralized stablecoins (e.g., DAI). These dollar-pegged stablecoins can then be deployed in other DeFi strategies to generate yield. Typical Yields: In this case, the yield isn't directly on your bitcoin. Instead, it's generated from the stablecoins minted using bitcoin as collateral. Yields vary but tend to be higher than wrapped bitcoin since stablecoins can be used in a wider variety of use cases. Yields for a reputable decentralized stablecoin like DAI can be anywhere from 3-5% APY depending on demand or the yield strategy you implement. Risks: * Liquidation Risk: If the value of your bitcoin collateral falls below a certain threshold, your collateral can be liquidated to unwind the stablecoin position. * Stablecoin De-peg Risk: While stablecoins are designed to maintain a $1 peg, unexpected events could cause a stablecoin to temporarily lose its peg. This would negatively impact the value of your assets and earned income. ### 4. Staking Via A Bitcoin Layer 2 Protocol How it works: You deposit your bitcoin into a Layer 2 (L2) protocol like Babylon. Babylon allows people to build proof-of-stake applications on the Bitcoin network, just like in the Ethereum and Solana ecosystems. Validators use your bitcoin as collateral to confirm transactions for these applications, earning fees that are then passed to you as interest. Typical Yields: Bitcoin staking is relatively new and still being developed. Yields currently hover between 1-1.8% APY depending on the service you decide to stake with (e.g. Kraken or Lombard Finance). Risks - Slashing Risk: Depending on the specific implementation of the L2 and the chains it secures, there might be a "slashing" mechanism where a portion of your staked bitcoin could be forfeited if the validator you're delegating to acts maliciously or experiences significant downtime. - Liquidity Risk: Your staked bitcoin may be locked for a certain period, potentially limiting your ability to access it immediately if market conditions change or you need to liquidate your holdings. ## Wrapping Up The DeFi ecosystem offers effective solutions to address Bitcoin's Pet Rock problem. By engaging with DeFi, you can transform Bitcoin from a mere appreciating asset into one that generates income too. However, navigating these protocols is challenging and not suitable for all investors. For those willing to navigate DeFi's complexities, unlocking Bitcoin's productive potential is a powerful way to boost returns. While risks are inherent, a strong understanding of blockchain protocols, smart contracts, and their associated risks empowers you to transform that Pet Rock into a true income engine. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## Crypto’s Future Frontier: Your Retirement Plan URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/retirement-plans/ Published: 2025-07-25 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Major Policy Shifts: In May 2025, the U.S. Department of Labor rescinded its 2022 guidance that discouraged retirement plan sponsors from offering crypto to their plan participants. Additionally, President Trump has announced support for giving retirement plans access to alternative investments like digital assets. - Crypto’s Investment Appeal: Digital assets like Bitcoin and Ether offer diversification, inflation hedging, and high-growth potential. These benefits are further amplified when the assets are held within tax-free retirement accounts. - Trillions in Potential Inflows: U.S. employer-sponsored retirement plans hold over $12 trillion in assets. Even a small allocation to crypto could result in hundreds of billions, if not trillions, of dollars in new capital inflows. - Key Challenges Remain: In order to roll out a crypto offering to retirement plan participants, plan sponsors would need to address a variety of hurdles including sufficient investor education. ## Intro In 2022, the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) issued guidance discouraging retirement plan sponsors, like Vanguard, from offering digital assets to their customers. Volatility, valuation challenges, custody risks, and the potential for fraud were all cited as concerns. This cautious stance created a significant regulatory headwind, limiting crypto exposure via retirement plans to self-directed IRA accounts. This year however, there have been two major developments which could pull employer-sponsored retirement plans off the sidelines and into the crypto markets: - In May 2025, the DOL rescinded their 2022 guidance - Last week, President Trump stated he'd sign an executive order for regulatory agencies to investigate how to make alternative investments, such as digital assets, broadly available to retirement plans In this research brief, we look into what it might mean for crypto markets if digital assets were made available to employer-sponsored direct contribution retirement plans. ## Why Crypto Belongs in Retirement Portfolios Before jumping into the market implications, it is worth considering two key questions: - Which digital assets would most likely be offered? - Why would people allocate retirement contributions to digital assets? In our opinion, Bitcoin would be available first to plan participants, followed by Ethereum’s native token Ether (ETH). These are the two largest cryptocurrencies, and this sequence aligns with how corporations and governments have been adding digital assets to their balance sheets. Why should someone consider allocating retirement contributions to crypto? We see several reasons: 1. Diversification Benefits: Crypto has a low correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds. Compared to traditional assets, crypto is particularly sensitive to changes in global liquidity. Bitwise’s Crypto Market Review (Q1 2025\) report shows how including both Bitcoin and Ether in a traditional 60/40 portfolio can significantly boost returns. - Inflation & Monetary Policy Hedge (The "Digital Gold" Narrative): Ballooning government debt and the pace of money printing are generally considered significant systemic risks. Digital assets like Bitcoin, with its fixed supply of 21 million units, are increasingly being viewed as a potential long-term hedge against poor monetary policy. - Tax Free Growth With Asymmetric Upside: At $3.9 trillion, crypto is still a small asset class relative to global stocks ($124 trillion) and bonds ($140.7 trillion). We are seeing major advances in crypto adoption through U.S. legislation like the GENIUS Act, as well as the addition of crypto to corporate and government balance sheets. Even if crypto becomes just one tenth the size of stocks or bonds, retirement plan participants could be looking at 3-4X return that would be completely tax free. ## Retirement Plans Offer Trillion Dollar Inflows The most significant implication of including crypto in employer-sponsored retirement plans would be the sheer scale of capital inflows. This includes both the enormous pool of existing retirement savings as well as new contributions. Consider these figures: - U.S. employer-sponsored direct contribution retirement plans, for example 401(k)s and 403(b)s, hold an estimated $12.2 trillion in assets as of Q1 2025. The U.S. Government Accountability Office estimates that crypto currently represents less than 1% of those holdings. - Even a modest reallocation from these retirement accounts, into crypto, could translate into significant inflows: These numbers show the transformative potential, but they don’t paint the whole picture. We haven’t considered the dollar inflows from ongoing contributions. An estimated $500 billion is contributed by employees and employers into 401(k)s each year alone. Using the same 1-10% allocation range, that could mean $5-50 billion in annual inflows into crypto. When you add in crypto supply considerations, things get increasingly bullish. We can expect that the crypto purchased through these inflows will be held for the long-term since people don’t frequently adjust their retirement contribution allocations. Bitcoin has a hard cap of 21 million units and ETH’s issuance is capped at 1.51% annually. As contributions continue, the demand would likely outpace supply. The effect could be a massive spike in Bitcoin and ETH valuations. ## Plan Sponsors Must Overcome Several Headwinds Before Crypto Is Rolled Out To Retirement Plans While the upside for retirement plan participants is considerable, there are still several risks and headwinds which need to be addressed before we start seeing crypto rolled out to employer-sponsored retirement plans: - Volatility Remains: Cryptocurrencies are, by nature, highly volatile. Price swings can be dramatic and swift. This requires a long-term investment horizon and a clear understanding that short-term fluctuations are part of the asset class. - Lack of Extensive Long-Term Data: Compared to centuries of data for stocks and bonds, the history of crypto as an asset class is relatively short. This means less historical data is available for modeling and forecasting long-term performance. - Evolving Regulatory Landscape: Despite the positive signals from Washington, the broader regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is still being developed. Future regulations could impact market dynamics, valuations, and usability. - Custody and Security: The security of digital assets is critical. Plan sponsors must ensure that any crypto offering utilizes robust, institutional-grade custody solutions to protect against theft, hacking, and other security risks. - Fiduciary Duty is Unchanged: Plan sponsors remain bound by their fiduciary duty to act prudently and solely in the best interests of their participants. This requires rigorous due diligence on any crypto-related investment, understanding the underlying technology, assessing fees, and ensuring appropriate risk disclosure. - Participant Understanding is Key: It is important that plan participants are provided with clear, comprehensive education on the risks and rewards of investing in digital assets. This knowledge will be critical to enabling plan participants to make informed decisions that align with their individual risk tolerance and retirement goals. ## Wrap Up The DOL's recent moves, and President Trump’s positive announcement, are the first of many stepping stones that would allow Americans to unlock significant growth within their employer-sponsored retirement plans. This potential is underscored by the immense scale of the retirement plan market. Even small allocations could translate into hundreds of billions, or even a trillion dollars, in new crypto inflows over time. Crypto exposure through employer-sponsored retirement plans would be transformational for the digital asset industry. Yes, there are still headwinds which need to be addressed before it can become a reality. We strongly believe however that plan sponsors will eventually overcome these challenges, and that investors who decide to get in front of this next wave of demand will be rewarded. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## Bitcoin Academy: Part 6 URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/academy/bitcoin/part-6/ Published: 2025-07-20 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## The Road Ahead: Opportunities And Threats As we conclude our Bitcoin Academy series, it’s worth stepping back and looking to the horizon for this new digital nation. Below we sketch the main openings for growth and the hurdles that could slow progress. ### Opportunities - Increased scaling and throughput. If scaling solutions like Bitcoin’s Lightning Network keep improving, people will be able to send money across borders almost instantly and for just a few cents. That speed and low cost could help the unbanked and chip away at today’s pricey remittance services. - Exchange-traded funds will bring price stability. The arrival of exchange‑traded funds lets large pension plans and ordinary retirement accounts buy bitcoin as easily as they buy any stock. Onboarding these deeper pools of steady capital should help smooth out Bitcoin’s historically wild price swings. - A digital hedge against inflation. The fixed 21 million unit supply gives Bitcoin a built‑in appeal as an inflation hedge. As Bitcoin’s adoption and influence grows, savers in economies with poorly managed currencies may move into Bitcoin knowing no one can create more of it at will. - Upcoming generations may boost adoption. Younger, digital‑first generations are coming of age with smartphones in hand. As their spending and investing power rises, everyday Bitcoin saving and spending could rise with them. ### Threats And Challenges - Continued adoption is not guaranteed. If second‑layer tools such as the Lightning Network fail to scale quickly—or if miners one day earn too little to keep the chain secure—users could migrate to faster or cheaper networks. - Tough regulation is a wild card. Outright bans or tight controls in big economies are not off the table. While those hurdles might not kill Bitcoin, they could fracture its markets and slow momentum. - Technological shifts pose risks. A breakthrough in quantum computing could weaken today’s standard encryption. Developers need to stay aware of these new technologies and ensure Bitcoin’s security defenses are upgraded in time. - Bitcoin’s heavy energy use continues to draw criticism. Expanding renewable power and squeezing more efficiency from mining operations will be essential to ease public concern, political pressure, and tension with other power-heavy consumers like AI data center operators. ## What’s Next? Bitcoin’s Resilience Makes Us Optimistic About Its Future With the above points in mind, you may wonder where Triple Point Strategy stands on Bitcoin. The answer is that we’re optimistic. We ultimately believe in Bitcoin because of its resilient fundamentals. Throughout this series, we’ve noted that Bitcoin was designed with a clear vision: to be a decentralized, secure form of money, and it has remained true to that principle through adversity. Its protocol rules enforce scarcity and security in a way no other asset does, giving it a unique place in a world of proliferating fiat money and fragile financial systems. Bitcoin’s resilience to technological, economic, and political shocks has strengthened our confidence that it can weather future storms. Each major threat we discussed, whether a hack, a ban, or a contentious fork, ultimately ended with Bitcoin bouncing back, often even stronger. This durability is no accident; it stems from Bitcoin’s decentralized architecture and the passionate global community that sustains it. We also see that Bitcoin’s narrative has broadened, not narrowed, over time. It started as niche electronic cash for the internet, then became seen as digital gold, and now it’s being considered for roles in remittances, national reserves, and fintech innovation. Such adaptability while maintaining core integrity is rare. It suggests that Bitcoin can continue finding relevance in different economic climates and use cases. At Triple Point Strategy, our mission is to bring clarity to complexity, and Bitcoin, though technically intricate, offers a straightforward value proposition: money that no central authority controls and anyone can use. In a world where trust in institutions rises and falls, Bitcoin provides an alternative rooted in mathematics and consensus. We believe this proposition will only grow more compelling over time. Bitcoin represents a new form of sovereignty based on technology and collective agreement, and its evolution is likely to be one of the defining narratives in finance for decades, and perhaps centuries, to come. --- ## Bitcoin Academy: Part 5 URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/academy/bitcoin/part-5/ Published: 2025-07-19 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Recap In Part 1, we explored the innovations and events that led to Bitcoin’s invention. We saw how centuries of monetary evolution, the rise of the internet, and breakthroughs in cryptography set the stage for Satoshi Nakamoto’s creation–all catalyzed by the 2008 financial crisis. This context explained why Bitcoin was invented: to be “a system where rules are enforced by code, not institutions,” addressing issues like centralized control of money and the lack of trustless online payments. In Parts 2, 3, and 4, we looked under the hood at how Bitcoin works. We broke Bitcoin into three layers (the network, the protocol, and the asset) to understand how it operates as a trustless, decentralized system. We saw that a global network of nodes and miners keeps the ledger consistent, the protocol’s rules (like proof-of-work mining and a 21 million supply cap) act as Bitcoin’s unchangeable “constitution,” and the bitcoin asset itself functions as a new form of sound money. At this point, we understood the technical foundations that make Bitcoin possible. In Part 5, we step back from the technical details to examine Bitcoin’s living history and its future prospects. To make sense of Bitcoin’s journey, we’ll use a metaphor: Bitcoin as a developing nation. Despite being a decentralized software network, Bitcoin has evolved much like a young nation finding its footing. We’ll examine four key pillars of this metaphor: - Domestic Governance - National Defense - Foreign Policy - Economic Development We’ll highlight major events, ranging from the “Blocksize Wars” to Bitcoin crossing $100K. Finally, we’ll see how technical concepts translate into real-world impacts and how Bitcoin matured from a fledgling experiment into a robust player on the world stage. Let’s dive in. ## Domestic Governance: Bitcoin’s Internal Rule of Law Every nation needs a system of governance–a way to make decisions and enforce rules. Bitcoin’s “domestic governance” is unlike any traditional nation’s; there’s no president or parliament, only a community of users, miners, and developers spread across the globe. In Bitcoin, the rules were initially set in code by its creator, Satoshi, and then left to the community when Satoshi disappeared in 2010. Changes to Bitcoin’s rules require overwhelming consensus. In fact, altering Bitcoin is so difficult that it’s often said the protocol has a constitution etched in code. This design protects Bitcoin from whim or corruption; no single group can easily push through changes. But it also means that internal governance can be slow and contentious. One dramatic test of Bitcoin’s governance was the Blocksize Wars. ### The Blocksize Wars As Bitcoin’s usage increased, debates over how to scale the network intensified. The central issue was the block-size limit, which controls how many transactions each block can carry. One camp (“Big Blockers”) argued for larger blocks to fit more transactions, aiming to lower fees and improve speed for a better user experience. The other camp (“Small Blockers”) insisted on keeping blocks small to ensure anyone could run a node and keep the system decentralized. This ideological rift led to heated arguments in forums and conferences, competing proposals, and even threats of splitting the network. It was a kind of constitutional crisis for Bitcoin. Bitcoiners asked themselves: How would we decide on a major policy change without a central authority? The showdown culminated in 2017. A portion of the community chose to “fork” away, creating a new version of the protocol with bigger blocks (this fork became known as Bitcoin Cash). Meanwhile, on Bitcoin’s main chain, a more conservative scaling upgrade called Segregated Witness (SegWit) was activated, which gained consensus and improved capacity without increasing block size. In effect, Bitcoin’s community split over governance: those unhappy with the status quo left to pursue their vision with Bitcoin Cash, while the majority agreed on the gradual solution of SegWit. It was a civil war in code, and SegWit ultimately emerged as the winner. Bitcoin did not increase its block size, and Bitcoin Cash became largely irrelevant, suffering from dismal liquidity, low developer activity, and minimal adoption. The episode proved that Bitcoin’s core rules can’t be changed easily. Any change needs near‑unanimous agreement; otherwise, dissenters will simply fork off. This resilience against change was by design, to protect the system from central control, but it came at the cost of bitter division and delayed adoption. Yet, out of this conflict came a silver lining: an affirmation of Bitcoin’s values. The community by and large chose decentralization and security over quick expansion, and it doubled down on scaling via innovation (like the Lightning Network) rather than altering the base layer. Governance by consensus prevailed, messy as it was. ### The Taproot Upgrade (2021): A Quiet, Consensus‑Driven Fork Four years later, Bitcoin underwent another major upgrade, Taproot, activated in November 2021. Politically, it was the opposite of the Blocksize Wars: - Broad alignment on objectives. Taproot did not revisit Bitcoin’s ideological fault lines (decentralization vs. throughput). Instead, it offered “no‑losers” improvements: better privacy and lower transaction overhead without any trade‑off that threatened node accessibility or monetary policy. - Incremental, well‑tested code. Development spanned years of peer review and testnet trials. Because the change was additive rather than disruptive, node operators could adopt it at their own pace without breaking old wallets or forcing a hard choice. - Transparent activation rules. The community agreed on a clear signaling method requiring \~90% of miner computing power (hash rate) to show support over a fixed period. The explicit, objective threshold meant everyone knew the rules in advance and accepted the outcome. - Optional opt‑in. Nodes that never upgraded remained fully compatible; they simply could not spend Taproot‑style outputs. By making the feature purely additive, dissenters were not pushed toward a contentious split. The result: miners hit the threshold early, activation was automatic, and hardly anyone noticed a “fork day.” Where the Blocksize Wars resembled a national schism, Taproot felt like passing a bipartisan amendment. ### Bringing It All Together Bitcoin’s internal governance has kept it decentralized and stable. Even through fierce debates like the Blocksize Wars, no single group could force changes on everyone else–changes only happen through widespread consensus or not at all. Taproot showed that, given clear benefits and transparent procedures, the same decentralized system can still evolve smoothly. The Bitcoin community learned two valuable governance lessons: - Guard the constitution, but allow additive innovation. Core principles (such as 21 million supply and full node sovereignty) will likely stay nearly untouchable; non‑core improvements succeed when they are strictly opt‑in and demonstrably low‑risk. - Publish the rules of decision‑making before the vote. The Taproot upgrade illustrated how setting an objective threshold and timeline in advance builds trust, avoids ambiguity, and minimizes post‑decision resentment. Slow, open‑source consensus may feel cumbersome, yet it creates a durable “rule of law” atmosphere in which nodes voluntarily comply and innovators still find room to build. That combination (constitutional rigidity plus permissionless, opt‑in progress) is the governance balance Bitcoin has learned to strike. Of course, setting up internal rules is only half the story for a budding nation. The next challenge was defending Bitcoin’s network and community against threats–from hackers to hostile powers. Like any nation, Bitcoin had to survive attacks to prove its resilience. ## National Defense: Resilience in the Face of Crises If Bitcoin is a digital nation, its “national defense” is the security of its network and the protection of its users’ assets. Bitcoin doesn’t have an army, but it has miners and nodes working to secure the blockchain. The proof-of-work mechanism is often likened to a fortress: attackers would need extraordinary resources (51% of the network’s hashing power) to rewrite or fake transactions, making attacks economically and technically infeasible in practice. However, in Bitcoin’s early years, many wondered: could this really withstand real-world assaults? Over the past decade, Bitcoin has faced numerous crises that tested its defenses. Each time, it emerged stronger. One of the earliest major blows came from within the ecosystem rather than the protocol itself: the infamous Mt. Gox exchange hack. ### Mt. Gox Hack Mt. Gox was the largest Bitcoin exchange at the time–handling roughly 70% of all Bitcoin trades–until it was revealed that hundreds of thousands of bitcoin had been stolen from it. In early 2014, Mt. Gox collapsed into bankruptcy, taking down its users’ funds and sending shockwaves through the young Bitcoin economy. The price of bitcoin, which had soared to around $1,000 in late 2013, plummeted by over 80% in the aftermath. For many, this was the first time Bitcoin “died” in the headlines. Was the network hacked? No. The problem wasn’t with Bitcoin itself but with Mt. Gox, a major exchange that mishandled user funds and had weak security practices. The Mt. Gox incident was a harsh lesson in security: it taught the community the importance of safeguarding private keys and led to the mantra “Not your keys, not your coins.” In terms of our metaphor, this hack was a coordinated act of economic espionage. It tested national morale severely. However, Bitcoin’s defense lay in its decentralization: despite the collapse of a huge intermediary, the Bitcoin network itself kept running. Blocks were mined on schedule; no coin was counterfeited or “lost” on the blockchain. Bitcoin survived the crisis and continued to attract new exchanges and users, proving its antifragility. As painful as it was, the ecosystem emerged with stronger exchanges, better security standards, and a wary eye toward single points of failure. The “Bitcoin nation” learned that it could endure a disaster and rebuild. External attacks on the network have come as well, sometimes from powerful institutions. A striking example was China’s ban on Bitcoin mining in 2021. ### China’s Bitcoin Mining Ban In 2021, China conducted a state-driven attack on a huge chunk of Bitcoin’s hash power. For years, China had been home to a majority of Bitcoin mining operations. Suddenly, in mid-2021, the Chinese government outlawed mining, forcing miners to shut down or flee overseas. The impact was immediate: within weeks, Bitcoin’s total network hash rate (computing power) dropped by roughly 50%, the largest decline in history. It was as if half of Bitcoin’s defensive army vanished overnight–a pivotal test of the network’s resilience. And yet, Bitcoin handled it exactly as designed: the protocol didn’t panic, it adjusted. Every two weeks, the network automatically recalibrates its mining difficulty based on the current hash power. So, after China’s ban, Bitcoin made mining easier, ensuring that remaining miners could continue finding blocks at roughly the same 10-minute intervals. Meanwhile, displaced miners started a “great mining migration,” relocating to countries like the United States, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Within a few months, the hash rate not only recovered but hit new all-time highs as mining became more geographically distributed than ever. By 2022, the U.S. had become the largest hub for Bitcoin mining, filling the gap left by China. The ban, intended to weaken Bitcoin, arguably ended up strengthening it by dispersing its security base across more jurisdictions. This episode demonstrated Bitcoin’s national defense in action: a blend of game theory and adaptive technology. The economic incentives of mining pulled miners back online, and the protocol’s rules kept the system secure even under distress. It was as if a developing nation faced sanctions from a superpower and, after a brief hardship, found a way to become more self-reliant and resilient than before. Beyond these headline events, Bitcoin’s network has thwarted countless smaller attacks and bugs. There have been attempts at DDoS attacks (flooding the network with spam transactions), speculative worries about one miner gaining 51% control, and even a couple of software bugs that could have been catastrophic had they not been quickly fixed by developers. Each time, the open-source community of developers and node operators acted as a volunteer corps of “engineers” strengthening the fortifications. The result, after 16 years, is that Bitcoin has never been successfully hacked at the protocol level. This track record is an enormous source of confidence. It’s why we now see institutions comfortable investing billions into Bitcoin–because its security has been battle-tested. ### Bringing It All Together Through crisis after crisis, Bitcoin has proven its robustness. Whether it was an exchange implosion like Mt. Gox or a nation-state crackdown on mining, the Bitcoin network survived intact and came back stronger. Its decentralized design–from mining to node governance–is a powerful defense mechanism. For users, the lesson is that Bitcoin is resilient but not infallible: individual companies or players may fail, but the network as a whole is engineered to withstand attacks and adapt. This resilience underpins trust in Bitcoin as a lasting system. Having survived internal strife and external attacks, Bitcoin’s “nation” next had to navigate its relationship with the outside world. How would it interact with traditional nations, laws, and global markets? This brings us to Bitcoin’s foreign policy. ## Foreign Policy: Bitcoin’s Relationship with the World No nation exists in isolation. Bitcoin’s “foreign policy” refers to how it engages with governments, regulators, financial institutions, and global public opinion. In its early years, Bitcoin was like a renegade micro-nation unrecognized by others–used by a niche group of citizens, sometimes for activities that attracted negative attention. Over time, as Bitcoin grew, so did the world’s interest in it. This has been a journey from marginalization to gradual acceptance, marked by legal battles, regulatory milestones, and even adoption by nation-states. ### Eastern Opposition, Western Détente In the beginning, many authorities simply didn’t know what to make of Bitcoin. Some ignored it, while others associated it with crime. Several high-profile events gave it a Wild West image, most notably the Silk Road marketplace (an online black market in the early 2010s where Bitcoin was used for illicit purchases) and other incidents on the dark web. When the U.S. government shut down Silk Road in 2013 and seized a large stash of bitcoin, it sent a message that law enforcement was watching crypto. Yet, tellingly, even after Silk Road was gone, Bitcoin was still there. This was a new situation for governments: normally, shutting down a criminal enterprise would also eliminate its “currency,” but they couldn’t shut down Bitcoin itself. That resiliency started to shift perceptions. By the mid-2010s, regulators worldwide moved from outright hostility or indifference to trying to establish rules for cryptocurrencies. A watershed moment in Bitcoin’s global standing came in 2017. In September of that year, China dramatically banned domestic Bitcoin exchanges and initial coin offerings (ICOs). At the same time, Western regulators began to step in. They did not seek to ban Bitcoin; instead, they worked to integrate it into existing legal frameworks, for example, by classifying it as property for tax purposes and requiring exchanges to follow anti-money-laundering rules. The late 2010s established a new kind of detente: most major economies didn’t outlaw Bitcoin, but they didn’t fully accept it either. Bitcoin was now on the agenda in legislative halls and regulatory agencies. The “Bitcoin nation” had gained a voice in international dialogue, albeit one that was often controversial. Perhaps the most remarkable development in Bitcoin’s foreign relations was nation-state adoption. ### El Salvador Adoption as Legal Tender In 2021, El Salvador became the first country in the world to recognize Bitcoin as legal tender. This tiny Central American nation essentially made Bitcoin an official currency alongside the US dollar. The news shocked and fascinated the world. For Bitcoin’s advocates, it was a triumphant moment: the first diplomatic recognition of Bitcoin by a sovereign nation, akin to an upstart country gaining its first ally. El Salvador’s government touted Bitcoin as a way to empower citizens without bank access and reduce fees on remittances (a huge portion of El Salvador’s GDP comes from money sent home by Salvadorans abroad). But the move also drew criticism and warnings. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank frowned on it, and some Salvadorans protested the volatility and uncertainty this new foreign currency brought. Nonetheless, El Salvador’s bold experiment signaled that Bitcoin’s influence had grown beyond tech circles; it was now part of geopolitical conversations. While El Salvador remains unique in full legal tender status, the mere fact that a national government would hold bitcoin in its treasury and mandate its acceptance marked a new chapter in Bitcoin’s foreign policy: Bitcoin as an ally, not an enemy, of nations. Meanwhile, in countries with established financial systems, Bitcoin’s relationship with regulators has continued to mature, albeit slowly and contentiously. A prime example is the battle over a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States. ### Grayscale Investments, LLC v. SEC For years, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) blocked proposals to create a regulated spot Bitcoin ETF (which would let mainstream investors gain Bitcoin exposure through the stock market). Grayscale’s lawsuit against the SEC became a pivotal showdown. Grayscale, which operated the largest Bitcoin trust, sued the SEC in 2022 for rejecting its application to convert its trust into an ETF. In August 2023, a U.S. appeals court delivered a landmark ruling: it found the SEC’s rejection was “arbitrary” and unjustified, since the SEC had already approved Bitcoin futures-based ETFs but not a spot ETF. This court victory forced the SEC to reconsider and was celebrated as a major win for the crypto industry’s push into traditional finance. By late 2023, the SEC signaled it would not appeal the decision, paving the way for the first U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF to eventually be approved. In diplomatic terms, this was like Bitcoin winning recognition from a powerful international body. An ETF means wider access and legitimacy, bringing Bitcoin further into the fold of the global financial system. Similarly, large institutions (from Fidelity to BlackRock) began lining up to launch Bitcoin investment products, another sign that engagement has replaced denial. Today, even governments are much more openly discussing how to accommodate Bitcoin. ### Bringing It All Together Bitcoin’s foreign policy can sometimes feel like one step forward, one step back: a major bank announces a Bitcoin service, but then a regulator issues a stern warning or new restriction. Through it all, Bitcoin’s strategy has been one of persistence. It doesn’t have a President or CEO to testify or negotiate; instead, its “ambassadors” are its community and market forces. As more people and businesses adopt Bitcoin, the more pressure builds on policymakers to incorporate it rather than prohibit it. In fact, many observers note that Bitcoin’s spread has made a blanket ban in liberal democracies increasingly unlikely–too many constituents now own it. This gradual normalization is akin to a once-isolated nation gaining trading partners and diplomatic ties because its citizens and products became desirable abroad. Bitcoin is increasingly being treated not as an enemy of the state, but as a new player that states and institutions must learn to work with (or even leverage). The “Bitcoin nation” is carving out its place in the global order, one relationship at a time. Finally, no nation is complete without an economy. How has Bitcoin built out its economic might? We’ll look at Bitcoin’s economic development: the booms, busts, and growth of its financial ecosystem. ## Economic Development: From Quirky Experiment to Thriving Economy The economic development of Bitcoin is perhaps the most striking storyline. We’re talking about value: the market capitalization of Bitcoin, the industries and jobs created around it, and the financial infrastructure built on top. It’s hard to overstate how far Bitcoin’s economy has come since its inception. What began as a handful of enthusiasts trading bitcoin for pennies has become a global market where billions of dollars change hands daily. Bitcoin’s price (an easy if imperfect measure of economic growth) went from nearly zero in 2009 to breaching five and even six figures. In fact, in late 2024, Bitcoin’s price crossed the $100,000 mark for the first time in history, pushing its total market value above $2 trillion. This milestone, once thought crazy, underlined how a decentralized digital economy had established itself as a force to be reckoned with. Let’s recap this economic journey and what it means functionally and culturally. ### Early economy (2009–2013) In Bitcoin’s first years, its “GDP” was tiny and its economy rudimentary. There were no reliable exchanges at first. People swapped bitcoin on forums or via quirky marketplaces. The first exchange rates valued Bitcoin at fractions of a penny. The community was small, composed mostly of programmers and libertarians who saw Bitcoin as either an experiment or a haven from the traditional financial system. By 2013, Bitcoin had its first big bubble–surging over $1,000–which, despite the subsequent crash, put this new economy on the global map. People started to realize something of value was being created here. ### Growth and industry formation (2014–2017) After the bear market of 2014-2015, Bitcoin’s economy entered a more mature growth stage. New exchanges emerged (Coinbase, Bitstamp, and Kraken) with better security and venture capital backing. Industry segments formed: mining became a big business with specialized hardware manufacturers and mining farm operators; “wallet” companies were founded to provide easier ways for users to hold bitcoin; and a growing investor class started treating Bitcoin as “digital gold,” a store of value investment. By 2017, Bitcoin’s economic clout was far greater than a few years prior. That year saw an unprecedented influx of retail investors worldwide, driving the price from under $1,000 in January to nearly $20,000 by December. At the height of that bubble, the world started hearing about Bitcoin on nightly news and social media. Importantly, even when the bubble popped in early 2018 and the price fell \~80% again, the floor was much higher than in 2014. More capital stayed in the system, and crucially, infrastructure kept improving. ### Mainstream integration (2018–2021) The next phase saw Bitcoin stepping onto the big stage. By now, it had a place in the portfolios of not just cypherpunks, but also hedge funds and some forward-thinking institutions. A few landmark events drove this integration. In 2020, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic economic turmoil, several public companies decided to allocate some of their cash reserves to Bitcoin–MicroStrategy famously bought hundreds of millions in bitcoin as a treasury reserve, and Tesla followed by purchasing $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in early 2021. These moves were validation that Bitcoin was becoming a legitimate asset class. Around the same time, PayPal and other payment companies announced support for buying and spending crypto, vastly expanding access. The culmination was another explosive bull market in 2021: Bitcoin’s price hit a new peak of \~$69,000 in November 2021, and the market cap of Bitcoin alone neared $1.3 trillion. During this period, the first Bitcoin futures ETF launched in the U.S. (allowing indirect investment via traditional markets), and large banks began offering crypto custody services for clients. Culturally, Bitcoin was now regularly compared to gold as an inflation hedge; it had entered discussions about macroeconomic strategy in an era of heavy money printing by central banks. In our nation metaphor, Bitcoin’s economy was now acknowledged by “global financial institutions” –analogous to an emerging market being noticed by the IMF or being added to world economic indices. ### Bitcoin breaks $100K and beyond (2022–2025) Breaking six figures is symbolic. It reflects roughly a decade and a half of compounding growth and adoption. At $100K, the total economic size of Bitcoin was about $2 trillion, rivaling the GDP of medium-sized countries or the market cap of the largest companies on earth. Such a valuation wasn’t driven purely by retail speculation; it was underpinned by institutional investment, global usage, and the narrative of digital gold solidifying as inflation globally remained a concern. By this time, the Bitcoin economy included a wide web of services: millions of merchants accepting bitcoin via Lightning Network, Bitcoin ATMs in cities worldwide, a derivatives market for bitcoin futures/options, and even Bitcoin-backed loans and financial products. Bitcoin finally became financially integrated. You could hold it in your retirement account, use it to send money abroad instantly, or borrow against it. ## Wrap Up In 2025, the Bitcoin “developing nation” is far more developed now: it has a currency recognized and held by millions, a global trade network, and even a budding sense of nation-state identity. Bitcoin’s economic development has been extraordinary–from virtually zero value to a multitrillion-dollar asset class in 15 years. This growth was fueled by a series of boom-and-bust cycles that each expanded Bitcoin’s infrastructure and adoption. The key point is that Bitcoin is much more than an idea now. It’s a robust, functioning economy. Understanding Bitcoin means appreciating that it has an economy that behaves in some ways like a nation’s economy, with its own trends, industries, and innovations driving it forward. Part 6 is the last entry in the Bitcoin Academy series. In it, we’ll share our firm’s perspective on Bitcoin and our view on the technology’s staying power. --- ## Bitcoin Academy: Part 4 URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/academy/bitcoin/part-4/ Published: 2025-07-18 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team With the network explained in Part 2, and the protocol rules covered in Part 3, we now turn to the thing the system actually moves: bitcoin the asset. ## Bitcoin as an Asset: The “Digital Gold” Cryptocurrency What makes Bitcoin “money” rather than just a ledger of IOUs? It’s the fact that bitcoin themselves are valuable units that can be exchanged. In other words, bitcoin is also a currency. But unlike fiat money (dollars, euros, etc.) which are issued by central banks, Bitcoin’s currency has a strict, algorithmically enforced monetary policy. This was a deliberate design choice by Satoshi, inspired by the flaws he saw in traditional money systems (like inflation and money printing—problems highlighted in Part 1). ### Bitcoin has a supply limit and programmatic issuance schedule Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins, forever. As designed, there will never be 22 million bitcoin, or even 21,000,001. This cap is built into the code. New bitcoin enters circulation through the mining process we described. Each new block creates a certain number of fresh bitcoin as the miner’s reward. But unlike gold mining (which can continue indefinitely) or fiat money printing (which can accelerate or decelerate at policymakers’ whim), Bitcoin’s issuance rate follows a fixed, diminishing schedule. The block reward started at 50 bitcoin per block in 2009, but it halves roughly every four years in an event aptly called the “halving.” It will keep halving every 210,000 blocks (\~4 years) until around the year 2140, when it reaches essentially zero new bitcoin. At that point, the 21 millionth (actually slightly less due to rounding) bitcoin will have been mined, and no more will ever be created. All of this is known in advance. It’s as if the Federal Reserve announced, in 2009, a precise schedule of exactly how many dollars would be printed every year for the next century, and then locked it in code so no one could change it. This predictable, disinflationary supply is a radical departure from modern fiat monetary policy. In the traditional system, central banks like the Fed adjust the money supply based on economic conditions, often increasing it (which can lead to inflation and devaluation of existing money). Users of a currency have to trust that the central bank won’t debase their savings by printing too much—a trust that history shows is frequently betrayed. Bitcoin flips this script: no one can arbitrarily increase the supply of bitcoin. The rules of how Bitcoin’s money works are transparent and virtually unchangeable—encoded in the software that everyone is running. “The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust,” Satoshi wrote, explaining Bitcoin’s rationale for a fixed supply. By removing the ability of any authority to print money, Bitcoin aims to be inflation-resistant. ### Bitcoin has become “digital gold” Bitcoin is often called “digital gold” because of this scarcity. Like gold, it’s limited in quantity and costly to produce (mining requires work), in contrast to paper money which can be created with the press of a button. In fact, Satoshi explicitly drew inspiration from gold’s finite supply and the way gold mining becomes harder as easy deposits run out. Bitcoin’s code makes the mining puzzles automatically adjust in difficulty such that on average one block is found every 10 minutes, regardless of how many miners there are. So if more miners (or faster hardware) join and blocks come faster, the protocol raises the difficulty to slow it back to \~10 minutes. This ensures the issuance schedule stays on track—a steadily decreasing flow of new coins. In practical terms, Bitcoin started with relatively high “inflation” (50 bitcoin every 10 minutes was a lot when few were in circulation), but over time its inflation rate has dropped below 2% and will eventually approach 0%. The design creates digital scarcity: everyone knows there won’t be more than 21 million bitcoin, so each bitcoin (or each fraction of a bitcoin) is a unique piece of a fixed pie. Of course, this approach has trade-offs. Bitcoin’s price can be volatile since supply is inelastic and fixed. Any change in demand leads to significant price swings. Also, one might ask: if new bitcoin stop being issued, what will incentivize miners to keep securing the network decades from now (around 2140\) when block rewards are near zero? The plan is that by then, Bitcoin usage will be high enough that transaction fees alone will incentivize miners. This is an open topic of discussion and one of the long-term economic questions for Bitcoin’s future. In the first decade‑plus of Bitcoin’s life however, the formula of digital scarcity and strong security has been effective. Bitcoin grew from an experiment worth essentially nothing into a globally recognized asset worth over 2 trillion dollars today, precisely because people came to trust its monetary policy and network resilience. As of 2025, millions of people hold bitcoin as a hedge against inflation or as “digital gold.” ### Bitcoin as an Asset, bringing it all together Bitcoin’s asset layer—its monetary policy and currency—directly addresses the inflation and trust in monetary authorities problems from Part 1. By coding in a fixed supply and transparent rules, Bitcoin removes the need to trust a central bank not to debase the currency. Anyone holding Bitcoin knows exactly what the supply is and will be, and thus can have confidence that their share of the total supply won’t be diluted unexpectedly. This predictability and scarcity is the polar opposite of our current fiat system, where money can be created in response to political or economic pressures. ## Mapping the “Fiat Problem” to the “Bitcoin Solution” In summary, the design of Bitcoin’s network, protocol, and asset each solves a piece of the puzzle: | The Fiat Problem | Bitcoin’s Solution | | ----- | ----- | | Trust in centralized institutions to store and send value: We rely on banks/payment processors that can fail or restrict access. | Decentralization & Trustless Consensus: Bitcoin removes the need to trust any single institution. Its ledger is maintained by a network of nodes, and transactions are verified by code and math (Proof-of-Work) rather than a bank clerk. No bank can freeze your Bitcoin or deny a valid transaction—the network will include it as long as it follows the rules. | | Single points of failure and control: A central bank or company can mismanage the system, get hacked, or be coerced by governments. | Peer-to-Peer Resilience: Bitcoin has no central point of attack or mismanagent. The network is global and redundant—even if parts are compromised, the ledger survives. This makes it censorship-resistant and robust against failures. As Satoshi noted, unlike Napster’s centralized model, a P2P network like Bitcoin “cannot be easily killed”. | | Inflation and currency debasement by authorities: Central banks printing money leading to inflation (your savings losing value). | Fixed Supply & Transparent Issuance: Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million and cannot be inflated by any authority. New coin issuance is on an algorithmic schedule (with halvings) known to all. This means no one can “debase” Bitcoin by creating more of it — a response to the historical breaches of trust by fiat issuers. | | Opaque, changeable monetary policy: It’s hard for an average person to know how many dollars will exist next year, or when policies might change | Radical Transparency & Predictability: In Bitcoin, every rule is public. At any time, you can verify the total bitcoin in circulation (and that it’s following the expected curve). Monetary policy is basically on autopilot, defined in code. It would take near-unanimous agreement among users to change it, which is highly unlikely—unlike fiat where a few officials can decide to print trillions. | | Intermediaries can censor or block transactions: Payment companies blocking donations to causes, banks freezing accounts. | Permissionless Transactions: Bitcoin allows anyone to send value to anyone else, anywhere, without needing approval. If you have bitcoin and an internet connection, you can pay someone directly—there’s no gatekeeper who can say “no.” Transactions are pseudonymous and cannot be unilaterally blocked. This gives individuals financial sovereignty on a global scale, fulfilling the internet’s promise of free exchange of value. | Each of Bitcoin’s fundamental design elements were crafted as an antidote to a pain point of the traditional system. It’s a complete rethinking of money that marries concepts from computer science, cryptography, and economics. Bitcoin’s network ensures no single entity is in control (solving trust and single-point failure issues), its protocol ensures agreement and security without authorities (solving double-spend and transaction trust issues), and its asset component provides a form of money with predictable rules (solving inflation and policy trust issues). It’s this holistic design that makes Bitcoin so fascinating—and also challenging to grasp at first. But by breaking it into the layers of network, protocol, and asset, we see how each layer builds on the prior to achieve Satoshi’s vision of a trust-minimized digital currency. ## Wrap Up Now that we’ve unpacked how Bitcoin works and why it was built this way, we should talk about how this has played out in the real world. In Part 5, we will step back from the technical foundations and dive into Bitcoin’s living history. We’ll trace the major milestones and turning points of Bitcoin’s journey: from the early days of trading for pennies and using Bitcoin on dark-net markets, through the wild volatility and bubbles, to more recent developments such as corporations placing bitcoin in their treasuries and even nations adopting it as legal tender. We’ll also explore the fierce debates and forks that have occurred along the way (for example, the famous “block size wars” that led to community splits and alternative versions of Bitcoin). These stories illustrate how Bitcoin, the technology, is also deeply shaped by social, economic, and political forces. Bitcoin’s narrative has continually evolved—from cypherpunk electronic cash, to digital gold for investors, to a potential inflation hedge in an era of money printing, and beyond. We’ll examine how each era and narrative shift impacted the project’s trajectory. Finally, we’ll consider the road ahead: the opportunities and challenges facing Bitcoin’s future. Scalability, energy usage, regulation, competition from other cryptocurrencies or central bank digital currencies. We will assess what threats could undermine Bitcoin and what innovations might reinforce it. After all, Bitcoin’s foundational design has proven resilient, but its story is still being written. --- ## Bitcoin Academy: Part 3 URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/academy/bitcoin/part-3/ Published: 2025-07-17 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Bitcoin as a Protocol: Paired Keys & Proof-of-Work Mining The Bitcoin protocol is essentially the rulebook that every node follows to maintain and update the ledger. It’s like the constitution of the Bitcoin network, defining how transactions work, how the ledger is structured, and how participants come to agreement (consensus) on the history of transactions. Two of the most important aspects of the protocol are: (a) how Bitcoin uses cryptography to define and secure ownership of funds, and (b) how Bitcoin achieves decentralized consensus on new transactions (preventing cheating like double-spending). Let’s break each of those down. ### Ownership via Cryptography: Private Keys and Addresses So, if there are no physical coins or centralized accounts, what does it mean to “own” Bitcoin? In Bitcoin, ownership is purely cryptographic. Possession of a Bitcoin simply means you control a secret digital key that grants you the right to move an entry in the ledger. This leverages the principles of public-key cryptography that we encountered in Part 1 (recall that in 1976, Whitfield Diffie and Martin Hellman introduced the idea of having paired keys: one public, one private). Every Bitcoin “account” or address is derived from a public key, and has a corresponding private key known only by the owner. We can summarize it as follows: - Public Key (Public Address): This is like your account number or a deposit address. It’s a string of letters and numbers that anyone can use to send you bitcoin. You can share it freely—it does not give anyone control, it only tells the network “if someone sends bitcoin to this address, update the ledger to credit that address.” Think of it like a locked mailbox on the street: anyone can drop money in by knowing your address. - Private Key: This is like the key to that mailbox—a secret passcode that allows you to access and spend the bitcoin associated with your address. When you want to send Bitcoin to someone else, your wallet software creates a transaction and digitally signs it with your private key. This digital signature is mathematically linked to your public key and proves that the owner of that address authorized the transaction. The beauty is that nodes can verify the signature using the public key without ever seeing your private key, thanks to cryptography. If the signature is valid, the network knows that the transaction is legitimate and the person sending the funds truly has the right to spend them. This concept of self-custody (that you control your own money via cryptographic keys) is revolutionary. It empowers individuals to be their own “bank,” addressing the Part 1 issue of having to trust institutions to hold and manage your funds. You are not relying on a bank’s promise or a government’s backing; you either have the key to spend your coins, or you don’t. There’s no in-between and no third party who can override that. This freedom, of course, comes with great responsibility. If you lose your private key, there is no password-reset or customer support to call. The coins associated with that key are effectively lost forever because nobody else (not even the network) can generate the same signature. In Bitcoin, a common saying is “not your keys, not your coins.” If you entrust your private keys to someone else (like an exchange or custodial wallet), you’re back in a situation of having to trust a third party. Bitcoin gives you the option to eliminate that trust by holding your own keys, putting control and risk squarely in your hands. In Bitcoin, code and cryptography replace the need to trust human institutions—the rules are enforced by unbreakable math rather than fallible middlemen. ## Proof-of-Work, explained Now we know what the Bitcoin ledger is (a shared record) and how ownership is controlled (by public/private keys and digital signatures). But there’s another critical puzzle: How do all those independent nodes agree on updates to the ledger? In other words, when new transactions like “Alice pays 1 bitcoin to Bob” are broadcast, who gets to add them to the official ledger, and in what order? And how do we prevent someone from cheating, say by trying to spend the same bitcoin twice in two different places (the infamous double-spending problem)? Without a central authority, this was a very hard problem to solve. This is the problem Satoshi Nakamoto’s whitepaper famously tackled. ### The Proof-of-Work Mining Process Bitcoin’s breakthrough is a system called Proof-of-Work mining, which allows the network of nodes to reach consensus on the history of transactions without any central trusted party. It works like a decentralized competition or lottery among the nodes: - Transaction Broadcast: When Alice sends Bitcoin to Bob, that transaction is sent out to the network. Every node that receives it will check that it’s valid (correct signature, Alice has enough balance, etc.), then relay it to others. So transactions spread peer-to-peer. Valid transactions enter a pool of pending transactions waiting to be added to the ledger. - Miners Gather Transactions into a Block: Some special nodes called miners take pending transactions and package them into a block, like assembling a new page of the ledger. Each block also links to the previous block (forming a chain, hence “blockchain”). - Proof-of-Work Puzzle: To qualify to add their block, a miner must solve a tough mathematical puzzle that the network generates. Solving this puzzle requires the miner’s computers to brute-force trillions of guesses—a process that consumes a lot of electricity and processing power. It’s like a lottery or a guess-the-number game: each hash attempt is a “ticket.” - Winning a Block: Approximately every 10 minutes, one lucky miner finds a valid solution that the protocol deems acceptable. This miner “wins” the round and earns the right to add their block of transactions to the blockchain. They immediately broadcast this new block to the whole network. - Verification and Consensus: Upon receiving the new block, all the other nodes verify it. They check that the Proof-of-Work solution is correct (which is easy to do once it’s found), and that all the transactions in the block are valid (no double-spends, correct signatures, no one creating coins out of thin air, etc.). If the block checks out, the nodes accept it and update their copy of the ledger to include the new transactions. Any pending transactions that were included in that block are now considered settled. With this, a new round begins for the next block, with miners now competing to extend the chain further. This mining process might sound complex, but the main takeaway is this: Proof-of-Work makes cheating or falsifying the ledger extremely costly and difficult. Why? Because if a bad actor wanted to, say, insert a fake transaction or modify an old one, they wouldn’t just need to do it on one computer. They’d need to re-do all the Proof-of-Work that has been done on that block and every block after it, and outpace the entire rest of the network of honest miners who continue to add new blocks on top. The longest chain of blocks (with the most cumulative work) is considered the valid history. Unless you have more computational power than everyone else combined, you won’t be able to catch up and surpass the legitimate chain. In essence, the system trusts the longest chain—and the longest chain represents the most work done (hence most computational “proof” of legitimacy). Satoshi described this elegantly: “It doesn’t matter who tells you the longest chain, the Proof-of-Work speaks for itself.”. Nodes automatically follow the chain with the most Proof-of-Work behind it, so no coercion or central authority is needed—the energy expended secures the network’s consensus. Another way to think of it: Bitcoin’s security comes from the fact that cheating requires doing an astronomically impractical amount of work. As long as the majority of miners are honest (following the incentives to earn the block reward by mining within the rules), their combined work will outweigh any attacker’s work, and thus honest consensus will always win out. The game theory is set up so that attacking Bitcoin would be prohibitively expensive and likely futile, whereas following the rules and mining honestly is profitable. It flips the trust model: you don’t have to trust any particular miner or node; you trust the aggregate Proof-of-Work done by the majority. ### The Proof-of-Work Mining Reward System Why would anyone participate in this expensive mining race? The Bitcoin protocol rewards miners for their work. When a miner successfully mines a block, they get to claim a block reward: new bitcoin created by the protocol (plus any transaction fees from the block’s transactions) go to the miner as a prize. This is how new bitcoin enter circulation—through mining rewards. In Bitcoin’s early days, the reward was 50 bitcoin per block; currently it’s 3.125 bitcoin, and it will continue to decrease over time (more on that in the next section). The reward creates a strong incentive for people to devote computing power to mining, which in turn secures the network. As computer scientist and early Bitcoin developer Hal Finney noted, mining is healthiest when it’s just barely profitable—if it’s too easy and profitable, more miners will join until the competition (and difficulty) rises, ensuring that no one miner can easily dominate. “Ultimately it’s good for the network for mining to be expensive. It makes it that much harder for a well-financed attacker to dominate the network,” Finney explained. In other words, the expense and effort of mining are features, not bugs: they are what make Bitcoin secure. As long as miners have to spend real resources (electricity, hardware) to earn bitcoin, an attacker would have to spend extraordinary resources to override the honest consensus—and even then with no guarantee of success. ## Bitcoin as a Protocol, bringing it all together Through this clever dance of incentives and cryptography, Bitcoin achieves something groundbreaking: a decentralized consensus. Each miner is just trying to win some bitcoin by following the rules, but collectively their competition results in a ledger that everyone trusts as the truth, without needing any trusted arbiter. The double-spend problem—the risk that digital money could be copied or spent twice—is solved by the rule that the network only trusts the longest, Proof-of-Work-heavy chain, which one person can’t fake without outworking the world. “Proof-of-work has the nice property that it can be relayed through untrusted middlemen,” Satoshi wrote, meaning you don’t have to trust who gives you the data. You can verify the work itself. This mechanism directly addresses the institutional trust problem from Part 1. We no longer need a bank or clearinghouse to say “this transaction is good, that one is double-spent.” The Bitcoin protocol and mining network take care of it automatically. With Proof-of-Work mining, Bitcoin provides a way for a global network to agree on a single ledger of transactions without trusting a central referee. This consensus protocol ensures that no fraudulent transaction or alteration can make it into the ledger unless an immense amount of work is done, far beyond what any attacker could likely muster. Combined with cryptographic ownership (private keys controlling funds), we now have a system where people can hold and transfer value online, directly, with trust placed in math and consensus rather than institutions. This solves the key issues of double-spending and the need for a trusted intermediary to validate transactions. We’ve essentially recreated the functions of a bank (keeping a ledger, verifying transactions, minting new currency) in a distributed, automated way. But one major aspect of “money” remains to to be examined. Bitcoin’s monetary policy: how new coins are issued, how the supply is controlled, and why this design choice matters. For that, let’s look at Bitcoin as an asset next. --- ## Bitcoin Academy: Part 2 URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/academy/bitcoin/part-2/ Published: 2025-07-16 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Recap In Part 1, we explored how money, the internet, and cryptography set the stage for Bitcoin’s invention. We also identified three major problems in the traditional financial system: - Money was centralized and politically vulnerable. Governments and banks could control or debase currency at will. - The internet hadn’t delivered financial independence. You could send an email directly, but sending money still required a bank or payment company as an intermediary. - Cryptography hadn’t replaced institutional trust. We lacked a way to transact value online without trusting a third party to keep the ledger. Then came the spark: the 2008 financial crisis, which dramatically highlighted these weaknesses. In response, a person (or group of people) using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto proposed Bitcoin as “a system where rules are enforced by code, not institutions,” directly aiming to solve these problems. But how can a currency have no central authority and no one to enforce the rules? How do strangers around the world agree on which digital transactions are valid without trusting a bank or government? In Part 2 of our series, we’ll look under the hood at Bitcoin’s design and see how it works as a trustless, decentralized payment system. We’ll introduce Bitcoin using a three-layer framework: the network, the protocol, and the asset. Let’s dive in, starting with the Bitcoin network. Terminology note: - Bitcoin (capital “B”) refers to the open‑source network‑protocol, the distributed system that records and verifies transactions. - bitcoin (lower-case “b”) denotes the native digital currency unit that circulates on that network (e.g., “3 bitcoin”). Throughout this article, we’ll follow that convention to keep the roles of the network/protocol and the cryptocurrency clear. ## Bitcoin as a Network: The Decentralized Blockchain Ledger ### What’s a blockchain? And what’s a node? Imagine a checkbook or a spreadsheet that everyone in the world shares and updates. That’s essentially what Bitcoin is: a global ledger of accounts and balances maintained collectively by thousands of computers. In fact, there are no physical “coins” at all. Bitcoin exists purely as entries on this distributed ledger. When Alice sends 1 bitcoin to Bob, no token jumps from her computer to his; instead, every computer in the network updates its copy of the ledger to deduct 1 bitcoin from Alice’s address and add 1 bitcoin to Bob’s. The transaction is just a recorded change in this shared database that everyone can see and verify. Each bitcoin is nothing more (or less) than a collective agreement reflected on the ledger that “Alice has X bitcoin, Bob has Y bitcoin,” and so on. Crucially, everyone who runs the Bitcoin software has an identical copy of this ledger, known as the blockchain. When a computer runs Bitcoin software and holds a copy of this blockchain, we call this computer a “node.” Nodes provide a single source of truth for all Bitcoin transactions. By design, the blockchain on each node is append-only. New transactions can be added as new “blocks,” but past records are extraordinarily hard to alter or erase. In essence, Bitcoin is a complete history of transactions from the very first entry (the genesis block created by Satoshi in January 2009\) to the latest block added just minutes ago. This distributed ledger lays the groundwork for a financial system that any participant can audit and trust is accurate, without needing to trust any single entity. It’s a direct answer to the problem of opaque, centralized record-keeping: in Bitcoin, the records are transparent and verified by all. ### Nodes make Bitcoin a peer-to-peer network and remove the need for a central authority If Bitcoin is a global ledger, who maintains it? The answer is: everyone who participates. The Bitcoin network is a peer-to-peer (P2P) network formed by thousands of independent nodes. These nodes connect directly to each other over the internet, rather than through any central server. There is no headquarters or Bitcoin company in charge. Every node holds the full Bitcoin blockchain and follows the same rules to validate transactions. This decentralized architecture is what gives Bitcoin its resilience and trust-minimizing properties. As Satoshi Nakamoto noted when unveiling Bitcoin, “Governments are good at cutting off the heads of centrally controlled networks like Napster, but pure P2P networks like Gnutella and Tor seem to be holding their own.” In other words, a network with no single point of control cannot be easily killed or censored. If one node goes offline, nothing is lost—the remaining nodes still collectively have the ledger. There is no single “head” to cut off. Bitcoin’s pure P2P model for money means no bank or intermediary is needed to verify who owns what. This structure makes Bitcoin borderless and censorship-resistant. Transactions spread across the network, like news through a crowd. There’s no central authority that can intercept or block a payment. Anyone with an internet connection can join as a node and help enforce the rules, whether they’re in San Diego or Singapore. By distributing the ledger across countless peers, Bitcoin creates a system where no single entity can falsify records, seize someone’s funds, or shut the whole thing down. This directly addresses the “single point of failure” problem from Part 1: there is no central bank or company that the entire system relies on, so there’s no single point whose failure (or bad behavior) could compromise the network. A decentralized network like Bitcoin’s offers several key advantages over traditional centralized systems: - Resilience: There’s no central server that can fail or be attacked to bring Bitcoin down—the network routes around damage, making it extremely hard to shut off. - Censorship Resistance: No authority can selectively block or reverse transactions, because no one controls the ledger. The lack of a central gatekeeper means no one can “freeze” your Bitcoin or deny you access due to politics or policy. - Permissionless Access: Anyone can participate without needing approval from a bank or government. This open access means Bitcoin fulfills the internet’s promise of financial independence—you don’t need a trusted intermediary to send money online. ### Venmo vs Bitcoin To make this more concrete, let’s compare Bitcoin to the popular centralized payment application Venmo. Both let you send money digitally, but under the hood they work very differently. | Feature | Venmo | Bitcoin | | ----- | ----- | ----- | | Who Controls the Ledger? | Company maintains a private ledger of balances and transactions on its servers. Users trust Venmo to update accounts correctly. | Thousands of independent nodes maintain Bitcoin’s public ledger (the blockchain) collectively. No single entity is in charge. | | Trust and Permission | You must trust Venmo (and connected banks) to hold your funds and honor transactions. Venmo can reverse payments or freeze accounts at its discretion, and users need permission (an account, bank link, etc.) to use it. | Trustless and permissionless. Users hold their own bitcoin and transact directly. As long as you follow the protocol rules, the network will process your transaction. No account or permission is required to use Bitcoin; just a computer and internet. | | Ledger Transparency | Only Venmo’s servers “see” the full transaction history. Users see their own balance and a social feed, but must trust Venmo’s internal records. | The entire Bitcoin transaction history is public on the blockchain. Anyone can verify balances. | | Security & Censorship | All transactions funnel through Venmo’s systems, which could be hacked or taken down. Governments can pressure Venmo to block payments or seize funds. Users rely on Venmo’s security practices and compliance. | No central server to hack or shut down. An attacker would need to compromise the majority of the global network—which is practically impossible. Censorship is very difficult because there is no single company or country to pressure. Security comes from cryptography and network consensus rather than corporate firewalls. | | Global Payments | Mostly limited to domestic transfers and withdrawing to a bank. Doing cross-border transfers is slower or not supported. Weekends and holidays affect when funds will settle. | Bitcoin’s global nature allows cross-border value transfer 24/7 without intermediaries, which are faster and less restrictive than traditional bank wires. | Venmo embodies the old model: a centrally-controlled system where users must trust the middleman and live within that platform’s constraints. Bitcoin represents a new model: an open, permissionless network where users can transact with anyone, anywhere without needing to trust a third party. This doesn’t mean Bitcoin is “better” in all cases—but it offers an alternative approach to moving value, one designed to solve the very trust and control issues inherent in centralized systems. ### Bitcoin as a Network, bringing it all together By designing a network with no central authority, Bitcoin directly tackles two problems we discussed in Part 1: trust in institutions and central points of failure. There’s no bank or company that needs to be trusted to keep the ledger or facilitate transactions. The network of nodes collectively does that. And without a single controlling entity, it’s much harder for the system to fail or for any one party to abuse it. However, a decentralized network alone isn’t enough. We still need a way for all these independent nodes to agree on which transactions to add to the ledger—in other words, a way to reach consensus on the ledger’s state. We also need a way for individuals to securely own and transfer bitcoin on this open ledger (so that only the rightful owner can spend their funds). These are challenges addressed by the Bitcoin protocol, which we’ll explore next. --- ## Bitcoin Academy: Part 1 URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/academy/bitcoin/part-1/ Published: 2025-07-14 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team Crypto moves fast, and the pace of innovation shows no signs of slowing. Newcomers and seasoned investors alike are scrambling to keep up. Triple Point Strategy exists to cut through the noise. Our research breaks down everything from the real‑world impact of Bitcoin’s supply cap to why zero‑knowledge proofs might unlock the next wave of decentrailzed finance. Some of you already live and breathe crypto; others have just downloaded Coinbase and are wondering why Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash both exist. Wherever you sit on that spectrum, our goal is the same: turn complexity into clarity. This is where Triple Point Strategy’s Academy comes in. Academy is a companion to our Insights series. Insights tackles trending crypto topics. Academy slows the pace, focusing on one landmark technology at a time. Each Academy research brief distills the mechanics, economics, and design philosophy of a single protocol into clear, approachable language. Our goal is to bring readers fully up to speed on the technology—delivering a comprehensive deep dive without the jargon or information overload. We begin with Bitcoin Academy: a concise tour of how Bitcoin works, why it’s revolutionary, and what still makes it the cornerstone of the crypto ecosystem today. To understand Bitcoin, we first need to explore two things: - The core innovations that made it possible - The catalyst that inspired its creation ## Innovation 1: Money Before Bitcoin, before banks, before even coins—there was a problem humans needed to solve: how to trade with one another. In early societies, barter was the first solution. If you had wheat and your neighbor had fish, you could make a trade—assuming you both wanted what the other had, at the same time, in the right amounts. But barter quickly hit its limits. It’s inefficient, fragile, and depends on what's called the coincidence of wants. Put simply, both parties must want what the other is offering simultaneously. The solution? Money: a shared medium that everyone agrees has value—not because it’s useful on its own, but because others will accept it in exchange. Over time, societies experimented with many forms of money: shells, beads, livestock, salt, stones, metal coins, and eventually paper notes. Each had to solve three basic problems: - Store of value: it should retain worth over time - Medium of exchange: it must be widely accepted - Unit of account: it should allow value to be measured and compared Eventually, precious metals like gold and silver emerged as dominant tools. They were scarce, durable, portable, and widely recognized (ideal monetary traits). But even gold had limits: it’s heavy, hard to divide, and inconvenient for daily use. That led to representative money—paper notes backed by gold or silver stored in banks. Then came fiat currency. Today, most national currencies, such as the U.S. dollar, euro, and yen are fiat. “Fiat” means the currency has value by government decree. It isn’t backed by gold or any physical commodity. Instead, it relies on trust—trust in governments, in central banks, and in the belief that others will continue accepting it tomorrow. Fiat currencies are powerful and flexible, enabling rapid payments and broad global coordination. But they come with trade-offs: inflation risk, centralized control, and political manipulation. As money became more digital in the 20th century, the infrastructure behind it remained largely analog. Transactions flowed through banks, clearinghouses, and closed networks. These systems were built for a pre-internet world. Moving money still required intermediaries, approvals, and access granted by gatekeepers. That began to change with the rise of the internet. ## Innovation 2: The Internet In the early days, computers were isolated machines. You could program them, store data, and run calculations, but they couldn’t communicate. That changed in the late 1960s with ARPANET, a U.S. research project that pioneered linking computers over distance—the direct predecessor of the internet. It introduced packet switching, a technique that made communication faster and more resilient. Over the following decades, the internet evolved from a military experiment into a global communication backbone. The creation of TCP/IP in the 1980s standardized how data moved through networks. And in 1991, Tim Berners-Lee launched the World Wide Web, making it easy for anyone to browse, publish, and link information. By the 2000s, the internet had transformed global communication, commerce, and finance. Banks launched online portals. Credit cards and payment processors moved onto the web. Financial interactions became more convenient. However, they were still centralized. Intermediaries held the keys, controlled the rules, and could revoke access at any time. Then something new emerged: peer-to-peer protocols. Systems like Napster, BitTorrent, and Gnutella showed that decentralized networks could scale. You didn’t need a central server—just enough participants agreeing to the same protocol. Naturally, people began asking: Could we use that model to move money? The first wave of answers was PayPal and WebMoney. These services offered faster payments, but still relied on centralized control. Accounts could be frozen, transactions reversed, access denied. Meanwhile, technologists and cryptographers began experimenting with digital cash: projects like e-gold, b-money, and Bit Gold. But these efforts struggled with technical limitations and were often shut down by regulators. By 2008, the internet had solved global connectivity, but not financial sovereignty. You could send an email without permission. But to send money, you still had to go through a gatekeeper. ## Innovation 3: Cryptography That gatekeeping problem wasn’t just technical; it was a matter of trust. On an open network like the internet, anyone can intercept or manipulate data. Without safeguards, digital transactions could be forged, duplicated, or censored. What was needed was a way to establish trust in a trustless environment. That’s what cryptography solves. For most of history, cryptography was used to protect secrets. The Greeks used a scytale, a cylinder-wrapped parchment only readable with the right rod. Caesar used substitution ciphers to shift letters in the alphabet. These early systems relied on shared secrets: both sender and receiver had to know the “secret key.” If that key was discovered, the message, and the system, were compromised. The 20th century changed everything. During World War II, cryptography became a scientific discipline. Germany’s Enigma machine used mechanical ciphers that rotated daily. The Allied effort to crack it, led by Alan Turing, highlighted both the power and fragility of secret-key systems. Then came a breakthrough. In 1976, public-key cryptography was invented. For the first time, two parties could communicate securely without having exchanged a secret key. It relied on two linked keys: - A public key, which anyone could see and use to encrypt messages - A private key, which only the recipient held and could use to decrypt those messages This made it possible to secure digital communication between strangers. It also enabled digital identity, authentication, and eventually secure financial transactions. By the early 2000s, cryptography was everywhere. SSL/TLS protected websites. Passwords were hashed and encrypted. Banks secured user data. And governments used cryptography for both defense and surveillance. Meanwhile, the cypherpunks—a group of privacy-focused technologists—were exploring a more radical vision. They saw cryptography not just as a tool for safety, but as a weapon against centralized power. It offered a way to enable individual freedom in the digital age. By 2008, all the core cryptographic tools were in place. But no one had yet woven them into a fully decentralized currency. The final step was still missing—inspiration. ## The Catalyst: The 2008 Financial Crisis By the end of 2008, the stage was set. - We had money, but it was centralized and politically vulnerable. - We had the internet, but it hadn’t delivered financial independence. - We had cryptography, but it hadn’t yet replaced institutional trust. Then came the spark: the global financial crisis. Centuries-old banks collapsed. Governments rushed to issue bailouts. Millions lost jobs, homes, and savings. The trust-based financial system—the one people assumed was stable—revealed its cracks. Somewhere in the midst of that chaos, a person or group using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto published a whitepaper: “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.” On January 3, 2009, the Bitcoin network launched. Embedded in its first block was a message: “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.” It referenced the front-page headline of The Times from the United Kingdom, reporting that the British government was preparing to bail out major banks for the second time. The quote wasn’t just a timestamp; it was a statement of intent. It was a subtle but powerful indictment of a failing financial system. Over the following months, Satoshi corresponded with early Bitcoin contributors. The message was consistent: Bitcoin was not about profit or hype. It was about building a system that didn’t require trust in banks, corporations, or governments. “The root problem with conventional currency is all the trust that’s required to make it work,” Satoshi wrote in 2009. “The central bank must be trusted not to debase the currency, but the history of fiat currencies is full of breaches of that trust.” Bitcoin wasn’t born out of academic curiosity. It was a response to failure. It was a proposal for a system in which rules are enforced by code, not institutions. ## What’s Next In our next post, we’ll explore how these three innovations—money, the internet, and cryptography—came together in Bitcoin’s design. We’ll look under the hood at how Bitcoin works, and how a decentralized network of people, companies, and nations can enforce a shared monetary system without ever trusting one another. --- ## Long Live The Blue King: A Brief History of Failed "Ethereum Killers" URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/long-live-the-blue-king/ Published: 2025-07-11 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Ethereum’s moat keeps deepening: Ethereum’s credible neutrality, vast developer base, and ever-growing liquidity dwarfs every other smart-contract chain, leaving “faster” rivals with little room to compete - Four heavily funded “Ethereum killers”(NEO, ADA, EOS, DOT) share one fate: Together they raised more than $5 billion with the promise of superior performance. Today, they command less than 1% of the DeFi ecosystem, showing that technological advances without network effects lead to stagnation. - The hype cycle repeats: New challengers such as Solana, Aptos, and Sui are recycling the same high-TPS headlines and war-chest narratives, while each Ethereum upgrade erodes their few remaining selling points before they reach critical mass. - Investors should follow the flywheel, not the flash: Sustainable value accrues where developers, users, and capital compound; so far, only Ethereum has proven that it can convert incremental improvements into enduring dominance. ## How Ethereum earned (and keeps) the crown Since launching in 2015, Ethereum has been the blockchain platform everyone wants to beat. Its initial fundraising was open and decentralized, attracting support from thousands of small investors. Ethereum’s key innovation—permissionless, self-executing code referred to as smart contracts—led to entirely new markets such as tokens, NFTs, and powerful decentralized applications. By the end of the 2010s, Ethereum was second only to Bitcoin in market value, but was clearly first in developer interest. The Ethereum network powered both the Initial Coin Offering (ICO) boom of 2017 and the Decentralized Finance (DeFi) explosion of 2020. That success immediately drew copycats. Investors who missed Ethereum’s meteoric rise hunted for the “next Ethereum,” pouring billions into fresh smart contract projects labeled as “Ethereum killers.” These upstarts promised higher throughput, lower transaction fees, and slicker developer tooling. All were fueled by giant private rounds that handed venture capitalists large early stakes—an opportunity Ethereum’s widely distributed supply never offered. Owning 20 percent of a new token supply at pennies on the dollar beats buying ETH on open markets, so term sheets filled up fast. Media hyperbole amplified the storylines, stoking FOMO and speculative capital. However, unseating Ethereum proved far tougher than the glossy pitch decks promised. Ethereum’s early advantages included: - Strong network effects: An enormous community of developers, widely used standards like ERC-20, and deep pools of liquidity kept people building on Ethereum. - Scaling while maintaining decentralization: Ethereum has continued to scale by shifting high-volume transactions to its Layer-2 ecosystem. While doing this, it has also been able to maintain the security, decentralization, and credible neutrality that makes Ethereum so attractive to build on. - Strategic protocol upgrades: The shift to proof-of-stake in 2022 dramatically lowered energy use and increased network capacity. High fees once common on Ethereum became more manageable as transactions moved off-chain, and mechanisms like EIP-1559 turned network usage into a deflationary advantage for ETH holders. Rivals stumbled on the same obstacles as Ethereum, and superior tech on paper proved unable to uproot an economy already entrenched with stablecoins, NFTs, and familiar financial technologies. Many contenders launched at multibillion-dollar valuations only to watch usage evaporate once early hype met the reality of immature tooling, thin user demand, and centralization trade-offs. Ethereum’s open-source culture and proven security kept builders and capital anchored where the deepest liquidity already lived, reinforcing the very moat challengers hoped to breach. The tally is plain: self-proclaimed “Ethereum killers” have, at best, carved out modest niches rather than dethroned the leader. In our research brief, we revisit four of the most ambitious attempts (NEO, Cardano, EOS, and Polkadot) to see what they promised, how they launched, and why reality diverged from the hype. Their stories offer lessons, and a warning, for the latest crop of challengers now eyeing Ethereum’s crown. ## They promised, they flew, they tanked ### NEO NEO started as AntShares in 2014 and rebranded in 2017, pitching itself as China’s answer to Ethereum. It bragged about a “faster, government-friendly” design and let developers code in familiar languages like C# and Java. Headlines hyped a “Chinese Ethereum killer,” complete with visions of state backing and “millions of transactions per second (TPS).” Investors chased the dream: a token sold for pennies in 2016 soared to a triple-digit price just 18 months later. Unfortunately for NEO, progress relied on a tiny council and a messy network upgrade that confused users. As Ethereum’s open ecosystem kept pulling in builders and capital, NEO’s momentum evaporated. By mid-2025, the onetime challenger drifts near $5 (about 97% below its peak) and is now more cautionary tale than successor. ### Cardano (ADA) Cardano began in 2015 as an academic project led by Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson and went live in 2017. It promised a greener proof-of-stake engine and a modular design to fix Ethereum’s slow, costly traffic. The press hailed a “scientifically proven Ethereum killer,” and investors piled in, pushing ADA from fractions of a cent to about $3 by late 2021. However, smart-contract tools rolled out in slow, committee-guided phases that frustrated builders. Developers moved to faster-moving Ethereum rollups while Cardano kept debating research and votes. By mid-2025, ADA drifts near $0.60 (about 80% below its peak), showing that replacing Ethereum is easier to promise than to deliver. ### EOS EOS erupted in 2017 by raising $4 billion through its ICO. The protocol promised to be faster, cheaper, and more business-friendly than Ethereum. Slick promos dubbed it “Ethereum, but free,” and investors bought in, sending the token from about $1 to $21 and pushing EOS into crypto’s top five assets by market capitalization. Then the cracks showed: decisions were made behind closed doors, accounts were frozen, and bitter fights erupted over the giant treasury. Builders lost patience and migrated to more open ecosystems while Ethereum kept compounding users and apps. Conference buzz faded, upgrades slowed, and daily activity dwindled. By mid-2025 EOS trades around $0.80—roughly 95% below its peak—a cautionary tale that money and marketing can’t replace organic adoption. ### Polkadot (DOT) Polkadot began in 2016 when Ethereum co-founder Gavin Wood imagined a network of many blockchains that could talk to each other. It finally launched in 2020 with a central Relay Chain and “parachains” meant to run side by side, skirting Ethereum’s network congestion. The story was compelling: specialized chains that share security and scale horizontally. Investors bought in. DOT debuted around $3 and rocketed to $55 in 2021, briefly vaulting Polkadot into crypto’s top tier. However, securing a parachain slot was costly, the tooling felt academic, and cross-chain moves often broke, slowing real adoption. Meanwhile, Ethereum rollups offered simpler scaling and kept the users and liquidity that builders craved. By mid-2025, DOT drifts near $4 (about 90% below its peak), admired more for its white papers than for everyday apps. ## Challengers follow a pattern For eight years, project after project has claimed it would replace Ethereum. They raise huge sums, grab headlines, and then fade when real adoption never arrives. Several common patterns explain why this cycle repeats: - Network effects beat specs: Ethereum’s community momentum is hard to match. Ethereum’s real advantage is its people: hundreds of thousands of developers, millions of users, and the deepest liquidity in crypto. A newcomer might process transactions faster or cheaper, but rebuilding that community and capital from scratch is onerous. - Hype often peaks before products are ready: Projects like EOS, which raised $4 billion, and Cardano, briefly valued at $90 billion, rose dramatically based on big promises. When the expected apps, revenue, and daily users failed to appear on schedule, prices and attention fell just as sharply as they had risen. - Ethereum continues improving: Layer-2 rollups, the 2022 shift to proof-of-stake, and upcoming sharding upgrades have steadily lowered fees and boosted speed without forcing users to leave the ecosystem. Every improvement erodes a rival’s main selling point, because builders can stay on Ethereum and still gain the performance they need. - Decentralization and neutrality attract investment: Ethereum’s commitment to decentralization and credible neutrality makes it trustworthy for users, developers, and institutions. This helps Ethereum resist censorship and central control, making it appealing for long-term investment. - New chains lack a killer use case: Ethereum’s breakthrough was programmable finance; rivals have tried to clone the same DeFi experience instead of owning a new domain—gaming, supply chains, or something big. Without that fresh anchor, they won’t pull in builders, users, or liquidity. Recently, Solana, Aptos, and Sui have stepped up as the latest “Ethereum killers,” but their challenges look familiar. Their marketing—“50,000 TPS,” “sub-second finality,” “infinite scalability”—mirrors EOS’s million-TPS boast and Cardano’s peer-reviewed perfection. Each chain has raised huge war chests and skyrocketed in value before shipping a breakout app, replaying the “hype-first, utility-later” pattern that felled earlier contenders. Meanwhile, Ethereum rollups already cut fees to fractions of a cent. Its shift to proof-of-stake adds strong, incentive-driven security, and forthcoming sharding upgrades keep the roadmap on track. As a result, speed and cost alone do not give rivals an edge. Most important, Ethereum’s network effects compound daily. Unless these newcomers can quickly match that community gravity and land a must-have application that anchors users, they’re likely to join the long list of aspirants who threw punches that Ethereum barely felt. ## Wrap-Up Most “Ethereum killers” fade not for lack of ambition, but because unseating a moving target with the deepest roots in crypto is hard. History is littered with big promises and thin results. Ralph Waldo Emerson put it plainly: “When you strike at a king, you must kill him.” Half-measures rarely topple a monarch who keeps improving. At Triple Point Strategy, we read market cycles the way historians study empires. With every new blockchain, we ask a simple question: does it solve a problem Ethereum cannot? So far, the data says no. Ethereum still owns the largest talent base, deepest liquidity, and quickest pace of innovation. Until the numbers change, most of our capital stays with the chain that drives onchain activity and value capture; however, we stay ready to pivot the moment a true rival emerges. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## Bitcoin's Looming Security Crisis URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/bitcoin-security-crisis/ Published: 2025-06-28 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Bitcoin’s security relies on a compensation mechanism that is designed to shrink over time, creating long-term risks for the network’s health and ability to incentivize miners. - Transaction fees are unlikely to scale quickly enough to fill the gap, and relying solely on price appreciation has hard limits. - If miner incentives fall too low, the network becomes vulnerable to 51% attacks — a threat that makes the network fragile and grows more plausible over time without a major intervention. - Investors should recognize that crypto protocols involve complex trade-offs, and long-term capital should be guided by a deep understanding of these dynamics. ## Intro There is no denying Bitcoin’s meteoric rise. In 2025, Bitcoin broke $110,000, capital is pouring into newly approved spot ETFs, and the cryptocurrency is being added to the balance sheets of governments and corporations alike. Despite all the positive signals, Bitcoin’s security budget presents a looming existential risk that every current and prospective Bitcoin investor should understand. ## What Is Bitcoin’s Security Budget? To appreciate why Bitcoin’s security budget is such a risk, it helps to first understand how the network is secured. Bitcoin uses a consensus mechanism called Proof of Work to verify transactions on the network. Proof of Work at a high level involves: - Users creating Bitcoin transactions - Miners grouping those transactions into blocks - Miners verifying the block via a Bitcoin-specific hashing algorithm - The Bitcoin network compensating the first miner to verify the block via a “block reward” Bitcoin mining is highly competitive and resource intensive. It requires a significant investment in specialized servers and high electricity costs to run the hardware. The block reward is how miners are compensated for the work they do to secure the network. The security budget is simply the block reward expressed in fiat currency (i.e. USD). One of the critical things to understand about the block reward is that it consists of two parts: transaction fees and the block subsidy. Transaction fees are exactly as they sound. Users pay a small fee when executing a transaction and those fees typically account for less than 5% of the block reward. The block subsidy is new bitcoin that is minted after each block is verified. The chart below shows the security budget’s composition for all blocks verified each month: The key takeaway here is that, in a typical month, the block subsidy represents practically all of Bitcoin’s security budget. With that in mind, we can now discuss how Bitcoin’s current design directly conflicts with its security budget. ## How Bitcoin’s Design Undermines The Security Budget Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million is a key feature of the protocol. Today, approximately 94% of the total bitcoin supply is available for use. The remaining 6% will be released via the block subsidy system through the year 2140. When Bitcoin first launched in 2009, the block subsidy was 50 bitcoin. Approximately every 4 years, the subsidy is cut in half. The chart below shows the halving schedule for the block subsidy. You can see that, after 2032, the subsidy drops below one bitcoin. This drop is the core problem with Bitcoin’s security budget. Mining bitcoin can be expensive, depending on the geography, yet the primary mechanism to compensate miners is rapidly shrinking. To ensure miners are profitable and continue to secure the network, either the price of Bitcoin must rise or the total transaction fees per block will need to increase. ## Transaction Fees Are Unlikely To Fix The Issue While a surge in transaction fees could technically solve the security budget issue, we believe that outcome is unlikely to happen organically. The Bitcoin network would need to see a significant increase in both transaction volume and fees per transaction to make up for the diminishing block subsidy. Higher fees discourage lower transaction values, which negatively affects transaction volume. Additionally, Bitcoin appears to be following the “digital gold” rather than the “digital money” narrative. As a result, we expect people will use bitcoin as a long-term store of value rather than a means for frequent and daily transactions. Right now, there just isn’t line of sight to a clear catalyst for increased transaction volume other than people and entities periodically accumulating bitcoin. As such, the transaction fee solution appears highly unlikely. ## Price Appreciation Will Help But Has Limitations Bitcoin’s price appreciation has helped maintain network security through four halving events. With a market capitalization of around $2 trillion, the asset would need to double in value every four years to sustain its current security budget. The problem is that global wealth stands at around $500 trillion. While there is plenty of room for Bitcoin’s value to grow, there are limitations as to how much capital will be allocated to the asset. Here is a chart showing the total market capitalization of Bitcoin assuming the price doubles every four years to keep up with each halving event. And here is a chart showing Bitcoin’s current market capitalization relative to other global reserve asset benchmarks: The key takeaway here is that Bitcoin will need to reach the market capitalization of gold by the year 2040 and match the total value of oil (a further 300% increase) just 8 years later. To achieve this valuation, Bitcoin would need to be a substantial magnet for global wealth with 10s of trillions of dollars flowing into the asset. Those trillions of dollars would also need to flow out of another asset class. Investors should carefully consider where Bitcoin’s required rate of appreciation starts to look unreasonable. ## An Underfunded Security Budget Leads To A Fragile Network If the security budget can’t keep up with miners’ operational costs, it’s rational for them to stop securing the network. Doing so would reduce the hash rate (the total computing power securing the network) and open the Bitcoin network up to a “51% attack”. A 51% attack is where a single or coordinated group of bad actors control more than 51% of the hash rate. If a 51% attack were to occur, these bad actors could, in theory, double spend their bitcoin, deny new transactions from being validated, or even rewrite Bitcoin’s transaction history. A 51% attack would shake investor’s confidence in Bitcoin, and its value would likely plummet. Given it would cost several billion dollars to conduct a 51% attack, we believe nation states looking to disrupt rival countries would be the most likely to conduct such an attack. ## Addressing Bitcoin’s Broken Security Budget Despite the concerns noted above, there are options and scenarios that would mitigate Bitcoin’s security budget risk. We believe there are two broad buckets of solutions: ### Technical Solutions The Bitcoin Core development team could advocate for a variety of technical changes to address the security budget issue. This includes: - Increasing the total supply of bitcoin above 21 million units or implementing a tail emission (i.e. a tiny block subsidy included in the block reward in perpetuity) - Increasing the number of transactions included within each block to boost transaction fees per block - Changing the consensus mechanism from Proof of Work to Proof of Stake, as Ethereum did, to shift the means to conduct a 51% attack from computing power to bitcoin holdings Despite there being multiple technical solutions, historically, the Bitcoin Core community has rejected technical changes which deviate from Bitcoin's original vision. Hence, getting these changes implemented would be unlikely without extreme external pressures. ### Corporations And Governments Take An Active Role In Mining If corporations and governments continue to add bitcoin to their balance sheets as we expect, they will be incentivized to keep the network secure. If the security budget cannot consistently cover miner’s operational costs, we could see corporations and governments become more active in the mining ecosystem. These entities may eventually build out their own mining operations or subcontract it out to established and reputable Bitcoin mining companies. While this approach helps with the security budget issue, unfortunately, the solution is not bulletproof and leaves the network fragile. If the hash rate is low enough, one or more governments still have the ability to buy their way into controlling 51% of the hash rate. With that being said, the risk can likely be mitigated via onchain data and global economic alliances. While it isn’t a perfect outcome, it is the one we feel is the most likely to occur. ## Wrapping Up Bitcoin’s security budget is not an immediate crisis, but it is a slow-moving and structural challenge that grows more pressing with time. No one can say with certainty when it will begin to materially impact the network. It could be decades away, or it could become an issue as soon as the next halving in 2028. What we do know is that without a change, the math doesn’t look good. The subsidy shrinks, miner incentives drop, and eventually the network may be forced to reckon with trade-offs that have been easy to ignore during periods of growth. This is not a risk that shows up in Bitcoin’s price chart, market cap, or ETF flows. It’s buried in the protocol’s economic architecture — a design feature that made sense in 2009 but looks increasingly fragile in a world where trillions of dollars may soon rely on the security of this system. For both current and prospective investors, the takeaway is simple: keep watching. Bitcoin is not static. It is an evolving system built on complex trade-offs, and long-term capital should be allocated with those dynamics in mind. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## The GENIUS Act: A New Era for U.S. Crypto Leadership and Adoption URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/the-genius-act/ Published: 2025-06-20 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Stablecoins have outgrown the regulatory gray zone: With over $230 billion in circulation and systemic risks exposed by recent incidents, the United States is stepping in to formalize what stablecoins are and who gets to issue them. - The GENIUS Act redefines stablecoins as fully regulated digital dollars: Under the Act, only licensed entities can issue USD stablecoins. These tokens must be 100% backed by cash or short-term Treasuries, comply with comprehensive AML/KYC requirements, and give holders deposit-like protections that surpass FDIC–even in bankruptcy. - This regulation turns stablecoins into institutional-grade financial infrastructure: With legal clarity and real-time settlement, GENIUS-approved coins push forward mainstream crypto adoption by becoming viable tools for everyday payments, corporate treasuries, and financial markets. The speed of crypto meets the safety of traditional finance. - The GENIUS Act provides a new engine for dollar dominance: By exporting its regulatory standards, anchoring stablecoins to T-bills, and sidelining unlicensed competitors, the U.S. is turning regulated crypto dollars into a global benchmark–accelerating both adoption and dollarization onchain. ## A Pivotal Moment for Digital Dollars Stablecoins now exceed $230 billion in market capitalization and power most onchain trading. A stablecoin is a crypto token that maintains a one-to-one pegged value with a fiat currency (typically the U.S. dollar). One USDT stablecoin, for example, equates to one U.S. dollar. Each token is backed by safe reserves, giving users instant, stable, and low-fee digital cash. By living on blockchain rails, stablecoins combine real-time global settlement with the reliability of a stable token price. This design gives users the best of both decentralized and traditional finance: crypto speed without the volatility. That utility has driven rapid adoption, but the market has grown in a regulatory vacuum. TerraUSD’s collapse in 2022 erased roughly $40 billion in market value. That disaster, followed by USDC’s brief de-peg in 2023, revealed serious risks for consumers and spurred lawmakers to act. Enter the GENIUS Act (S. 1582). Introduced in early 2025, the GENIUS Act (the “Act”) cleared the Senate Banking Committee and sailed through a 68-30, bipartisan Senate vote in June. The bill would bring “payment stablecoins” under bank-style oversight: full-reserve backing, independent audits, and strict AML controls. Backers say clear rules would build trust, stop panic withdrawals, and keep the dollar on top by turning U.S. stablecoins into the global norm. Critics counter that the stricter rules could reduce issuer profits and undermine the crypto industry’s aspirations for decentralization. In our analysis, we unpack the GENIUS Act’s core provisions and map their likely impact on U.S. dollar strength, DeFi ecosystems, and broader markets. We’ll break down five key parts of the legislation and spell out what each piece means both now and in the long run. ## Five Key Provisions of the GENIUS Act ### 1. Only Regulated Entities Can Issue Stablecoins #### Overview Under §3(a) of the GENIUS Act, it becomes illegal for anyone to issue a USD stablecoin unless they hold an approved federal or state license. In effect, minting a dollar-pegged token now resembles opening a bank–you must secure a charter. Three paths qualify: - National bank or credit-union charter - New Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) “stablecoin institution” charter for fintechs - State trust charter that meets federal standards Exchanges and payment apps have three years to drop any coin that lacks one of those charters, giving today’s unlicensed issuers a brief window to comply or exit the U.S. market. Foreign projects face the same bar. They must register in the United States and prove their home oversight is equally strict, or their tokens cannot be offered to American users. #### Immediate Impact - Bank-Style Licensing Will Shrink the Stablecoin Field: U.S.-based issuers such as Circle and Paxos would have to get formal licenses, and offshore players like Tether would either have to register or leave the American market. By demanding a bank-style license, the law would make stablecoin creation a regulated privilege, narrowing the industry to a few big compliant firms. - Grace-Period Deadline Will Funnel U.S. Liquidity into Licensed Stablecoins: Once the grace period ends, exchanges and payment apps will drop–or block–any stablecoin without a license, channeling United States users into the newly approved coins. This shift will pack more liquidity into those coins, making them both more useful and even more critical to DeFi. #### Long-Term Implications - GENIUS Takes U.S. Stablecoin Rules Global: Tight new rules will trim the number of issuers, favoring large banks, well-funded fintechs, and prominent Wall Street names. Foreign projects must meet the same standards or quit the United States, turning American oversight into the global benchmark and lifting investor confidence worldwide. - New Standards Inhibit Crypto’s Decentralized Ambitions: Bank-style rules keep licensed stablecoins safe for big institutions, but they push algorithmic and censorship-resistant coins offshore–stifling market competition. ### 2. Full 1:1 Reserve Backing With High-Quality Liquid Assets #### Overview Under §4(a)(1) of the GENIUS Act, every dollar-pegged stablecoin must be matched by one dollar of ultra-safe, liquid assets. Qualifying collateral includes physical cash, balances at the Federal Reserve, FDIC-insured bank deposits, treasury bills maturing in 93 days or less, and overnight repos secured by those same T-bills. Tokenized versions of these assets also count. Riskier or longer-dated instruments such as corporate paper, long bonds, and crypto are banned. Furthermore, all reserves must sit in segregated accounts, completely ring-fenced from the issuer’s own funds and other creditors. Lastly, issuers must redeem the tokens for dollars on demand, giving compliant stablecoins the same day-to-day safety and liquidity as a bank deposit. #### Immediate Impact - Full-Reserve Rule Will Make Stablecoins as Safe as Checking Accounts: Every approved stablecoin must keep one real U.S. dollar for every digital coin it issues. Those dollars sit in cash or in very short-term Treasury bills and are spread across several banks. That almost eliminates the risk of a peg breaking or a redemption run, so holders can treat the coin like money in a checking account–even during a crisis. - T-Bill Reserve Rule Set to Boost Issuer Profits–and Safety: Issuers have to hold only the safest reserves–short-term Treasury bills or insured bank deposits–instead of riskier IOUs. They keep the interest those reserves earn, turning stablecoins into a tightly watched but still profitable business where safety and earnings go hand in hand. #### Long-Term Implications - Ready for Everyday Payments: Every regulated stablecoin holds a real dollar–either cash or a short-term Treasury bill–for every coin it issues. That gives it the same safety as a money-market fund, so people can trust it for shopping, payroll, or sending money abroad. Because the coins settle in real time 24/7, they can grow from crypto trading tools into everyday payment options at scale. - Stablecoin Rules Will Send Billions into T-Bills: Because regulated stablecoins must keep their reserves in only the safest, shortest-term assets–T-bills, Fed reverse-repo balances, or insured bank deposits–hundreds of billions of dollars will flow into those markets. The issuers start to resemble digital narrow banks (institutions that issue tokens fully backed by safe and liquid assets), bolstering short-term dollar demand and strengthening U.S. currency dominance. ### 3. Mandatory Compliance with AML and Sanctions Laws #### Overview Under §10 of the GENIUS Act, a stablecoin issuer is legally treated the same as a bank or money transmitter under the Bank Secrecy Act. That designation forces every issuer to run full Know-Your-Customer checks, monitor transactions in real time, and file Suspicious Activity Reports with FinCEN. A June 2025 committee amendment raised the bar further, adding mandatory sanctions screening and an examiner-approved AML program as prerequisites for getting or keeping a license. Foreign issuers must either register in the United States or prove their home regime is equally strict; otherwise their tokens cannot be offered to United States users. In short, a GENIUS-compliant stablecoin must follow the same anti-money-laundering playbook that governs traditional banks. #### Immediate Impact - Bank-Style KYC Rules Will Force Non-Compliant Stablecoins Out of the United States: Every stablecoin that wants U.S. customers must now follow full bank-style rules: know-your-customer checks, blacklist screening, and suspicious-activity reports. That turns Circle and Paxos’s voluntary programs into legal requirements and forces looser issuers to tighten controls or leave the United States. The rules build a protective moat for compliant firms and push under-regulated rivals to register, merge, or exit. - AML-Cleared Stablecoins Lose DeFi Ethos: GENIUS-approved stablecoins must pass full anti-money-laundering checks–cutting legal risk for investors, custodians, and exchanges. However, those same controls let issuers or regulators freeze addresses and blacklist wallets, adding extra steps and chipping away at crypto’s original permissionless ideals. #### Long-Term Implications - Stablecoins Will Graduate To Institutional Money: With full bank-style checks for money laundering and sanctions, GENIUS-approved stablecoins become safe, dollar-backed digital cash that companies, payment networks, and even central banks can trust. Because they plug straight into today’s payment rails, banks and fintechs will be able to use these crypto dollars for cross-border payments, currency trades, and trade-finance deals. - Freeze Powers Could Push Neutral DeFi Off U.S. Liquidity Rails: The same rules that satisfy regulators also let issuers freeze wallets on a blacklist, weakening the censorship-resistance that first attracted many people to crypto. DeFi apps that require total neutrality may skip these licensed coins and seek liquidity elsewhere. ### 4. Protection of Stablecoin Holders in Insolvency #### Overview Section 10(d)(2) of the GENIUS Act makes stablecoin reserves legally untouchable by anyone except the coin-holders themselves. If an issuer fails, the pile of cash and short-term Treasuries backing the tokens are not part of the bankruptcy estate; they are set aside exclusively for redemptions. Should that pot turn out to be short–for example, if the issuer cheated on reserves–holders leap to the very front of the creditor line. They will outrank secured lenders, lawyers, and even tax claims for the missing amount. Regulators also get standing in court to enforce these rights, and if the issuer is a bank or credit union, the usual FDIC-style receivership rules apply. In short, GENIUS gives stablecoin users the same–or better–legal priority that depositors and brokerage customers enjoy today. #### Immediate Impact - Bankruptcy-Proof Trusts Will Give Stablecoins Deposit-Level Safety: The new “super-priority” rule will make every issuer keep the dollars that back its stablecoin in a stand-alone trust that creditors can’t touch, even if the company goes bankrupt. That means holders can count on getting their money back, putting GENIUS-approved coins in the same safety league as insured bank deposits. - Super-Safe Coins Will Trigger an Audit Blitz: Big companies, exchanges, and crypto custodians can treat these coins like cash in the bank, knowing they get paid before anyone else if an issuer fails. Expect a wave of glossy audit reports and legal letters as issuers rush to prove their reserves are rock-solid. #### Long-Term Implications - Could Pull Big Corporate Cash Out of Banks: GENIUS-approved stablecoins are fully backed by short-term Treasuries and put holders first in line if an issuer fails. That safety could entice companies to park large cash balances in these coins instead of uninsured bank deposits, shifting billions into Treasuries and Fed facilities and quietly changing how banks fund themselves. - FDIC-Style Rescue Plans Will Make Digital Dollars “Risk-Free”: DeFi apps can adopt GENIUS stablecoins without worrying about a sudden collapse. If an issuer ever gets into trouble, an FDIC-style rescue plan can transfer or shut it down smoothly, avoiding market panic. That makes these digital dollars about as close to “risk-free” as laws can get. ### 5. Stablecoins Are Not Securities or Commodities #### Overview Section 17(a) of the GENIUS Act rewrites U.S. financial law to say a fully licensed, fully backed “payment stablecoin” is not a security and not a commodity. That single clause removes the SEC and CFTC from the picture, putting primary supervision with banking regulators such as the Fed, OCC, or state banking departments. The carve-out also shields issuers from being labeled “investment companies,” so they are not treated like mutual funds just because they hold Treasuries in reserve. In effect, a GENIUS-compliant token is classified as digital cash or stored value, not an investment product or derivative. The clear legal dividing line applies only to licensed issuers. An unlicensed dollar token is still illegal and could face the old legal uncertainties. #### Immediate Impact - SEC/CFTC Will Step Back: With the SEC and CFTC officially stepping back, firms no longer worry that a stablecoin will suddenly be labeled an unregistered security. That clear signal should push broker-dealers, banks, and major fintech apps to add U.S. stablecoins to their platforms, opening new payment and settlement uses almost overnight. - Single Watchdog Will Let Stablecoins Evolve Safely: As soon as the law kicks in, licensed stablecoins will answer to a single bank-style regulator instead of a patchwork of agencies. If they keep a strict one-to-one dollar reserve, issuers can roll out new wallet features and smart-contract add-ons without triggering securities or commodities rules. #### Long-Term Implications - Legal Certainty Will Put Stablecoins on a Path to Fed Rails: A clear legal label lets companies pour long-term money into stablecoin infrastructure. Banks, big firms, and even internet-of-things devices could start using the tokens as everyday dollars–bypassing broker-dealer red tape. If the system proves safe, the Fed may eventually let issuers connect straight to its payment rails because these coins now look more like deposits than securities. - U.S. Rulebook Exports Dollar Dominance: The GENIUS Act wipes out loopholes and legal risks that once scared stablecoin issuers, turning the United States into the safest place to launch and hold dollar-backed coins. Foreign projects will gravitate to the U.S. rulebook, boosting the dollar’s dominance in digital markets and sidelining unlicensed or high-risk algorithmic coins. ## Wrap Up The GENIUS Act represents a landmark attempt to merge the crypto-dollar ecosystem with the stability of traditional finance. In summary: - Stablecoins are about to become a regulated currency–issued only by approved entities under bank-like rules. - If signed into law, this will likely de-risk USD stablecoins significantly, making them more viable for large-scale use. - The macro ripple effects–from increased Treasury demand to shifts in bank deposit patterns–bear close watching, as stablecoins could subtly reshape short-term interest rates and dollar flows. - The GENIUS Act is also a statement of geopolitical intent: it’s the United States saying it wants to lead in digital currency innovation, not suppress it, but on its own terms of safety and control. - By turning stablecoins into plug-and-play digital dollars, the GENIUS Act could fast-track mainstream crypto adoption. It enables blockchain rails to be woven into everyday payments, payroll, and capital-markets settlement–making crypto a critical layer of U.S. financial infrastructure. The GENIUS Act is poised to bring stablecoins from the Wild West to Wall Street and Main Street. It reflects a balanced philosophy: embrace the innovation of digital dollars, but insist they play by rules that protect users and the financial system. For investors, this could unlock new opportunities by making the crypto-dollar a truly robust instrument that bridges worlds. As always, the devil will be in the details of implementation, but the direction is set: the U.S. is serious about making stablecoins safe, liquid, and innovative in order to secure the future of the dollar. Keep watching Capitol Hill; the GENIUS Act’s passage will redefine decentralized finance and propel the United States to the forefront of crypto. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations. --- ## The Reserve Asset Thesis URL: https://triplepointstrategy.com/insights/the-reserve-asset-thesis/ Published: 2025-06-14 Author: The Triple Point Strategy Team ## Key Takeaways - Bitcoin is emerging as a strategic reserve asset for corporations and governments, with institutional adoption still in its early innings and significant upside remaining. - Ethereum is positioned to follow, offering a yield-bearing alternative with growing traction from major financial players and tokenization infrastructure. - Adoption is accelerating across corporate and government balance sheets, driven by real-world case studies, favorable legislation, and a shifting macro landscape. - This moment offers a unique advantage for individual investors—to act ahead of the institutional curve and capture asymmetric returns before broader adoption makes it consensus. ## Opportunity Advertised In Plain Sight If you were browsing Reddit in 2013, you might have stumbled upon this crude drawing of a wizard. It was an ad for Reddit’s Bitcoin subreddit, and most people would have reasonably scrolled by without giving it much thought. Those who decided to learn more about the technology however had a chance to make a potentially life changing investment. Around that time a single Bitcoin was trading for $26, and a $1,000 investment made back then would be worth about $4 million today. Looking at Bitcoin’s market capitalization, it’s easy to feel like you’re late to the party. A single Bitcoin is now trading at over $100,000. Despite the parabolic growth, there are signals suggesting that you are not late to the party. In fact, it is actually just getting started. ## Stronger Demand Signals Than Ever The signs of opportunity are louder and clearer than they have ever been. You don’t need to hope you’ll stumble into the next life changing investment on Reddit. If you read the headlines on CNBC and other financial news outlets, the next investment megatrend seems pretty clear: Crypto will become a standard reserve asset on almost every corporate and government balance sheet. Right now, Bitcoin is the most likely cryptocurrency to achieve that accolade. We don’t think it will be the only one, but we’ll cover that in more detail later. Arguing this for Bitcoin isn’t a particularly wild call to make. The fundamentals make sense and we are already seeing it play out in the market. ### Why Add Bitcoin To The Balance Sheet? “Bitcoin is digital gold” is the phrase you’ll most often hear when someone is making a case for it to be on the balance sheet. The thesis here is that Bitcoin is positioned well to become a credible hedge against currency devaluation and systemic risk just like gold. We acknowledge that Bitcoin doesn’t have the same intrinsic value as gold. With that being said, Bitcoin does have several properties where it is better than gold: 1. Known Scarcity = Predicable Store of Value Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million units, whereas the total supply of gold is still unknown. For a balance sheet, this offers long-term predictability and the protection of purchasing power. 2. Portability = Operational Flexibility $100 million in Bitcoin can be moved across borders or between custodians in minutes. Moving $100 million in gold requires a fork lift and logistical overhead. Bitcoin is not just convenient, it reduces costs, enhances mobility, and ensures sovereign or corporate reserves can be rebalanced quickly in times of crisis. 3. Verifiability = Auditability and Compliance Every unit of Bitcoin can be independently verified on the blockchain. This enables real-time auditability and transparency, which is key for both compliance and third party deals. 4. Asymmetrical Upside = Long-Term Strategic Alpha Gold is already a $20 trillion market. Bitcoin, at around $2 trillion, has significantly more upside if it reaches even partial parity to gold. 5. Global Neutrality = Strategic Sovereign Hedge Bitcoin is not controlled by any country, central bank, or corporate entity. In an increasingly multipolar world, this neutrality makes it an appealing strategic asset for countries seeking to diversify away from USD hegemony or for corporations exposed to geopolitical volatility. If the thesis holds true and Bitcoin does become digital gold, then treasurers managing multi-billion-dollar balance sheets have a risk-aware way to capture long-term upside. At the same time they can also hedge against monetary debasement and systemic risk. These benefits aren’t just a concept. We are already seeing corporations take advantage of what Bitcoin has to offer when it is added to the balance sheet. ### Corporations Are Already Adopting The Strategy Adding Bitcoin to the corporate balance sheet is not just an idea, it's being seen as a viable business strategy. MicroStrategy is currently the poster child for how a Bitcoin-focused reserve asset strategy can pay off. It was a declining software business that began accumulating Bitcoin in August 2020 and has grown to accumulate over $63 billion in holdings. The company’s market capitalization is up almost 3,000% since it implemented the strategy, and its CEO shows no signs of slowing down. MicroStrategy has since mostly transitioned to a “Bitcoin Treasury Company” where it primarily delivers shareholder value by buying and holding Bitcoin. Metaplanet Inc., a declining Japanese hotel management company, took note of MicroStrategy’s success. It started buying Bitcoin at the end of 2024 and has since completely reoriented the company. Now every decision at Metaplanet aims to maximize the Bitcoin holdings per share. The change is paying off with its market capitalization up 138X since making the pivot. It's hard to overstate just how much of a game changer MicroStrategy’s playbook has become. With that being said, turnaround companies aren’t the only ones that are adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet. Tesla, Coinbase, and Block (formally Square) are just a few examples of more than 70 other corporations that hold Bitcoin. We expect the amount of capital that firms are allocating to Bitcoin to grow and are not the only ones who believe it. Bernstein Research estimates there will be $330 billion in corporate Bitcoin inflows by 2029. Ark Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report projects that Bitcoin could wind up accounting for 1-10% of global corporate treasuries by 2030. If the high end of that target is reached, we may see a single Bitcoin trade at $1,500,000. ### The Case For A Snowball Effect We don’t expect megacap stocks like Amazon or Microsoft to start adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet in the near-term. This is because there is no catalyst forcing them to implement such a strategy. In fact, Microsoft shareholders rejected a proposal to do so at the end of 2024. Right now, the ideal company to buy Bitcoin is one with a declining or stagnant business model. Gamestop is a great example. It sold $1.5 billion in convertible debt back in March 2025 for the purposes of buying Bitcoin. So far it has used approximately $500 million of those proceeds to buy 4,710 Bitcoins. As new companies start to buy and hold Bitcoin, its price should naturally rise from increased demand and limited supply. We expect the combination of price appreciation, and potential for enterprise value accrual, to encourage the next incremental CEO with a slowing business to buy in. This has the ability to start a snowball effect of new corporate buyers and upward price pressure. At some tipping point shareholders will expect Bitcoin to be on the balance sheet at which point our prediction will have come true. ## Governments Are Getting In On The Action Corporations aren’t the only entities interested in accumulating Bitcoin. U.S. federal and state governments are putting forward legislation to make it legal for them to hold Bitcoin as a reserve asset. In March 2025, the Trump administration announced an executive order to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a US Digital Asset Stockpile. The BITCOIN Act of 2025 takes that executive order a step further and aims to codify the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve into law. At the state level, New Hampshire and Arizona have successfully passed legislation that allows them to hold digital assets. Texas’ bill has passed the House of Representatives and is awaiting signature from governor Greg Abbott. There are 17 other states which are currently pushing digital asset bills through the legislative process. The U.S. isn’t the only country thinking about Bitcoin as a strategic asset. Pakistan announced its intentions to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve at the Bitcoin 2025 conference. Brazil is currently working on legislation for a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Poland, Switzerland, and other European countries have also been discussing the potential to create these digital asset reserves. Ark Invest estimates that nation-states could hold 0.5%-7% of their treasury in Bitcoin by 2030. Similar to corporate purchases, government purchases of Bitcoin appear set up for a snowball effect too. If we start to see more momentum for countries to buy Bitcoin, it’s possible to see how a global arms race could be sparked to secure as much of the asset as possible. ## Ethereum Could Be Next While most of the institutional momentum today is focused on Bitcoin, another high-potential reserve asset is emerging: Ethereum. As the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Ethereum is a foundational layer for what many believe is the future of finance. We believe Ethereum has several properties that give it a credible path to join Bitcoin on corporate and government balance sheets. 1. Highly Decentralized & Reliable = Asset Sovereignty Without Fragility Like Bitcoin, Ethereum’s decentralization makes it nearly impossible for any government or actor to seize, freeze, or censor transactions. Ethereum has also never experienced an outage since launching in 2015, despite continued and highly complex upgrades on the network. This level of decentralization and uptime is key for both sovereign or institutional treasury use. 2. Large Market Capitalization = Institutional Eligibility For Texas and New Hampshire, only cryptocurrencies with a market capitalization above $500 billion are eligible to be held on their balance sheets. Bitcoin is currently the only asset that qualifies. Ethereum has a market capitalization of around $300 billion. If Ethereum crosses that threshold, and other governments follow similar guidance, it becomes the only Bitcoin alternative to a pool of government buyers. 3. Institutional Adoption = Growing Validation BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has tokenized over $2.5 billion in assets for its BUIDL fund on Ethereum. This is a serious endorsement and a strong signal to other financial institutions on where to build their own tokenized financial products. Firms choosing to build on Ethereum have good reason to hold the core asset that is needed to interact with the ecosystem. 4. Natively Productive = A Crypto Treasury Bond Equivalent Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum is yield-bearing like a government bond or dividend stock. For entities seeking a mix of income generation and capital appreciation, Ethereum offers a structurally different and complementary profile to Bitcoin. 5. Programmatic Monetary Policy = Digital Inflation Hedge with Flexibility Ethereum doesn’t have a fixed supply like Bitcoin, however it does have a dynamic monetary policy. The rate of issuance is algorithmically adjusted based on network activity, and in periods of high usage Ethereum can become net deflationary. This creates a flexible, yet transparent hedge against inflation and aligns well with long-term reserve principles. Similarly to Bitcoin, Ethereum is already being added to corporate and government balance sheets. Coinbase, the state of Michigan, and several other crypto-focused companies currently hold approximately $2.5 billion of Ethereum on their balance sheets. In May 2025, SharpLink Gaming announced it had raised $425 million to make a similar transition as MicroStrategy and Metaplanet. However in this case, SharpLink Gaming plans to purchase Ethereum instead of Bitcoin. It has also announced plans to sell $1 billion in new stock with the sole purpose of buying Ethereum. As noted previously, in the near-term we expect most companies and governments to be adding Bitcoin to their balance sheet. With that being said, we also have strong conviction over a 5 year time horizon that more capital will be allocated to Ethereum as a strategic reserve asset. ## Where The Thesis Could Break It should be clear that we have strong conviction in Bitcoin and Ethereum’s ability to become strategic reserve assets. However, no thesis is bullet proof and it's critical to consider where things might break. Risks we will be watching for include: 1. Legislative & Regulatory Changes While the U.S. federal government and regulatory bodies (e.g. SEC) are currently taking steps toward crypto acceptance, a future administration or globally coordinated regulatory effort could create hostile conditions. Aggressive capital controls, excessive taxation, or constraints on corporate treasury exposure to digital assets could significantly hamper adoption in the U.S. 2. Bitcoin’s Ability To Adapt To Protocol Risks Bitcoin has operated flawlessly for 15+ years; however since nobody owns the network any major changes to the protocol require broad social consensus. Historically we’ve seen seemingly small changes, such as an increase in block size, struck down by Bitcoin’s Core Developer community. Quantum computing and a shrinking security budget are also real upcoming threats that need solutions. The Bitcoin community must decide where it is willing to concede on the original Bitcoin vision in order to stay relevant. 3. Security Breaches & Custodial Risk Despite the inherent security of blockchain technology, the ecosystem around it is still evolving. Major hacks of exchanges, custodial services, or corporate wallets could erode confidence in holding digital assets, particularly for risk-averse treasuries. While corporations and governments would likely use highly secure, regulated custodians, a significant and widespread security event could create a chilling effect on adoption. Despite the risks that have been outlined above, we are incredibly optimistic on the future of Bitcoin and Ethereum as reserve assets on both corporate and government balance sheets. ## Front Run Their Balance Sheet With Your Own When it comes to adding crypto to the balance sheet, we are at a special moment in time. We are clearly in the innovators portion of the adoption curve, however the writing is on the wall that billions (if not trillions) of dollars will be poured into Bitcoin and Ethereum over time. Corporations and governments have to go through formal processes and bureaucratic red tape to add digital assets to their balance sheets. You as an individual do not. So if you believe in the thesis, here is your opportunity to get ahead of the next big wave of demand. ## About Triple Point Strategy Triple Point Strategy is a research firm and crypto investment manager. We operate the Marietta DeFi Fund, a crypto investment fund that is focused on capital appreciation and DeFi-native income strategies. It is currently available to U.S. accredited investors. Subscribe below to receive our latest insights directly in your inbox. For U.S. accredited investors only. Offered under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or tax advice. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. Any investment may only be made through the Fund's confidential offering documents. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of capital. Digital assets are volatile and subject to changing regulations.